M. Stoimenova-Minova, S. Gocheva-Ilieva, A. Ivanov
{"title":"PM10 Prediction Using CART Method Depending on the Number of Observations","authors":"M. Stoimenova-Minova, S. Gocheva-Ilieva, A. Ivanov","doi":"10.1145/3409915.3409919","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3409915.3409919","url":null,"abstract":"The main air pollutant all around the world is particulate matter PM10. This is particulate matter smaller than 10 microns. In the human body, harmful particles lead to serious health problems, causing chronic lung disease, asthma, bronchitis, and heart failure. Statistics for Bulgaria show that an average of 66-68% of mortality is due to exactly such cardiovascular disease. This paper applies the powerful Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method to analyze data about PM10 air pollution for the city of Smolyan. The modeling procedure found that depending on the number of observations, the obtained models approximate the actual data to a different degree. The study uses mean daily measurements for the period from 1 January 2010 to 27 April 2018. The obtained results show that the best model approximates the actual measured values of PM10 up to 87%. The selected best CART model is applied to forecast future pollution 3 days ahead.","PeriodicalId":114746,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2020 3rd International Conference on Mathematics and Statistics","volume":"6 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127268707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimating of Factors Influencing the Brewing Market by Using Decision Trees: A Case of Bulgaria","authors":"H. Kulina, S. Gocheva-Ilieva, A. Ivanov","doi":"10.1145/3409915.3409918","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3409915.3409918","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the influence of key market factors - price, distribution, digital and non-digital advertising, atmospheric temperature and others on the sales of the brewing sector in Bulgaria. The monthly observations over nearly five years are analyzed for a major brand of beer. The data are modeled using the powerful data mining technique of Classification and Regression Trees (CART). The built models describe beer sales in relation to the studied factors with high goodness-of-fit statistics: coefficient of determination up to R2 = 94% and RMSE = 3.11. Cross-validation and holdout data sampling are used to assess the quality of obtained models. The models are applied for forecasting the volume of beer sales for one month ahead.","PeriodicalId":114746,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2020 3rd International Conference on Mathematics and Statistics","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126820468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Proceedings of the 2020 3rd International Conference on Mathematics and Statistics","authors":"","doi":"10.1145/3409915","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3409915","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":114746,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2020 3rd International Conference on Mathematics and Statistics","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125662123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}