Political Methods: Computational eJournal最新文献

{"title":"On the Resource Allocation for Political Campaigns","authors":"Sebastián Morales, Charles Thraves","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3742905","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3742905","url":null,"abstract":"In an election campaign, candidates must decide how to optimally allocate their efforts/resources optimally among the regions of a country. As a result, the outcome of the election will depend on the players' strategies and the voters' preferences. In this work, we present a zero-sum game where two candidates decide how to invest a fixed resource in a set of regions, while considering their sizes and biases. We explore the Majority System (MS) as well as the Electoral College (EC) voting systems. We prove equilibrium existence and uniqueness under MS in a deterministic model; in addition, their closed form expressions are provided when fixing the subset of regions and relaxing the non-negative investing constraint. For the stochastic case, we use Monte Carlo simulations to compute the players' payoffs, together with its gradient and hessian. For the EC, given the lack of Equilibrium in pure strategies, we propose an iterative algorithm to find Equilibrium in mixed strategies in a subset of the simplex lattice. We illustrate numerical instances under both election systems, and contrast players' equilibrium strategies. Finally, we show that polarization induces candidates to focus on larger regions with negative biases under MS, whereas candidates concentrate on swing states under EC.","PeriodicalId":117077,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Computational eJournal","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121522582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What's the Talk in Brussels? Leveraging Daily News Coverage to Measure Issue Attention in the European Union","authors":"M. Ovádek, Nicolas Lampach, A. Dyevre","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3393734","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3393734","url":null,"abstract":"Research on issue attention in the European Union has focused on the prominence of EU integration in domestic politics and media and, at EU level, on the salience of individual issues and legislative files, often in relation to lobbying. Existing EU-level measures of issue saliency, though, are limited in scope and periodicity and tend to reflect the policy priorities of a single institutional actor rather than that of the broader EU bubble. We present an alternative measure of issue attention leveraging information from the Agence Europe daily bulletin which provides comprehensive but independent news coverage of EU affairs. We use text-mining techniques, including dynamic topic modelling, in combination with manual classification to map issue prevalence between 1979 and 2018. In addition to reporting validation results, we illustrate how our measure relates to other indicators of EU agenda formation and explain how researchers can make use of our new dataset.","PeriodicalId":117077,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Computational eJournal","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134031398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fake News in Social Networks","authors":"Christoph Aymanns, Jakob N. Foerster, Co-Pierre Georg","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3023320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3023320","url":null,"abstract":"We model the spread of news as a social learning game on a network. Agents can either endorse or oppose a claim made in a piece of news, which itself may be either true or false. Agents base their decision on a private signal and their neighbors' past actions. Given these inputs, agents follow strategies derived via multi-agent deep reinforcement learning and receive utility from acting in accordance with the veracity of claims. Our framework yields strategies with agent utility close to a theoretical, Bayes optimal benchmark, while remaining flexible to model re-specification. Optimized strategies allow agents to correctly identify most false claims, when all agents receive unbiased private signals. However, an adversary's attempt to spread fake news by targeting a subset of agents with a biased private signal can be successful. Even more so when the adversary has information about agents' network position or private signal. When agents are aware of the presence of an adversary they re-optimize their strategies in the training stage and the adversary's attack is less effective. Hence, exposing agents to the possibility of fake news can be an effective way to curtail the spread of fake news in social networks. Our results also highlight that information about the users' private beliefs and their social network structure can be extremely valuable to adversaries and should be well protected.","PeriodicalId":117077,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Computational eJournal","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131594695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Text-as-Data Analysis of Preferential Trade Agreements: Mapping the PTA Landscape","authors":"Wolfgang Alschner, Julia Seiermann, D. Skougarevskiy","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2999800","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2999800","url":null,"abstract":"Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) form an intricate web that connects countries across the globe. In this article, we introduce a PTA text corpus and research tools for its fine-grained, automated analysis. Recent computational advances allow for efficient and effective content analysis by treating text as data. We digitize PTA texts and use textual similarity tools to assess PTA design patterns