Why Containment WorksPub Date : 2020-11-15DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501749483.003.0004
Wallace J. Thies
{"title":"Containing Iraq","authors":"Wallace J. Thies","doi":"10.7591/cornell/9781501749483.003.0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7591/cornell/9781501749483.003.0004","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter looks at Iraq's Saddam Hussein as a very useful case study of whether, when, and why containment works, and when it does not. This is particularly true for the interval between the first and second Persian Gulf wars (1991–2003). During that interval, Saddam refused repeated demands by the United States and other states that he should abandon his weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs and his aspirations for regional hegemony. US officials realized that the effort that the United States had expended during the run-up to the start of the first Gulf War likely would not be enough to impress a brute like Saddam, and they resolved to do better the second time around. The US effort to contain Saddam Hussein faltered in 1990–91, just before Iraq invaded Kuwait. From 1991 until the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, however, the United States was able to use the vast range of capabilities at its disposal to thwart Saddam's schemes.","PeriodicalId":127382,"journal":{"name":"Why Containment Works","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131953246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Why Containment WorksPub Date : 2020-11-15DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501749483.003.0006
Wallace J. Thies
{"title":"Containing Iran","authors":"Wallace J. Thies","doi":"10.7591/cornell/9781501749483.003.0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7591/cornell/9781501749483.003.0006","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter details how, like Colonel Qaddafi's Libya and Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Iran under clerical rule was widely thought to be a difficult target for a strategy based on containment. With every year that passed, Iran seemed to draw closer to becoming a nuclear power and therefore harder to deter and to contain, or so the conventional wisdom proclaimed. The chapter considers the political–military rivalry between the United States and Iran between 1991 (the first Persian Gulf War) and 2016 (when Iran accepted strict limits on its use of the nuclear fuel cycle to produce fissionable materials). If containment pessimists are correct about Iran being undeterrable and uncontainable, then many of the events recounted in the chapter probably should not have occurred. But they did occur, which suggests that a closer look at the historical record will likely reveal some additional interesting twists and turns.","PeriodicalId":127382,"journal":{"name":"Why Containment Works","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130402806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Why Containment WorksPub Date : 2020-11-15DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501749483.003.0007
Wallace J. Thies
{"title":"Containment Reappraised","authors":"Wallace J. Thies","doi":"10.7591/cornell/9781501749483.003.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7591/cornell/9781501749483.003.0007","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter reviews the relative merits of the two theories of victory — containment and the Bush Doctrine — based on evidence drawn from the five case studies and the Cold War too. The case studies covered in the earlier chapters suggest that deterrence has become very much a one-way street. When a superpower like the United States confronts a regional power like Libya, Iraq, or Iran, the superpower can make very credible threats to take military action against the regional power, but not vice versa. Containment, as practiced by the United States during the Cold War, often tried to slow the pace of events in order to reduce the risk of being swept up into an unwanted conflict spiral referred to as the Sarajevo Syndrome. The goal of the policy was to lessen the risk of repeating the errors that preceded the outbreak of the First World War.","PeriodicalId":127382,"journal":{"name":"Why Containment Works","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121047758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"1. Preventive War and Containment","authors":"","doi":"10.1515/9781501749506-002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/9781501749506-002","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":127382,"journal":{"name":"Why Containment Works","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126466975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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