Health Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Assessing index of accumulated cytogenetic disorders in workers employed in metallurgy under exposure to adverse occupaitonal factors","authors":"N. Vlasova, L. Masyagutova, E. R. Abdrakhmanova, L. A. Rafikova, G. M. Chudnovets","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.11.eng","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.11.eng","url":null,"abstract":"Metallurgy is a major economic branch in Russia with more than 4000 enterprises operating in it and seventy percent of them being city-forming ones. This study focuses on cytological assessment of the oral mucosa and secretion from the middle meatus mucosa in workers employed in metallurgy. The aim of this study was to investigate cytological laboratory indicators in workers employed in metallurgy under exposure to adverse occupational factors. A clinical and diagnostic examination of workers employed at a metallurgical plant in Bashkortostan was performed in 2019–2020; it involved cytological studies of the oral mucosa (buccal epithelium) and the middle meatus mucosa (rhinocytogram). In this study, we applied the Index of cytogenetic disorders accumulation (Iac) that allows for cellular kinetics indicators. The overall hygienic assessment of working conditions for workers employed at the analyzed metallurgic plant corresponds to the hazard category 3.2–3.3 in accordance with the criteria outlined in the Guide R (harmful, class 2 or 3). The research results revealed cytogenetic disorders of buccal epithelial cells in the workers who had contacts with adverse occupational factors. Low likelihood of cytogenetic disorders was established for 66.67 % of the workers; moderate, 9.2 %; high, 23.81 %. We assessed rhinocytograms of the workers exposed to adverse occupational factors and revealed some signs of allergic inflammation characterized with high eosinophil count. The research results confirm high significance of diagnostic procedures for developing an algorithm for screening examinations of working population as well as indicators of health disorders under exposure to adverse occupational factors (noise, heating microclimate, industrial dust, gaseous chemicals).","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48629866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing risks of functional disorders of hepatobiliary system in workers employed at butyl rubber production allowing for analysis of the ogg1 gene polymorphic variant rs1052133","authors":"E. R. Kudoyarov, D. Karimov, A. Bakirov, G. F. Mukhammadieva, L. K. Karimova, R. Galimova","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.17","url":null,"abstract":"Contemporary petrochemical productions maintain strict control over contents of adverse chemicals in workplace air. Despite that, the chemical factor remains one of the major harmful occupational factors and can produce adverse effects on workers’ health by increasing, among other things, risks of general somatic diseases. Given that, prevention of chronic non-communicable diseases in workers employed at chemical productions remains a vital challenge for occupational medicine. A way to tackle it is to timely detect risk groups relying on, among other things, analysis of workers’ genetic peculiarities. This article presents a study with 140 volunteers participating in it; they had basic occupations required at contemporary butyl rubber production. It was conducted within a periodical medical examination that involved using up-to-date hygienic, clinical-laboratory and genetic methods. The study included hygienic assessment of the chemical factor at the analyzed production, examination of hematologic and biochemical blood indicators, identification of workers’ genetic status as per the rs1052133 polymorphic variant of the OGG1 gene and the severity of DNA breaks. The study revealed adverse effects produced by the chemical factors on health of workers with basic occupations based on deviations in biochemical blood indicators obtained by tests that included indicator enzyme identification, and DNA damage. Following the study results, a risk group was created as per the state of the hepatobiliary system. To preserve workers’ health, it is necessary to implement certain preventive measures that include providing safe working conditions as regards the chemical factor, timely detection of risk groups and rehabilitation activities.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46724536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Scientific substantiation of priority chemicals, objects for setting quotas and trends in mitigating airborne public health risks within activities per-formed by the sanitary service of the Russian Federation","authors":"N. Zaitseva, I. May, D. Kiryanov, D. V. Goryaev","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.01","url":null,"abstract":"The study was conducted due to the necessity to streamline management of ambient air quality in large industrial cities in the country. The relevant tasks were set within the ‘Clean Air’ Federal project and the system for setting emission quotas. The aim was to develop scientific-methodical approaches that would support Rospotrebnadzor in performing its functions and duties as regards management of ambient air quality, including those accomplished within the ‘Clean Air’ Federal project. We took into account that initial data for the whole system for setting emission quotas were represented by aggregated calculation of pollutant dispersion. The study relied on input and output data provided by the ‘Ekolog-Gorod’ software package for calculating ambient air pollution. This software employs methods for calculating emission diffusion in ambient air that are applied as standards in Russia. Calculations were accomplished at points located within residential areas in the analyzed cities and covered not less than 20 major contributions made by emission sources to levels of each chemical at each calculation point. Airborne health risks were assessed in accordance with the valid methodical documents. We applied the following criteria for permissible (acceptable) risks: carcinogenic ones should not exceed 1.0•10-4; non-carcinogenic chronic and / or acute risks should be at a level of a hazard index for chemicals with the same effects