Political Economy: Budget最新文献

{"title":"Credit Shocks and the European Labour Market","authors":"Katalin Bodnár, Ludmila Fadejeva, M. Hoeberichts, Mario Izquierdo, Christophe Jadeau, Eliana Viviano","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3116052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3116052","url":null,"abstract":"More than five years after the start of the Sovereign debt crisis in Europe, its impact on labour market outcomes is not clear. This paper aims to fill this gap. We use qualitative firm-level data for 24 European countries, collected within the Wage Dynamics Network (WDN) of the ESCB. We first derive a set of indices measuring difficulties in accessing the credit market for the period 2010-13. Second, we provide a description of the relationship between credit difficulties and changes in labour input both along the extensive and the intensive margins as well as on wages. We find strong and significant correlation between credit difficulties and adjustments along both the extensive and the intensive margin. In the presence of credit market difficulties, firms cut wages by reducing the variable part of wages. This evidence suggests that credit shocks can affect not only the real economy, but also nominal variables.","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126853677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Federal Budget for 2018-2020: Austerity Measures","authors":"A. Deryugin, I. Sokolov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3062642","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3062642","url":null,"abstract":"At present, the State Duma is reviewing the draft federal budget in 2018–2020, which is characterized by a conservative forecast of the price of oil, dramatic reduction of the expenditures as a result of new budget rules being applied and a high level of state borrowings. In addition, with the start of a new political cycle in 2018 it may be required to build up expenditures for solving the issues set by the country’s leadership.","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122295657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dívida Pública no Brasil: Medidas e Significados (Brazilian Public Debt: Different Measures and Meanings)","authors":"J. Afonso","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3037635","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3037635","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Portuguese Abstract:</b> Em uma economia emergente, na qual seus governos gastam com o serviço de sua dívida um volume de recursos igual ou superior ao que se despende com muitos dos gastos sociais antes mencionados, nunca é demais conhecer e refletir sobre o citado endividamento governamental. Voltando recentemente à berlinda no debate econômico brasileiro, a dívida pública teria saltado, no diagnóstico da situação atual, para seu ponto mais alto na história do Real. Neste artigo, porém, não se trata desses valores e indicadores. Antes de analisar os números, é preciso compreender o que representam. <b>English Abstract:</b> In an emerging economy, in which their Governments spend with their on debt service a volume equal to or greater than the resources that are dependent on many of the social spending before mentioned, it never hurts to meet and reflect on the cited government indebtedness. Returning recently to the hot seat in the Brazilian economic debate, government debt would have reached the highest point in Real history. In this article, however, instead of presenting and discussing the numbers of this debt in Brazil, it is appropriate to meet and reflect more on how it is measured, which is therefore the object of the present work.","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"27 3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121516967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Avrupa Parasal Birliği'nde Borç Krizi ve Mali Sürdürülebilirlik: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz (The Debt Crisis and Financial Sustainability in the Monetary Policy of Europe: An Econometric Analysis)","authors":"D. Yıldırım, Bilgen Tuna","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3740541","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3740541","url":null,"abstract":"Turkish Abstract: Bu calismanin amaci Avrupa Parasal Birligi’ne uye ulkelerin mali surdurulebilirliklerinin incelenmesi ve mali surdurulebilirlige iliskin politika onerilerinin sunulmasidir. Bu baglamda Avrupa Parasal Birligi’ne uye olan ulkelerin faiz disi fazla ve kamu borcu verileri kullanilmistir. Avrupa Parasal Birligi’ne uye olan ulkelerin mali surdurulebilirligi, borc krizi yasayan ulkeler ve borc krizi yasamayan ulkeler ayrimi gozetilerek 1999-2015 donemine ait yillik verilerle panel veri analizi kullanilarak arastirilmistir. Arastirma sonuclarina gore borc krizi yasamayan ulkeler icin faiz disi fazla artisinin kamu borcunu azaltmadigi gorulmustur. Diger yandan borc krizi yasayan ulkelerin faiz disi fazla vererek kamu borcunu azaltabildikleri ve dolayisiyla mali surdurulebilirligi saglayabilecekleri sonucuna ulasilmistir. \u0000 \u0000English Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the financial sustainability of member countries and to present policy recommendations on the financial sustainability of the European Monetary Union. In this context, the primary surplus and public debt data of countries of European Monetary Union have been used as an indicator of fiscal sustainability. The financial sustainability of the countries that are members of the European Monetary Union has been explored by using annual panel data analysis for the period 1999-2015, taking into account the distinction between the countries experiencing the debt crisis and the countries not living the debt crisis. According to the results of the research, it is seen that the increase in the primary surplus for the countries which don’t have the debt crisis, did not decrease the public debts. On the other hand, countries with debt crises are able to reduce public debt by providing primary surplus and thus achieve financial sustainability.","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133158389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The New System of Formation of the Public Contract in 2016: The Main Risks and Prospects of Development","authors":"A. Kireeva","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2998742","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2998742","url":null,"abstract":"A switchover from financing of budget-funded entities on the basis of a financial estimate to financing of the services they rendered was underway for more than a decade, however, real changes took place only in 2016 when calculation of the volume of budget allocations to those entities on the basis of baseline expenditure normals became mandatory for all the entities of the budget system.","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123164084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Accounting for China's Saving‐Investment Imbalance from 2002–2008","authors":"Jianwei Xu, Guangrong Ma, Panpan Yang","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12226","url":null,"abstract":"This paper decomposes and analyzes China's saving-investment imbalance (equivalent to current account imbalance) from 2002–2008. We