on the global, national, and chapter level. Our descriptive analysis reveals, inter alia, that PTAs are more heterogeneous as a group than, for instance, bilateral investment agreements, but that they converge in regional or inter-regional clusters of similarly worded agreements. Following our descriptive account, we provide three concrete, interdisciplinary examples of how text-as-data analysis can advance the study of trade economics, politics, and law. In trade economics, similarity measures can provide more detailed representations of PTA design differences. These allow researchers to capture more meaningful variation when studying the economic impact of PTAs. In trade politics, scholars can use treaty similarity to trace design diffusion more accurately and test competing explanations for treaty design choices. Finally, in trade law, similarity measures offer new insights into the processes of normative convergence between legal regimes such as trade and investment law.","PeriodicalId":117077,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Computational eJournal","volume":"118 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127959573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Selected Research Methods","authors":"P. Cottrell","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2797783","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2797783","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this section on research methods and designs is to analyze the contemporary literature in the field of quantitative finance. Fifteen selected research articles were compared and contrasted on how to analyze hedging and price methods for financial assets. In addition, an investigation and evaluation of recent trends with research designs for the use in quantitative finance to develop and establish hedging and pricing techniques will be conducted. The first article investigates modeling asymmetric volatility in the context of research methods explored by Hassan. The second research study involves oil future prices and term structures, whereby understanding the permanent and transitory shocks in oil futures can be accomplished via a structural vector auto-regression model by Zha. The third article of inquiry is by Cao and Guo which involved delta hedging performance methodologies. In the fourth research study, Ankirchner and Heyne suggested how to use research methods using cross hedging with stochastic correlations. In the fifth article, Srinvasan investigated stock market volatility and used different volatility models that are GARCH-types. The sixth peer-review study investigated is by Menkhoff, which involves currency momentum and the use of moving averages. The seventh research article was about how to price currency options and the methods used to determine which volatility model performed the best proposed was by Manzur, Hoque, and Poitras. The eighth scholarly study, which was authored by Jiang, involves foreign exchange markets and the use of a vector error correction model.The ninth intellectual inquiry investigated was on tail risk management and some of the methodologies used when modeling with Value-at-Risk and conditional Value-at-Risk by Kayan, Lee, and Pornrojnangkool. The tenth article explores the hydroelectric power industry and how to incorporate a hedging strategy and test for performance by Fleten, Brathen, and Nissen-Meyer. The eleventh research study investigated was by Frikha and Lemaire involved the gas and electricity spot price using a multi-factor model that can present higher volatility markets. The twelfth scholarly article proposed was by Hinnerich which explores equity swaps and demonstrates how to incorporate a jump diffusion model to capture price dynamics. The thirteenth study relates to derivative pricing using a close-form approximation relying on series expansions by Kristensen and Mele. The fourteenth study in this section involves how to build a trading algorithm system by Moldovan, Moca, and Nitchi. The last article reviewed was by Viebig and Poddig, whereby extreme value theory and copula theory was considered as a way to model multivariate daily return distributions of hedge funds.In the conclusion section of this Depth component a discussion on the synthesis of the relevant research related to research design used in quantitative finance was conducted. Comments on how to approach the resear","PeriodicalId":117077,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Computational eJournal","volume":"44 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113992820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Quality of Citations: Towards Quantifying Qualitative Impact in Social Science Research","authors":"P. Bauer, Pablo Barberá, Simon Munzert","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2874549","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2874549","url":null,"abstract":"The quantity of citations (“times cited”) has evolved into an influential indicator of scientific impact both in itself and packaged into other metrics (e.g. h-index, impact factor). In this study we contrast the idea of “quantity” with the idea of the “quality” of citations, i.e. the “quality” of impact. We develop and present methods that can be used to move from a superficial assessment of citation quantity to a more nuanced view of the quality of citations. We illustrate these methods using six highly cited study in the fields of political science, economics and sociology. In the future this more nuanced view and the data we are generating should allow for testing various hypotheses linked to the reception of scientific works and the sociology of science more generally. Our study is complemented by opensource code (based on R) that shall be collected in a R package CitationsR that allows other researchers to pursue their own analyses of