ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic)最新文献

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Asset Pricing with Extreme Liquidity Risk 极端流动性风险下的资产定价
ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-06-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2850278
Ying Wu
{"title":"Asset Pricing with Extreme Liquidity Risk","authors":"Ying Wu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2850278","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2850278","url":null,"abstract":"Defining extreme liquidity as the tail of the illiquidity for all stocks, I propose a direct measure of market-wide extreme liquidity risk and find that it is priced cross-sectionally in the U.S. Between 1973 and 2014, the stocks in the highest quintile of extreme liquidity risk loadings earned value-weighted average returns 5.6% per year higher than the stocks in the lowest quintile. The extreme liquidity risk premium is robust to common risk factors related to size, value, and momentum, and is different from that on aggregate liquidity risk documented in Pastor and Stambaugh (2003) as well as that based on the tail risk of Kelly and Jiang (2014). Extreme liquidity risk can provide an advanced warning about extreme liquidity events, and it reliably outperforms aggregate liquidity measures in predicting future market returns. I incorporate extreme liquidity risk into Acharya and Pedersen’s (2005) framework and find new supporting evidence for their liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model. I explore potential economic mechanisms through which the rare and large fluctuations in stock-level liquidity risks are priced.","PeriodicalId":130177,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134209180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 17
Dynamics of Market Anomalies and Measurement Errors of Risk-Free Interest Rates 市场异常动态与无风险利率计量误差
ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-06-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2934769
C. Hui, C. Lo, Chin-To Fung
{"title":"Dynamics of Market Anomalies and Measurement Errors of Risk-Free Interest Rates","authors":"C. Hui, C. Lo, Chin-To Fung","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2934769","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2934769","url":null,"abstract":"Two-market anomalies since the 2008 global financial crisis – the widespread failure of covered interest parity (CIP) in foreign exchange swaps and negative 30-year US dollar interest rate swap-Treasury spreads have been challenging for conventional asset pricing models. Using a three-factor non-Gaussian-term structure model for the US Treasuries, an estimated short-rate premium tends to move in tandem with the CIP deviations and negative swap spread. The dynamics between the premium and two-market anomalies are found to be cointegrated, suggesting a long-run equilibrium between them. As the premium is found to be empirically related to demand for Treasuries, including the Fed’s quantitative easing program and demand for safe assets, it may reflect a convenience yield embedded in the yield curve such that the observed Treasury interest rate is lower than the true risk-free interest rate. The anomalies manifest such measurement error as additional spreads on the observed US dollar interest rates for pricing the corresponding instruments, consistent with recent studies that the US dollar and its interest rates play an important role in determining the CIP deviations.","PeriodicalId":130177,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115063869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
No-arbitrage Private Market Equity Prices and Transaction Costs: Generalized IPCPL Theory and Private Market Empirical Tests 无套利私人市场股票价格与交易成本:广义IPCPL理论与私人市场实证检验
ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-03-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2939845
David H Goodman, Malcolm J. McLelland
{"title":"No-arbitrage Private Market Equity Prices and Transaction Costs: Generalized IPCPL Theory and Private Market Empirical Tests","authors":"David H Goodman, Malcolm J. McLelland","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2939845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2939845","url":null,"abstract":"Implied private company pricing line theory (IPCPL theory) is based on the fundamental assumption — taken from modern asset pricing theory — that no arbitrage opportunities exist between pricing of privately- and publicly-held equity. More specifically, IPCPL theory is based on the assumption that no arbitrage opportunities exist resulting from differences in equity sale transaction costs across private and public equity markets, while holding risk exposures and sensitivities constant. This study generalizes IPCPL theory to explain and predict the relationship between equity prices set under conditions where equity transaction costs differ across any market setting — including differences both within and across private and public markets — and then presents preliminary empirical evidence from private capital market data that is largely consistent with the theory.","PeriodicalId":130177,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130224829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Institutional Investors and Equity Prices: Information, Behavioral Bias, and Arbitrage 机构投资者与股票价格:信息、行为偏差和套利
ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2926401
Bing Han, Dongmin Kong