equal to 3.0. The brunch and bound method of linear programming was applied to substantiate optimal regulatory impacts aimed at minimizing health risks by reducing emissions into ambient air. We developed a fundamental algorithm for identifying a list of priority pollutants and a list of objects for setting emission quotas, as well as for substantiating optimal regulatory impacts to mitigate airborne public health risks. We suggest ranking chemicals as priority pollutants in case their registered levels are higher than the established hygienic standards and they in total account for not less 95 % of contributions to unacceptable health risks for critical organs and systems at least at one calculation point. Priority objects are those that are responsible for not less than 95 % of unacceptable health risks and violations of the established hygienic standards. The study describes a developed and tested instrument for selecting optimal regulatory impacts as per relevant hygienic indicators, including levels of public health risks. The suggested approaches support the Sanitary Service in its effort to provide proper quality of ambient air. They make it possible to identify priority chemicals and objects for setting emission quotas on the unified methodical basis for any city on the country, including those listed within the ‘Clear Air’ Federal project as priority ones. They also allow estimating whether environmental protection activities are relevant to the essence and levels of public health risks.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43707089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Life expectancy at birth in RF regions with diriment sanitary-epidemiological wellbeing and different lifestyles.management reserves","authors":"S. Kleyn, G.G. Onishchenkо, N. Zaitseva, М.V. Glukhikh","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.02","url":null,"abstract":"The article focuses on estimating reserves of growth in life expectancy at birth (LEB) for the RF population in regions with different sanitary-epidemiological wellbeing and people’s lifestyles. The existing trends in the country development within the regional context corroborate relevance of the present study. The methodical approach includes use of factor and cluster analysis, artificial neuron networks, and scenario forecasting. Activities performed by Rospotrebnadzor within its authority produce positive modifying effects on LEB as an integral health indicator. Differentiated contribution made by these activities to achieving regional target LEB levels by 2024 (COVID-related processes excluded) amounts to 8–62 % as per the group of indicators that describes a sanitary-epidemiological situation on a given territory and 5–45 % as per the group of lifestyle-related indicators. We identified priority factors for each of four types of regions; these factors provide the maximum positive effect on LEB. Working conditions for working population, quality of drinking water, ambient air and nonfoods are priority manageable factors in regions where the sanitary-epidemiological situation is the most unfavorable. Levels of alcohol and food consumption, balanced diets and people’s physical activity are the priority manageable factors in regions with the most unfavorable lifestyle-related indicators. The study revealed that additional LEB growth would be secured if the targets set within national projects were achieved. By 2024, this additional LEB growth would equal 6–420 days and 107–659 days accordingly given the existing trends and regional differentiation as regards improved sanitary-epidemiological situation in regions and people’s lifestyles. Improved working conditions, better quality of drinking water and ambient air are reserves of LEB growth for all types of the RF regions in short and middle-term. A potential reserve of LEB growth and priority determinants were identified for each type of regions. These identified national and regional determinants should be considered when building an optimization model of LEB management allowing for reserves of its growth. The study results develop the authors’ methodical approach to estimating potential LEB growth based on scenario modeling; they are consistent with the results obtained by other relevant studies. We have identified limitations of the present study as well as prospects and trends for future research.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46278534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"К оценке индекса накопления цитогенетических нарушений при воздействии ком-плекса неблагоприятных производственных факторов на организм металлургов","authors":"N. V. Vlasova, L.M. Masyagutova, E.R. Abdrakhmanova, L.A. Rafikova, G.M. Chudnovets","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.11","url":null,"abstract":"Metallurgy is a major economic branch in Russia with more than 4000 enterprises operating in it and seventy percent of them being city-forming ones. This study focuses on cytological assessment of the oral mucosa and secretion from the middle meatus mucosa in workers employed in metallurgy. The aim of this study was to investigate cytological laboratory indicators in workers employed in metallurgy under exposure to adverse occupational factors. A clinical and diagnostic examination of workers employed at a metallurgical plant in Bashkortostan was performed in 2019–2020; it involved cytological studies of the oral mucosa (buccal epithelium) and the middle meatus mucosa (rhinocytogram). In this study, we applied the Index of cytogenetic disorders accumulation (Iac) that allows for cellular kinetics indicators. The overall hygienic assessment of working conditions for workers employed at the analyzed metallurgic plant corresponds to the hazard category 3.2–3.3 in accordance with the criteria outlined in the Guide R (harmful, class 2 or 3). The research results revealed cytogenetic disorders of buccal epithelial cells in the workers who had contacts with adverse occupational factors. Low likelihood of cytogenetic disorders was established for 66.67 % of the workers; moderate, 9.2 %; high, 23.81 %. We assessed rhinocytograms of the workers exposed to adverse occupational factors and revealed some signs of allergic inflammation characterized with high eosinophil count. The research results confirm