ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"How Bad is a Bad Loan? Distinguishing Inherent Credit Risk from Inefficient Lending (Does the Capital Market Price this Difference?)","authors":"Joseph P. Hughes, Choon-Geol Moon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3102969","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3102969","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a novel technique to decompose banks’ ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans into three components: first, a minimum ratio that represents best-practice lending given the volume and composition of a bank’s loans, the average contractual interest rate charged on these loans, and market conditions such as the average GDP growth rate and market concentration; second, a ratio, the difference between the bank’s observed ratio of nonperforming loans, adjusted for statistical noise, and the best-practice minimum ratio, that represents the bank’s proficiency at loan making; third, a statistical noise. The best-practice ratio of nonperforming loans, the ratio a bank would experience if it were fully efficient at credit-risk evaluation and loan monitoring, represents the inherent credit risk of the loan portfolio and is estimated by a stochastic frontier technique. We apply the technique to 2013 data on top-tier U.S. bank holding companies which we divide into five size groups. The largest banks with consolidated assets exceeding $250 billion experience the highest ratio of nonperformance among the five groups. Moreover, the inherent credit risk of their lending is the highest among the five groups. On the other hand, their inefficiency at lending is one of the lowest among the five. Thus, the high ratio of nonperformance of the largest financial institutions appears to result from lending to riskier borrowers, not inefficiency at lending. Small community banks under $1 billion also exhibit higher inherent credit risk than all other size groups except the largest banks. In contrast, their loan-making inefficiency is highest among the five size groups. Restricting the sample to publicly traded bank holding companies and gauging financial performance by market value, we find the ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans is on average negatively related to financial performance except at the largest banks. When nonperformance, adjusted for statistical noise, is decomposed into inherent credit risk and lending inefficiency, taking more inherent credit risk enhances market value at many more large banks while lending inefficiency is negatively related to market value at all banks. Market discipline appears to reward riskier lending at large banks and discourage lending inefficiency at all banks.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85317743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uncertainty and Cross-Border Banking Flows","authors":"Sangyup Choi, D. Furceri","doi":"10.5089/9781484336793.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484336793.001","url":null,"abstract":"While global uncertainty—measured by the VIX—has proven to be a robust global “push” factor of international capital flows, there has been no systematic study assessing the role of country-specific uncertainty as a key (pull and push) factor of international capital flows. This paper tries to fill this gap in the literature by examining the effects of country-specific uncertainty shocks on cross-border banking flows using the confidential Bank for International Settlements Locational Banking Statistics data. The dyadic structure of this data allows to disentangle supply and demand factors and to better identify the effect of uncertainty shocks on cross-border banking flows. The results of this analysis suggest that: (i) uncertainty is both a push and pull factor that robustly predicts a decrease in both outflows (retrenchment) and inflows (stops); (ii) global banks rebalance their lending towards safer foreign borrowers from local borrowers when facing higher uncertainty; (iii) this rebalancing occurs only towards advanced economies (flight to quality), but not emerging market economies.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89376249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Feasibility Check: Transition to a New Regime for Bank Sovereign Exposure?","authors":"Yannik Schneider, Sascha Steffen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3093508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3093508","url":null,"abstract":"Excessive sovereign debt exposures of banks contributed to the gravity of the financial and sovereign debt crisis in 2011 and 2012, as well as to the slow and asymmetric recovery of European countries. Various policies that improve banks’ resilience were introduced in recent years, however the regulatory regime for the sovereign debt exposure of banks has not changed. We identify four criteria that a new regime for bank sovereign exposures should fulfill: (1) attenuate the home bias to the domestic sovereign, (2) break the doom loop, (3) avoid a flight-to-quality of assets, and (4) mitigate risk spillovers. We assess the implications for banks’ balance sheets for five policy proposals, based on simulations on a sample of European banks. We show that none of the proposals would fulfill all four criteria in the absence of a safe asset. We conclude that a new regime for bank sovereign exposure should be conditional on restoring the value of sovereign bonds as a safe asset.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81015115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mortgage Modifications after the Great Recession: New Evidence and Implications for Policy","authors":"Diana Farrell, Kanav Bhagat, Peter Ganong, P. Noel","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3083560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3083560","url":null,"abstract":"In the aftermath of the Great Recession, various mortgage modification programs were introduced to help homeowners struggling to make their monthly mortgage payments remain in their homes. We use mortgage data at the individual borrower level, joined to credit card spending and deposit account data, to investigate the relative importance of changes in monthly mortgage payments and long-term mortgage debt on default and consumption. We first quantify the variation in payment reduction offered by these modification programs and then use the variation in payment and principal reduction experienced by program recipients to estimate the impact of payment and principal reduction on default and consumption. \u0000First, we find that payment reduction for borrowers with similar payment burdens varied by two to three times across different modification programs. Borrowers with a high mortgage payment to- income (PTI) ratio received more than twice the payment reduction from HAMP compared to the GSE program. Borrowers with a low mortgage PTI ratio received three times the payment reduction from the GSE program compared to HAMP. Second, a 10 percent mortgage payment reduction reduced default rates by 22 percent. Third, for borrowers who remained underwater, mortgage principal reduction had no effect on default. This suggests that “strategic default” was not the primary driver of default decisions for these underwater borrowers. Fourth, for borrowers who remained underwater, mortgage principal reduction had no effect on consumption. Finally, default was correlated with income loss, regardless of debt-to-income ratio or home equity. Mortgage default closely followed a substantial drop in income. This pattern held regardless of pre-modification mortgage PTI or loan-to-value ratio, suggesting that it was an income shock rather than a high payment burden or negative home equity that triggered default. \u0000These findings suggest that mortgage modification programs that are designed to target substantial payment reduction will be most effective at reducing mortgage default rates. Modification programs designed to reach affordability targets based on debt-to-income measures without regard to payment reduction or target a specific LTV ratio while leaving borrowers underwater may be less effective at reducing defaults. Furthermore, policies that help borrowers establish and maintain a suitable cash buffer that can be used to offset an income shock could be an effective tool to prevent mortgage default. Both high and low mortgage PTI borrowers experienced a similar income drop just prior to default, suggesting that even among those borrowers with “unaffordable” mortgages, it was a drop in income rather than a high level of payment burden that triggered default.