{"title":"Institutional Investors and Equity Prices: Information, Behavioral Bias, and Arbitrage","authors":"Bing Han, Dongmin Kong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2926401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2926401","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates how institutional investors matter for asset pricing by using daily institutional trading data and a natural experiment, the split–share structure reform in China. This reform required all listed companies to convert their non-tradable shares to tradable shares after paying a negotiated compensation. We find that: 1). Only passive institutions are privy to company-specific details: they buy (avoid) shares of companies that end up with high (low) compensation ratios on announcement day T0. 2). Trading halts after T0. On the first subsequent trading day T1, both passive domestic institutions and individuals are prone to the disposition effect: they sell a large and abnormal amount of shares in the reform companies with high unrealized gains accumulated during the non-trading period, and 3). The selling pressure drives stock prices significantly below fair values. Both active and foreign institutions take advantage of the stock undervaluation and earn significant abnormal return, which eliminate stock mispricing.","PeriodicalId":130177,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125498982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Asset Prices and Portfolio Choice with Learning from Experience 从经验中学习资产价格和投资组合选择
ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2378330
P. Ehling, A. Graniero, C. Heyerdahl-Larsen
{"title":"Asset Prices and Portfolio Choice with Learning from Experience","authors":"P. Ehling, A. Graniero, C. Heyerdahl-Larsen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2378330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2378330","url":null,"abstract":"We study asset prices and portfolio choice with overlapping generations where the young disregard history to learn from own experience. Disregarding history implies less precise estimates of consumption growth, which, in equilibrium, leads the young to increase their investment in risky assets after positive returns or act as trend chasers and to lose wealth to the old. Consistent with findings from survey data, the average belief about expected returns in the economy relates negatively to future realized returns and is smoother than objective expected returns. Having especially bad experiences early on in life, cause persistent disagreement and tilt portfolio weights.","PeriodicalId":130177,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130791062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 52
Identifying Price Jumps from Daily Data with Bayesian vs. Non-Parametric Methods 用贝叶斯和非参数方法从每日数据中识别价格跳跃
ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-01-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2903631
Milan Fičura, J. Witzany
{"title":"Identifying Price Jumps from Daily Data with Bayesian vs. Non-Parametric Methods","authors":"Milan Fičura, J. Witzany","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2903631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2903631","url":null,"abstract":"Non-parametric approach to financial time series jump estimation, using the L-Estimator, is compared with the parametric approach utilizing a Stochastic-Volatility-Jump-Diffusion (SVJD) model, estimated with MCMC and extended with Particle Filters to estimate the out-sample evolution of its latent state variables, such as the jump occurrences. The comparison is performed on simulated time series with different kinds of dynamics, including Poisson jumps, self-exciting Hawkes jumps with long-term clustering, as well as co-jumps. In addition to that, a comparison is performed on the real world daily time series of 4 major currency exchange rates. The results from the simulation study show that for the purposes of in-sample estimation does the MCMC based parametric approach significantly outperform the L-Estimator. In the case of the out-sample estimates, based on a combination of MCMC an Particle Filters, used to sequentially estimate the jump occurrences immediately at the times at which the jumps occur, does the parametric approach achieve a similar accuracy as the non-parametric one in the case of the simulations with Poisson jumps that are relatively large, and it outperforms the non-parametric approach in the case of Hawkes jumps when the jumps are large. On the other hand, the L-Estimator provides better results than the parametric approach in all of the cases when the simulated jumps are small (1% or less), regardless of the jump process dynamics. The application of the methods to foreign exchange rate time series further shows that the estimates of the parametric method may be biased in the case when large outlier jumps occur in the time series as well as when the stochastic volatility grows too high (as happened during the crisis). In both of these cases, the non-parametric L-Estimator based approach seems to provide more robust jump estimates, less influenced by the mentioned issues.","PeriodicalId":130177,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117112173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Arrival Rate Functions 到达率函数
ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2879083
D. Madan