the quality of impact of one or several studies.","PeriodicalId":117077,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Computational eJournal","volume":"125 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120899814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agent-Based Simulation of State Collapse and Reconstruction: Analyzing the Past and Future of Somalia","authors":"Takuto Sakamoto, M. Endo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2775541","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2775541","url":null,"abstract":"Civil conflicts are frequently accompanied by significant political dynamics of state integration and disintegration. Despite substantial methodological advancement in the conflict literature, there have been few attempts at incorporating these dynamics into a formal analysis of conflict. In this article, we present an agent-based model of civil conflict that has a distinctive focus on state territorial integration and disintegration. Using various empirical data, we apply this model to the case of Somalia. The model is shown to capture several defining characteristics of the territorial rule in Somalia, most notably the strong tendency of the country to fragment. Extensive simulations also reveal the structural nature of the country’s resource constraints, which persistently hinder the nationwide establishment of stable rule. These results and their implications offer a fresh perspective for the literature on the conflicts in Somalia, which has often focused on a specific social cleavage and its political exploitation.","PeriodicalId":117077,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Computational eJournal","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125185621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterizing Political Cynicism of First-Time Voters for the 2016 Philippine Elections","authors":"J. V. Murcia, F. Guerrero","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2876985","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2876985","url":null,"abstract":"With elections looming in the Philippines, first-time voters are confronted with a serious dilemma: distrust and doubt with the government; hence, political cynicism. Hence, the purpose of the study is to characterize political cynicism as perceived by college students who are first-time voters of 2016 national and local elections. The study further examined the dimensionality of political cynicism as basis in developing a political cynicism index. Quantitative type of research via descriptive-exploratory method of research was utilized. A standardized instrument on political cynicism was distributed to 200 first-time voters in Padada who are currently enrolled in any higher education institution to determine the extent of political cynicism. Principal components factor analysis was used to derive the indices of political cynicism based on the survey results. Results revealed that overall political cynicism was found to be moderate. Moreover, political cynicism is multidimensional, which is a function of eight factors k1 to k8. It is recommended that academicians will further look into the applicability of the indices on a larger sample. The results could also yield basis for specific policy enhancements especially in shifting attitude towards politicians and Philippine politics as a whole.","PeriodicalId":117077,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Computational eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123930756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling Political Belief and Its Propagation, with Malaysia as a Driving Context","authors":"N. Zakaria","doi":"10.4236/OJPS.2014.42008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/OJPS.2014.42008","url":null,"abstract":"We discuss in this paper an agent-based social simulation model that describes the propagation of political belief in Malaysia. Worldview map is used as the representational scheme for political belief. Inter-agent interaction propagates the belief throughout the agent population, subject to similarity of emotion between the interacting agents and their distances apart, and various attributes of the individual agents. Media broadcast may be used by agents in their attempt to extend their reach. Computational experiments made using the model point to its plausibility. Further, it highlights, for the ruling coalition, the importance of both a strong political propaganda machinery and a strong governance in winning the hearts and minds of the electorate.","PeriodicalId":117077,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Computational eJournal","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122459669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics of the Corruption Eradication in Indonesia","authors":"Ardian Maulana, Hokky Situngkir","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2326176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2326176","url":null,"abstract":"The paper discusses an important aspect of the complexity of corruption eradication in Indonesia. Corruption eradication is practically not merely about law enforcement, but also related to social, economic, and political aspects of the nation. By extracting the data from national news media and implement models describing the sentiment relations among political actors, the connection between balance of the sentiment among political elites and the critical levels of the investigation and law enforcement is apparently demonstrated. The focus group discussions among experts, practitioners, and social activists confirm the model.","PeriodicalId":117077,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Computational eJournal","volume":"111 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131554626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}