{"title":"An Analysis of State–Local Government Capital Expenditure During the 2000s","authors":"R. Fisher, Robert W. Wassmer","doi":"10.1111/pbaf.12062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12062","url":null,"abstract":"Capital expenditure by subnational governments in the United States represents about two percent of GDP and 12 percent of state–local spending. Persistent differences among states exist in the amount and composition of this capital expenditure. This regression‐based research examines for the decade of the 2000s: (1) the factors affecting capital spending and interstate differences; (2) the effect of recessions; (3) the response to American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) stimulus funds; (4) state and year fixed effects; and (5) investment for highways and K‐12 education. Aggregate capital expenditure is relatively stable, although it increased around recessions, with ARRA grants especially important and substantial state‐specific influences.","PeriodicalId":135866,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Public Budgeting & Finance","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117289975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Risky Business: Willingness to Pay for Disaster Preparedness","authors":"Amy K. Donahue","doi":"10.1111/pbaf.12051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12051","url":null,"abstract":"A primary government responsibility is ensuring citizen safety and security. Individuals share responsibility for their own protection, but research shows they are typically under‐prepared. Despite a growing literature, broad gaps remain in our understanding of people's preparedness choices. This paper focuses on two empirical objectives: understanding people's assessments of the risks they face and their preparedness to meet them, and examining the extent to which people are willing to pay to improve community‐level preparedness and individual household preparedness. These objectives are grounded in descriptive analysis of people's perceptions of risk and preparedness. The analysis draws on two original national random surveys of household decision‐makers. The findings yield insight into people's support for preparedness and potential response to incentive programs that can inform more effective program designs.","PeriodicalId":135866,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Public Budgeting & Finance","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114183096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Evaluating the Validity and Reliability of the Financial Condition Index for Local Governments","authors":"Benjamin Y. Clark","doi":"10.1111/pbaf.12063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12063","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the financial condition of local governments is important for public managers and elected officials as they work to align revenues with public demands for services, while maintaining financial solvency. This task becomes even more important when the economic and financial environment, over which local officials have little to no control, is collapsing around them. This article seeks to expand the literature of measuring financial condition of local governments by testing the validity and reliability of the Financial Condition Index (FCI). The FCI is a framework for evaluating financial condition that was initially developed by Groves, Godsey, and Shulman (1981) and later applied in US state-level studies by a number of scholars (Wang, Dennis, and Tu 2007; Arnett 2011). The results from this article cast serious doubt on the applicability of using the FCI, and the four associated solvency dimensions, as an appropriate methodology for evaluating local government financial condition.","PeriodicalId":135866,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Public Budgeting & Finance","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124915435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Rube Goldberg Machine of Budget Implementation, or is There a Structural Deficit in the New York City Budget?","authors":"Daniel W. Williams, J. Onochie","doi":"10.1111/j.1540-5850.2013.12021.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5850.2013.12021.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the case of continuous budgeting both preadoption and postadoption in New York City and considers matters of forecast bias, rebudgeting, and the belief that New York City remains in structural deficit which has been cited as a continuing source of concern since New York City's 1970s fiscal crisis. The asserted structural deficit is a rationale for reducing spending in the prebudget and postbudget adoption periods. Williams ([Williams, Daniel W., 2012]), shows that New York City's revenue forecasts are biased to underestimation, exacerbating over longer horizons. This paper examines expenditure estimates, reductions and within‐year modifications over the first decade of the twenty‐first century. If there is a structural deficit, expenditures would exceed revenues in forecasts by more than offsetting forecast biases. However, there are other reasons expenditures may exceed revenues in forecasts. Late term increases in expenditure estimates suggest deliberate choices, which cannot be termed “structural.” Expenditure changes follow changing revenue particularly in the postadoption period. This rebudgeting practice does not reflect fiscal stress; it is part of a complex method of producing a surreptitious budget stabilization fund, reallocations favored by the mayor, and possibly shifting of the budget towards capital uses with little broad public discussion. These observed effects are somewhat consistent with effective financial management, but are nontransparent and inconsistent with democratic participation. Policy recommendations aim at restoring transparency and democratic oversight.","PeriodicalId":135866,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Public Budgeting & Finance","volume":"331 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115876124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is a Penny Spent a Penny Earned? Comparing Predicted to Actual Disability Insurance Savings in the Ticket to Work Program","authors":"A. Burns","doi":"10.1111/j.1540-5850.2013.12020.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5850.2013.12020.x","url":null,"abstract":"This article compares Disability Insurance (DI) savings to those projected in the Congressional Budget Office cost estimate accompanying the Ticket to Work (TTW) authorizing legislation. Enacted with the goal of promoting employment among DI beneficiaries, TTW savings were close to predicted savings, but economic conditions reduced the impact. These findings suggest vocational rehabilitation policies need to incorporate strategies to address economic downtowns if they are to promote long‐term independence. This article highlights some of the challenges inherent to evaluations conducted without an experimental research design, while illustrating the potential of ex post analyses to assess whether expected savings materialize.","PeriodicalId":135866,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Public Budgeting & Finance","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115907335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Opportunity Cost of Public Funds: Concepts and Issues","authors":"Jérôme Massiani, Gabriele Picco","doi":"10.1111/j.1540-5850.2013.12016.