high significance of diagnostic procedures for developing an algorithm for screening examinations of working population as well as indicators of health disorders under exposure to adverse occupational factors (noise, heating microclimate, industrial dust, gaseous chemicals).","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47822456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mycotoxin contamination of fresh berries and fruits marketed in the central region of Russia","authors":"I. Sedova, Z. Chalyy, N. R. Efimochkina, I. Sokolov, V. Koltsov, T. V. Zhidekhina, S. A. Sheveleva, V. Tutelyan","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.08","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.08","url":null,"abstract":"New emerging strains of toxigenic molds in agricultural areas and insufficient data on levels of their toxic metabolites occurring in domestic horticultural fruits and berries require risk assessment of MT contamination for this plant group of mass consumer products. This study concentrated on samples of fresh fruits and berries sold on the consumer market (185 samples, including 127 intact and 58 with signs of deformation and molding). We applied our own developed technique for quantification of mycotoxins based on HPLC-MS/MS. In this study, we were the first in the RF to examine contamination of garden strawberries, raspberries, currants, huck-leberries, blueberries, gooseberries, dogwood, plums, blackthorn, apples, pears) with 27 MT including poorly studied emergent MT (EMT), produced by Aspergillus, Penicillium, Fusarium and Alternaria. Strawberries, gooseberries, black currants and raspberries turned out to be the most contaminated with MT; red currants, apples and pears were less contaminated. The greatest variety of MT and EMT species was found in strawberries (23 MT), gooseberries (8 MT), black currants (7 MT) and raspberries (6 MT). Among the regulated MT, fumonisins B1 and B2, deoxynivalenol, zearalenone, T-2 toxin, ochratoxin A and aflatoxin B1 were detected in intact strawberries; patulin, in raspberries; deoxynivalenol and zearalenone, in black currant. As for damaged and moldy berries and fruits, the list of detectable toxins was expanded, primarily due to the detection of several types of unregulated EMTs. EMT tenuazonic acid was mainly detected in moldy berries; its levels increased manifold in almost all species, except for strawberries in which penicillic acid prevailed. These new data on MT contamination in fruits and berries indicate the necessity to perform in-depth hygienic assessment of such products sold on the Russian market to identify MT, EMT and their producers. The obtained results will be used to identify hazards at the first stage in risk assessment with its focus on MT and EMT contamination of fresh fruits and berries.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47796726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Immune status and cytokine spectrum as predictors of the risk of severe disease and performance indicators of intensive therapy in patients with coronavirus infection covid-19","authors":"V.F. Sadykov, R. Poltavtseva, A. Chaplygina, N. Bobkova","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.14","url":null,"abstract":"The pandemic caused by a new strain of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has swept the whole world but effective methods for treating this severe pathology have not yet been created. It has now been established that a risk of a severe course of COVID-19 is not so much a patient's age itself, but so-called age-related diseases; the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) is directly or indirectly involved into their development. The SARS-CoV-19 virus interacts with one of the main regulatory elements of this system, ACE2, and disrupts the balance between the two RAS branches. This ultimately manifests itself in an increase in levels of angiotensin II, which, through binding to the angiotensin type 1 receptor (AT1R), causes a number of pathological conditions, including hypertension, atherosclerosis, and cardiovascular diseases, enhances cell proliferation, apoptosis, death of vascular endothelial cells, etc. This process has been described in many reviews by Russian and foreign authors. However, cells of innate and adaptive immunity are another less well-described but no less important target of angiotensin II. The consequences of this interaction are analyzed in detail in this review. With COVID-19, dendritic cells are activated, macrophage proliferation and neutrophil infiltration increase with further involvement of CD4-lymphocytes and other cellular elements of the adaptive immunity in this process. Hyperactivation of the immune system is accompanied with the release of a large amount of pro-inflammatory cytokines, which can lead to the occurrence of a cytokine storm. The picture is aggravated by the inhibitory effect produced by the virus itself on the synthesis of signaling interferons at initial stages in its internalization into the cell. A separate section in the review ad-dresses the problem how to predict a risk of a developing serious condition and search for its predictors by analyzing the state of the RAS and ratios of key cellular elements in the immune system. This is extremely important for making decisions concerning the amount of necessary medical care and strategies for subsequent treatment.