first use the Flow of Funds Accounts to calculate the saving and investment rates (propensity) of the household, corporate and government sectors and to evaluate their relative contribution to the aggregate saving-investment surplus. The results indicate that the increase of saving-investment surplus can be attributed to the steady increase of saving by the household and government sectors and the short-term downsizing of investment by the corporate and government sectors. We then use more disaggregate supplementary datasets to explore the factors behind the evolution of the saving and investment rates for the three sectors. The rise of the household saving rate mainly sources from the urban sector. The corporate saving rate experienced a steady increase because of the rise of profitability. Government macroeconomic policies have had a strong influence on the saving and investment patterns of the corporate and government sectors.","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"110 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115748429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Managing the UK National Debt 1694-2017","authors":"Martin Ellison, A. Scott","doi":"10.1257/MAC.20180263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/MAC.20180263","url":null,"abstract":"We construct a new monthly dataset for UK government debt over the period 1694 to 2017 based on price and quantity data for each individual bond issued. This enables us to examine long run fiscal sustainability using the theoretically relevant variable of the market value of debt, and investigate the historical importance of debt management. We find the general implications of the tax smoothing literature are replicated in our data, especially around financing wars, although we find major shifts over time in how fiscal sustainability is achieved. Before the 20th century, governments continued to pay bond holders a high rate of return and achieved sustainability through running fiscal surpluses but since then governments have relied on low growth adjusted real interest rates. The optimal debt management literature tends to favour the use of long bonds but we find the government would have been better off over the 20th century issuing short bonds. The contrast with the literature occurs because of an upward sloping yield curve and long bonds rarely providing fiscal insurance. This is particularly true during periods of financial crises when falling interest rates lead to sharp rises in the price of long bonds, making them an expensive form of finance. We examine the robustness of our conclusions to liquidity effects, rollover risks, buyback operations and leverage. In general, these do suggest a greater role for long bonds but do not overturn an issuance strategy based mainly on short term bonds.","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115808812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Case for a Legislative Budget Office in Vanuatu","authors":"Usman W. Chohan","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2993187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2993187","url":null,"abstract":"This discussion paper considers the budget process in Vanuatu, and finds that a Legislative Budget Office (LBO) can assist with the mandate of fiscal responsibility that the government has undertaken as part of its fiscal management efforts. It then considers specific budget priorities of Vanuatu including reconstruction, service delivery, ministerial budgets, New Policy Proposals (NPPs), and infrastructure expenditure.","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114421873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effect of Ageing on the Ownership of Durable Goods","authors":"Anikó Bíró","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12131","url":null,"abstract":"I analyse how ageing affects the demand for non-housing durable goods. Based on the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, individual characteristics, cohort and time effects can explain most of the age variation in the ownership and purchase of durable goods. A life-cycle model is derived to capture the complex relation between ageing and the demand for non-housing durable goods. Decreasing survival probability, deteriorating health and changing preferences are jointly reflected in the age gradient of demand. Simulations indicate that higher chances of survival increase the ownership ratio of the durable items.","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114458713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Big Fat Greek Swindle","authors":"Pablo Triana","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2948813","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2948813","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most shocking and amazing aspects surrounding the infamous bailout programs that Greece has been immersed in since 2010 surely must be the fact that throughout that period the country has experienced a lackluster and fast declining tax collection rate. That is, even as Greece kept receiving larger and larger amounts of loan disbursements from the Eurozone and the IMF, the government was less and less efficient (or willing) when it came to collecting taxes. To many non-Greeks, this would add insult to the injury of having provided an otherwise bankrupt nation with vast sums of money under incredibly increasingly generous terms only to have regularly faced the opprobrium and invective of those receiving the funds. About €95 billion had accumulated in unpaid taxes by end-2015, an increase of about €60 billion since 2010. Had the Greek government been more efficient or eager to actually gather tax revenue from its residents, the country would have been much more solvent and thusly much less in need of being rescued by official lenders. Many billions of non-Greek taxpayers money (which may never be repaid) would not have been put at risk. If besides the uncollected levies we consider the possibilities for state revenue generation through privatizations and asset sales, it becomes quite obvious that Greece could have stood on its own feet. Just as the bailout loans were about to be disbursed, the Greek government had assets estimated as between €400-500 billion. Added to the neglected tax revenue, clearly more than enough resources for Greece to have met on its own all the key payments (debt redemptions, local banks nationalization, liability management exercises) that have been eventually met with bailout money. And such self-reliance would have brought an added benefit: deprived of the chance to blame the Eurozone-IMF programs for imposing allegedly insufferable “austerity” on the populace, radical anti-system political movements would most likely not have grown influential and captured power. This would have facilitated Greece’s return to capital markets as well as improved economic performance, leading to yet more internally-generated funds (with which to finance enhanced fiscal largesse, say). The inescapable conclusion seems to be that bailout aid was not needed and should not have happened. Euro and global taxpayers would have been swindled by a country that does not want to pay its own way even though it can.","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114401794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}