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89792316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Oil Price Crisis on Financial Performance of Commercial Banks in Bahrain","authors":"Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar, B. Rohith, Prakash Pinto, Rajesha T.M.","doi":"10.21511/BBS.12(4).2017.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21511/BBS.12(4).2017.01","url":null,"abstract":"Oil export is the major source of revenue for the countries in the Middle East. Their economies are sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices. The present study examines the impact of oil crisis on the performance of selected banks of Kingdom of Bahrain using profitability, efficiency, capital adequacy and liquidity ratios in the pre-crisis and crisis periods. The study reveals that there is no significant difference in the performance of banks in the pre-crisis and crisis period. The results indicate that there is a significant difference in the performance of сonventional banks and Islamic banks in the pre-crisis period. However, there is no significant difference in the performance of сonventional banks and Islamic banks during the crisis period.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81349375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Business Cycles and the Balance Sheets of the Financial and Non-Financial Sectors","authors":"Alonso Villacorta","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3066452","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3066452","url":null,"abstract":"I propose and estimate a dynamic model of financial intermediation to study the different roles of the condition of banks’ and firms’ balance sheets in real activity. The net worth of firms determines their borrowing capacity both from households and banks. Banks provide risky loans to multiple firms and use their diversified portfolio as collateral to borrow from households. This intermediation process allows additional funds to flow from households to firms. Banks require net worth for intermediation as they are exposed to aggregate risk. The net worth of banks and firms are both state variables. In normal recessions, firm and bank net worth play the same role, so their sum determines the allocation of capital. During financial crises, shocks to bank net worth have an additional effect beyond that in standard financial frictions’ models. This mechanism works through intermediation and affects activity, even if shocks redistribute net worth from banks to firms. I estimate my model and find that the new mechanism accounts for 40% of the fall in output and 80% of the fall in bank net worth during the Great Recession. Finally, the model is consistent with the different dynamics of the share of bank loans in total firm debt and credit spreads during the recessions of 1990, 2001, and 2008. JEL Classification: E44, E32, G01","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81653438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Bank of the Future, the Future of Banking - An Empirical Analysis of European Banks","authors":"Federico Giovanni Rega","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3071742","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3071742","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the conspicuous explosion of digital banking, mobile banking, fintech startups and the implications of AI adoption, there is a relative dearth of empirical studies that provide a quantitative analysis of the impact of the Fintech on banks' financial performance. Instead there is a significative literature on internet and multichannel banking and the latest studies seem to find a positive relationship with profitability. \u0000Based on this theoretical background and in-depth research – from different perspectives, considering both financial and legal implications of the phenomenon – this work provides an empirical analysis on a data panel of 38 European Banks for the period 2013-2015 (114 observations). The author presents research approach and hypotheses; then, there is a description of the data, methodology and results. \u0000Findings suggest: 1) the existence of a significant positive relationship between the technological innovation (fintech) and bank profitability; 2) the existence of a negative relationship between the number of physical branches and bank profitability. \u0000The author concludes by discussing the limitations and future research.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79287466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic Strategy for Renewal of US Financial Industry","authors":"S. Rajan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3023261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3023261","url":null,"abstract":"We look at how dynamics of vision, position and acquisitions affect the fortunes of banks in United States - a dynamic strategy approach along with the advent of Human Capital in US Financial Industry.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88619123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Have Banks Been Managing the Composition of High-Quality Liquid Assets?","authors":"J. Ihrig, Cindy M. Vojtech, G. Weinbach","doi":"10.20955/r.101.177-201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.101.177-201","url":null,"abstract":"We study banks' post-crisis liquidity management. We construct time series of U.S. banks' holdings of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) and examine how these assets have been managed in recent years to comply with the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) requirement. We find that, in becoming LCR compliant, banks initially ramped up their stock of reserve balances. However, once the requirement was met, some banks subsequently shifted the compositions of their liquid portfolios significantly. This raises the question: What drives the compositions of banks? HQLA? We show that a risk-return framework can account for a range of potential portfolio compositions depending on banks? tolerance for interest rate risk. And, our data indicate that banks have indeed adopted a range of portfolio compositions, with some components exhibiting a high degree of daily variance. These findings lead us to conclude that about half of large banks are largely focused on risk-return conside rations in managing the compositions of their HQLA pools while the other half appear bound by other factors. We highlight the importance of our findings for both the transmission and implementation of monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86735869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Aftermath of Corporate Default with Chinese Characteristics","authors":"Jing Ai, W. Bailey, Haoyu Gao, Xiaoguang Yang, Lin Zhao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2955110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2955110","url":null,"abstract":"We study lending, default, and default resolution with seven million loans by seventeen commercial banks to corporations across China from 2007 to 2013. Politically connected borrowers perform poorly on several dimensions of the lending process, even with improvements in bankruptcy law, government action at times of crisis, or listing on China's stock market. In contrast, evidence of relationship banking and improvements in some lending outcomes for other borrowers and in provinces with higher institutional and economic development suggest gradual though uneven emergence of a modern capital market.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83671770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}