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41878586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On sufficient substantiation for maximum permissible level of zilpaterol in meat products","authors":"S. Zelenkin, P. Shur, D. Kiryanov, V. Chigvintsev, O. Ustinova, V. Fokin, D. V. Suvorov, E. Fedorenko","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.10","url":null,"abstract":"The Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee recommends the maximum permissible level of zilpaterol in meat to be fixed at 0.5 µg/kg. This level is substantiated by results of analysis described in several research works. Nevertheless, substantiation provided for this recommended standard requires a detailed discussion. In this study, we aimed to analyze substantiation of FAO/WHO suggestions on the maximum permissible level (MPL) of zilpaterol in meat as per health risks for consumers. Our analysis of research results revealed that the no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL) and the lowest observed adverse effect level (LOAEL) were established allowing for negative effects on various organs and systems in the body. The lowest observed adverse effect level (LOAEL) under acute exposure was taken as a baseline for establishing MPL. This level produces negative effects on the nervous system (developing tremor). However, modifying factors used in MPL development have not been supported with solid argument. We also established that the LOAEL identified for the nervous system under acute exposure was much lower than NOAELs for other organs and systems under chronic exposure. Therefore, the aforementioned research results seem rather controversial. It is necessary to consider another additional factor, which is wide prevalence of cardiovascular diseases among adult population and risk factors that cause their development. Therefore, potential adverse effects on the cardiovascular system are no less important and we should note that they have been reliably detected both in acute and chronic experiments. In this study, we modeled a health risk caused by adverse effects of consuming meat products with residual zilpaterol levels; the risk was modeled in dynamics. The modeling experiment established that an impermissible health risk of adverse health outcomes in the cardiovascular system occurred even under exposure to zilpaterol in levels close to the lowest limit of sensitivity. Consequently, it seems rather premature to accept the maximum permissible level for zilpaterol in meat that is being suggested at present. It is recommended to cut its level down to the lowest limit of detection.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49319024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Molecular and genetic aspects of health risks and their association with adverse environmental conditions and diets (systemic review)","authors":"T. V. Mazhaeva","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.18","url":null,"abstract":"At present, it is vital to examine adverse effects produced on gene expression by negative environmental factors and nutrients. In this study, our aim was to generalize data available in literature on an association between health risks and polymorphisms of genes that participated in xenobiotic detoxification and allergic status, food intolerance included, in adults and children. We also considered influence exerted by various components in diets on gene expression. Available research data indicate that GSTP1 and SOD gene polymorphisms have their effects on a decline in detoxification and antioxidant functions and early development of allergic, occupational and oncological diseases under exposure to harmful chemicals. Micronutrients in diets that can protect from adverse effects produced by chemicals can act not only as substrates but also as detoxification enzyme inducers. Great quantities of biologically active compounds in the Mediterranean diet are assumed to be able to modulate functional activity of certain genes. Such nutrients as polyphenols, flavonoids, catechins, glucosinolates, anthocyanins, stilbenes, carotinoids, polyamines, spermidine and spermine produce anti-genotoxic and anti-carcinogenic effects. Use of combined nutrigenetic and phenotypic data seems a promising trend in effective modeling of a healthy diet. The research data outlined in this review indicate there is solid evidence that health risks can depend on a genotype, phenotype and quality of the environment. These risks also differ depending on a diet. Modeling a healthy diet based on available knowledge on nutritional genetic and nutritional genomics is a promising trend within non-carcinogenic health risk management, including risks of oncological diseases caused by exposure to adverse environmental factors.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42939705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A conceptual scheme of a predictive-analytical model for describing incidence of west nile fever based on weather and climate estimation (exemplified by the Volgograd region)","authors":"K. Zhukov, D. Nikitin, D.V. Kovrizhnykh, D. Viktorov, А. Toporkov","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.12","url":null,"abstract":"The present study focuses on weather and climatic factors influencing the incidence of West Nile fever (WNF) in the Vol-gograd region. We aimed to describe a relationship between these factors and the WNF incidence and to create a conceptual scheme of a predictive-analytical model for making forecasts how an epidemiological situation would develop in future. According to this aim, we selected an approach that involved identifying a statistical correlation between the analyzed factors and the WNF incidence in the Volgograd region and estimating the power of this correlation. The study primarily relied on using correlation analysis that was followed by assessing authenticity of the study results. The obtained data made it possible to establish that air temperature was a leading potentiating factor in the Volgograd region. It produced certain effects that varied in their intensity on a whole set of abiotic and biotic factors (water level and temperature, numbers and activity of carriers, how fast the virus amplifies in carriers, etc.). The study established that use of comprehensive statistical data (average monthly indicators) allowed more precise esti-mation of correlations. We also considered and confirmed a hypothesis about a delayed effect produced by air temperature on population incidence and numbers of West Nile virus carriers in the Volgograd region; it was the most apparent in years with the maximum numbers of infected people (1999, 2010, and 2012). We revealed a statistical correlation between air temperature and average annual water level and the WNF incidence among population and the number of West Nile virus carriers. There was a strong correlation between the number of carriers and the WNF incidence. A conceptual scheme of a predictive model for determining rate of the WHF incidence in Volgograd region was created based on the statistical analysis results.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42611212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}