{"title":"Arrival Rate Functions","authors":"D. Madan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2879083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2879083","url":null,"abstract":"Asset price dynamics are taken to be accumulations of surprise jumps in the logarithm of prices. A Markov pure jump model is formulated on making variance gamma parameters deterministic functions of the price level. Estimation is done by matrix exponentiation of the transition rate matrix for a continuous time finite state Markov chain approximation. The motion is decomposed into a space dependent drift and a space dependent martingale component. Though there is some local mean reversion by and large the dynamics estimated is that of the momentum type. Risk compensation is seen by a linear relation between the exponential variation and measure distorted variations for the bid and ask prices of two price economies. Estimations are conducted for the S&P 500 index (SPX), the exchange traded fund for the financial sector (XLF), J. P. Morgan stock prices (JPM), the ratio of JPM to XLF and the ratio of XLF to SPX.","PeriodicalId":130177,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129238047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Equilibrium States in OTC Markets with Market Makers 有做市商的场外交易市场的均衡状态
ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-10-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2858448
N. Ndouné, Paul Samuel Njiki Njiki
{"title":"Equilibrium States in OTC Markets with Market Makers","authors":"N. Ndouné, Paul Samuel Njiki Njiki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2858448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2858448","url":null,"abstract":"We show that OTC markets model with several assets (with market makers or not) have a unique steady state. Our proof is based on Rhon’s version of Miranda’s theorem which is a generalization of the intermediate value theorem. In addition, we provide a method for computing this steady state.","PeriodicalId":130177,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124949075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Approximate Arbitrage-Free Option Pricing Under the SABR Model SABR模型下的近似无套利期权定价
ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-10-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2854797
Nian Yang, Nan Chen, Yanchu Liu, Xiangwei Wan
{"title":"Approximate Arbitrage-Free Option Pricing Under the SABR Model","authors":"Nian Yang, Nan Chen, Yanchu Liu, Xiangwei Wan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2854797","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2854797","url":null,"abstract":"The stochastic-alpha-beta-rho (SABR) model introduced by Hagan et al. (2002) provides a popular vehicle to model the implied volatilities in the interest rate and foreign exchange markets. To exclude arbitrage opportunities, we need to specify an absorbing boundary at zero for this model, which the existing analytical approaches to pricing derivatives under the SABR model typically ignore. This paper develops closed-form approximations to the prices of vanilla options to incorporate the effect of such a boundary condition. Different from the traditional normal distribution-based approximations, our method stems from an expansion around a one-dimensional Bessel process. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate its accuracy and efficiency. Furthermore, the explicit expression yielded from our method is appealing from the practical perspective because it can lead to fast calibration, pricing, and hedging.","PeriodicalId":130177,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129514300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
Pricing and Liquidity in Decentralized Asset Markets 分散资产市场的定价与流动性
ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-09-21 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2841919
Semih Uslu
{"title":"Pricing and Liquidity in Decentralized Asset Markets","authors":"Semih Uslu","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2841919","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2841919","url":null,"abstract":"I develop a search‐and‐bargaining model of endogenous intermediation in over‐the‐counter markets. Unlike the existing work, my model allows for rich investor heterogeneity in three simultaneous dimensions: preferences, inventories, and meeting rates. By comparing trading‐volume patterns that arise in my model and are observed in practice, I argue that the heterogeneity in meeting rates is the main driver of intermediation patterns. I find that investors with higher meeting rates (i.e., fast investors) are less averse to holding inventories and more attracted to cash earnings, which makes the model corroborate a number of stylized facts that do not emerge from existing models: (i) fast investors provide intermediation by charging a \u0000 speed premium, and (ii) fast investors hold more extreme inventories. Then, I use the model to study the effect of trading frictions on the supply and price of liquidity. On social welfare, I show that the interaction of meeting rate heterogeneity with optimal inventory management makes the equilibrium inefficient. I provide a financial transaction tax/subsidy scheme that corrects this inefficiency, in which fast investors cross‐subsidize slow investors.\u0000","PeriodicalId":130177,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134161401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 76
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