Political Economy: Budget最新文献_第5页

Proactive Resolution of Sovereign and Subnational Debt 主动解决主权和地方债务

Political Economy: Budget Pub Date : 2019-07-05 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3414394

S. Schwarcz

引用次数: 0

Liquidity, the Government Balance Sheet, and the Public Sector Discount Rate 流动性、政府资产负债表和公共部门贴现率

Political Economy: Budget Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3477069

A. Coleman

{"title":"Liquidity, the Government Balance Sheet, and the Public Sector Discount Rate","authors":"A. Coleman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3477069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3477069","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a review of the modern finance literature examining how liquidity affects the private sector demand for real assets and financial securities. This literature shows that when firms evaluate risky investments they distinguish fundamental earnings risk and liquidity risks, and choose discount rates that link the discount rates they use to the liquidity and structure of their balance sheets. The government can mimic their behaviour by adopting a procedure that (i) ranks projects by discounting their expected costs and benefits by a low ‘fundamental earnings’ discount rate, perhaps 4 – 5 percent; and (ii) imposes a second ‘liquidity’ discount based on the government’s balance sheet structure and debt objectives that simultaneously determines the quantity of investments. By more closely copying private sector practice, this approach will directly link the quantity of investments that a government makes to the discount rates it uses. It will also enable the New Zealand government to reduce the discount rates it uses to evaluate long horizon investments without compromising its aim of ensuring the public and private sectors adopt a common method of evaluating investment projects.","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125682450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 9

Re-Examining the Debt-Growth Nexus: A Grouped Fixed-Effect Approach 重新审视债务与增长的关系:一种分组固定效应方法

Political Economy: Budget Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3415405

Marta Gómez-Puig, S. Sosvilla‐Rivero, I. Martínez‐Zarzoso

引用次数: 1

Regional Budgets for Four Months of 2019: Trends Retained 2019年四个月区域预算:保持趋势

Political Economy: Budget Pub Date : 2019-06-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3411539

A. Deryugin

引用次数: 0

A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Risks Under the Belt and Road Initiative “一带一路”倡议下债务可持续性和财政风险评估框架

Political Economy: Budget Pub Date : 2019-06-17 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8891

Luca Bandiera, Vasileios Tsiropoulos

{"title":"A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Risks Under the Belt and Road Initiative","authors":"Luca Bandiera, Vasileios Tsiropoulos","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8891","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8891","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a framework to assess the impact of infrastructure investment expected under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the debt vulnerabilities of countries that are located on BRI transport and connectivity corridors in the absence of comprehensive and consistent information on investments and financing terms. Key assumptions relate to the amount of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt financing and its terms, the size and sectoral type of identified BRI investment, and the expected impact of growth in the medium and long term of that investment. BRI debt financing is expected significantly increase PPG debt in a number of countries. The paper provides estimates for both the medium and the long term. In the medium term, defined as the period 2019-2023, debt financing of BRI investment is expected to be fully disbursed while the full growth impact of BRI related infrastructure is not entirely realized. In this initial phase, around one-third of assessed BRI-recipient countries are estimated to face elevated debt vulnerabilities post- BRI, several of which have already high debt vulnerabilities. The impact of BRI on public debt would improve over the longer term under the assumption of a sustained negative interest rate-growth differential and in the absence of the materialization of BRI related fiscal risks. Still, debt to GDP ratio is expected to remain higher in one-third of countries (11 out of 30 with available data).","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121387284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 26

Reducing Public Debt: The Experience of Advanced Economies over the Last 70 Years 减少公共债务:发达经济体过去70年的经验

Political Economy: Budget Pub Date : 2019-06-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3405018

Sofia Bernardini, C. Cottarelli, G. Galli, Carlo Valdes

{"title":"Reducing Public Debt: The Experience of Advanced Economies over the Last 70 Years","authors":"Sofia Bernardini, C. Cottarelli, G. Galli, Carlo Valdes","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3405018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3405018","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the episodes of public debt reduction in advanced economies since the Second World War. We find 30 episodes of large reductions in the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Four main approaches succeeded in lowering the debt ratio. First, after the end of WWII, high and unexpected inflation eroded a large share of public debt. Second, during the Bretton Woods era, a mix of financial repression, high economic growth and moderate inflation helped reducing public debt. Third, since the 1980s, several advanced economies followed orthodox fiscal adjustments, namely improving their primary balance by reducing expenditure and/or raising taxes. The fourth approach (debt restructuring) was implemented only in one case: Greece in 2011-12. One key finding of our paper is that debt reduction has never been achieved by relaxing fiscal policy (cutting taxes or increasing expenditure), hoping that this would set in motion a growth process sufficiently strong to lower the debt ratio (the so-called “denominator approach” which has recently become fashionable in some countries, including Italy). The empirical evidence of the last 70 years suggests that running a sufficiently strong primary surplus is the only viable option to reduce public debt ratio nowadays, particularly in countries that are part of the euro area.","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125240354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

How to Restructure Sovereign Debt: Lessons from Four Decades 如何重组主权债务:40年的教训

Political Economy: Budget Pub Date : 2019-05-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3387455

L. Buchheit, G. Chabert, Chanda DeLong, Jeromin Zettelmeyer

引用次数: 13

Has the 2008 Financial Crisis and its Aftermath Changed the Impact of Inflation on Inflation Uncertainty in Member States of the European Monetary Union? 2008年金融危机及其余波是否改变了欧洲货币联盟成员国通胀对通胀不确定性的影响?

Political Economy: Budget Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12170

Nima Nonejad

{"title":"Has the 2008 Financial Crisis and its Aftermath Changed the Impact of Inflation on Inflation Uncertainty in Member States of the European Monetary Union?","authors":"Nima Nonejad","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12170","url":null,"abstract":"We study to what extent the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath have changed the impact of inflation on inflation uncertainty in the 12 original member states of the European Monetary Union (EMU). We adopt a time‐varying coefficient regression model with stochastic volatility effects, and extract two measures of inflation uncertainty from our data, namely, (1) The conditional volatility of inflation, (2) The conditional volatility of steady‐state inflation. (1)–(2) represent short‐run and steady‐state inflation uncertainty, respectively. The time‐varying impact of inflation on inflation uncertainty is analyzed using Markov‐switching regressions, where switching between the low and high inflation uncertainty regime is determined via an unobserved Markov process. Results suggest that the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath have changed the impact of inflation on (1) and (2) across the selected EMU member states. However, a uniform pattern cannot be detected. For some member states, we document a strong link, whereas for others, the impact of inflation on inflation uncertainty is relatively weaker.","PeriodicalId":127865,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Budget","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127189854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Does Public Debt Produce a Crowding out Effect for Public Investment in the EU? 欧盟公共债务是否对公共投资产生挤出效应?

Political Economy: Budget Pub Date : 2019-04-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3376471

Mattia Osvaldo Picarelli, Willem Vanlaer, W. Marneffe

引用次数: 23

A Long Road to Nowhere: The Legal and Remedial Futility of Challenges to a Restricted Single-Limb CAC Retrofit of Local-Law Italian Debt Stock 漫漫长路漫漫:意大利本地法债务股票有限单分支CAC改造挑战的法律和补救无效

Political Economy: Budget Pub Date : 2019-04-14 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3371876

T. Zelinger

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引用次数: 1