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5850.2013.12016.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reviews the main conceptual issues regarding the notion of Opportunity Cost of Public Funds (OCPF) and its use in normative economics. This notion occupies only a marginal and sometimes anecdotal role in the public economic literature and appears to be too often used without the definitional unambiguousness that would make it helpful for economic analysis. This situation is unsatisfactory considering the importance of (some of) the mechanisms described by the concept and the magnitude of these effects that are such as to heavily impact any budgetary practice. We find that among the mechanisms that economists call \"opportunity costs\" the deadweight loss and, to a lesser extent, administrative costs seem to be the most relevant, whereas the impact of the crowding out is more discussible. We also analyze how the question of opportunity costs is contingent upon some hypothesis about the financing mechanism of the public expenditures and we suggest that the most likely situation is the one where public expenses are financed through the eviction of other alternative uses of the public funding. We also provide a review of available quantifications and recommendations to the practitioners.","PeriodicalId":135866,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Public Budgeting & Finance","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126210172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Agricultural Use‐Value Property Tax Assessment: Estimation and Policy Issues","authors":"John E. Anderson","doi":"10.1111/j.1540-5850.2012.01025.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5850.2012.01025.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides an overview of the theory and methods used to implement use-value property tax assessment for agricultural land in the United States. After a critical review of the methods used by various states in their application of use-value statutes for agricultural land, the paper examines several policy issues related to the estimation and application of use-value assessment methods. Five state case studies are included, providing an overview of methods used in use-value assessment, and suggestions are provided regarding several ways in which use-value assessment methods need to be improved.","PeriodicalId":135866,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Public Budgeting & Finance","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124986747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Politics of Forecast Bias: Forecaster Effect and Other Effects in New York City Revenue Forecasting","authors":"Daniel W. Williams","doi":"10.1111/j.1540-5850.2012.01021.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5850.2012.01021.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of forecasters, horizons, revenue categories, and forecast timing in relation to decision making on forecast bias or accuracy. The significant findings are: for the most part forecasters tend to report forecasts that are similar rather than competitive. Forecast bias (underforecasting) increases over longer horizons; consequently claims of structural budget deficit are suspect, as an assertion of structural deficit requires that a reliable forecast of revenue shows continuous shortfall compared with a reliable forecast of expenditures. There is an overforecasting bias in property tax, possibly reflecting demand for services. There is an underforecasting forecast bias in two revenue categories, all other taxes and federal categorical grants, resulting in a net total underforecasting bias for the city's revenue. There appears to be a period effect (forecasts in June are substantially biased), but this effect requires further study. The study suggests further examination of the bias associated with revenue categories, time within the budget cycle, and forecast horizon.","PeriodicalId":135866,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Public Budgeting & Finance","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116237241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"PART in Retrospect: An Examination of Legislators' Attitudes Toward Part","authors":"Odd J. Stalebrink, Velda Frisco","doi":"10.1111/j.1540-5850.2011.00977.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5850.2011.00977.x","url":null,"abstract":"This research adds insight into the congressional reaction to the Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART) by exploring the influence of individual legislators' personal experiences and ideological position on their attitude toward PART. Specifically, the factors explored include ideological position held by legislators, level of business experience, level of campaign financing received from political action committees (PACs), years spent in Congress, seniority, and congressional chamber. The results indicate that legislators with higher levels of business experience generally were more supportive of PART and that the length of time they had served in Congress and the amount of campaign contributions they had received from PACs were negatively related to PART support. The study also provides insights into legislators' overall exposure and sentiment toward PART. The data indicates that only a small proportion of legislators clearly expressed positive or negative opinions toward PART, despite widespread exposure to the tool. These findings are important in that they contribute toward a more comprehensive understanding of the congressional reaction to PART and offer further insights into the challenges of securing congressional buy‐in for executive performance budgeting initiatives.","PeriodicalId":135866,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Public Budgeting & Finance","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116529928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Growth and Stability of the Local Tax Revenue in Japan","authors":"K. Ishida","doi":"10.1111/j.1540-5850.2011.00974.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5850.2011.00974.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the elasticity of the local tax revenue in Japan and analyzes the growth and stability of the Japanese local tax system. The main estimated results are as follows. The growth taxes in the long run are the Individual Enterprise Tax and the Fixed Asset Tax. There are no stable taxes in the short run. The total amount of prefectural tax revenue is low growth in the long run and unstable in the short run. The total amount of municipal tax revenue is low growth in the long run and neutral in the short run. The total amount of the local tax revenue in the prefecture and the municipality does not have stability and growth.","PeriodicalId":135866,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Public Budgeting & Finance","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122180553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}