Alistair Duffey, Robbie Mallett, Peter J. Irvine, Michel Tsamados, Julienne Stroeve
{"title":"ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement","authors":"Alistair Duffey, Robbie Mallett, Peter J. Irvine, Michel Tsamados, Julienne Stroeve","doi":"10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Arctic is warming at almost 4 times the global average rate. Here we reframe this amplified Arctic warming in terms of global climate ambition to show that without Arctic amplification, the world would breach the Paris Agreement's 1.5 and 2 ∘C limits 5 and 8 years later, respectively. We also find the Arctic to be a disproportionate contributor to uncertainty in the timing of breaches. The outsized influence of Arctic warming on global climate targets highlights the need for better modelling and monitoring of Arctic change.","PeriodicalId":11466,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics Discussions","volume":"82 14","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134901134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition","authors":"Laurie Laybourn, Joseph Evans, James Dyke","doi":"10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The consequences of climate change, nature loss, and other changes to the Earth system will impact societies' ability to tackle the causes of these problems. There are extensive agendas of study and action on the risks resulting from changes in the Earth system. These consider the failure to realise rapid sustainability transitions to date (“physical risk”) and the risks resulting from these transitions going forward (“transition risk”). Yet there is no established agenda on the risks to sustainability transitions from both physical and transition risks and their knock-on consequences. In response, we develop a conceptual socio-ecological systems model that explores how the escalating consequences of changes in the Earth system impacts the ability of societies to undertake work on environmental action that, in turn, re-stabilises natural systems. On one hand, these consequences can spur processes of political, economic, and social change that could accelerate the growth in work done, as societies respond constructively to tackle the causes of a less stable world. Conversely, escalating demands to manage increasingly chaotic conditions could divert work and political support from environmental action, deepening changes in the Earth system. If the latter dynamic dominates over the former, the chance is increased of passing a planetary threshold over which human agency to re-stabilise the natural world is severely impaired. We term this “derailment risk”: the risk that the journey to bring the world back into a safe operating space is derailed by interacting biophysical and socio-economic factors. We use a case study of a climate tipping element – the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – to illustrate derailment risk. A range of policy responses can identify and mitigate derailment risk, including transformational adaptation. Acting on derailment risk is a critical requirement for accelerating the re-stabilisation of Earth system elements and avoiding catastrophic outcomes.","PeriodicalId":11466,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics Discussions","volume":"29 24","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134991921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Berenice Rojo-Garibaldi, Manuel Contreras-López, Simone Giannerini, David Alberto Salas-de-León, Verónica Vázquez-Guerra, Julyan H. E. Cartwright
{"title":"Nonlinear time series analysis of coastal temperatures and El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in the eastern South Pacific","authors":"Berenice Rojo-Garibaldi, Manuel Contreras-López, Simone Giannerini, David Alberto Salas-de-León, Verónica Vázquez-Guerra, Julyan H. E. Cartwright","doi":"10.5194/esd-14-1125-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1125-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. We carry out a nonlinear time series analysis motivated by dynamical systems theory to investigate the links between temperatures on the eastern South Pacific coast, influenced by the Humboldt Current System, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. To this aim, we use a set of 16 oceanic and atmospheric temperature time series from Chilean coastal stations distributed between 18 and 45∘ S. The spectral analysis indicates periodicities that can be related to both internal and external forcing, involving not only ENSO, but also the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Southern Annual Mode, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the lunar nodal cycle. The asymptotic neural network test for chaos based on the largest global Lyapunov exponent indicates that the temperature dynamics along the Chilean coast is not chaotic. We use local Lyapunov exponents to characterize the short-term stability of the series. Using a cross-entropy test, we find that two stations in northern Chile, one oceanic (Iquique) and one atmospheric (Arica), present a significant positive cross-dependence between local Lyapunov exponents and ENSO. Iquique is the station that presents the greater number of regional characteristics and correlates with ENSO differently from the rest. The unique large-scale study area, combined with time series from hitherto unused sources (Chilean naval records), reveals the nonlinear dynamics of climate variability in Chile.","PeriodicalId":11466,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics Discussions","volume":" 1269","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135186561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"MIROC6 Large Ensemble (MIROC6-LE): experimental design and initial analyses","authors":"Hideo Shiogama, Hiroaki Tatebe, Michiya Hayashi, Manabu Abe, Miki Arai, Hiroshi Koyama, Yukiko Imada, Yu Kosaka, Tomoo Ogura, Masahiro Watanabe","doi":"10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Single model initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) are a useful approach to understand the roles of forced responses and internal variability in historical and future climate change. Here, we produce one of the largest ensembles thus far using the MIROC6 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model (MIROC6-LE). The total experimental period of MIROC6-LE is longer than 76 000 years. MIROC6-LE consists of a long preindustrial control run, 50-member historical simulations, 8 single forcing historical experiments with 10 or 50 members, 5 future scenario experiments with 50 members and 3 single forcing future experiments with 50 members. Here, we describe the experimental design. The output data of most of the experiments are freely available to the public. This dataset would be useful to a wide range of research communities. We also demonstrate some examples of initial analyses. Specifically, we confirm that the linear additivity of the forcing-response relationship holds for the 1850–2020 trends of the annual mean values and extreme indices of surface air temperature and precipitation by analyzing historical fully forced runs and the sum of single forced historical runs. To isolate historical anthropogenic signals of annual mean and extreme temperature for 2000–2020 relative to 1850–1900, ensemble sizes of 4 and 15, respectively, are sufficient in most of the world. Historical anthropogenic signals of annual mean and extreme precipitation are significant with the 50-member ensembles in 76 % and 69 % of the world, respectively. Fourteen members are sufficient to examine differences in changes in annual mean values and extreme indices of temperature and precipitation between the shared socioeconomic pathways (ssp), ssp585 and ssp126, in most of the world. Ensembles larger than 50 members are desirable for investigations of differences in annual mean and extreme precipitation changes between ssp126 and ssp119. Historical and future changes in internal variability, represented by departures from the ensemble mean, are analyzed with a focus on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global annual mean temperature and precipitation. An ensemble size of 31 is large enough to detect ENSO intensification from preindustrial conditions to 1951–2000, from 1951–2000 to 2051–2100 in all future experiments, and from low- to high-emission future scenario experiments. The single forcing historical experiments with 27 members can isolate ENSO intensification due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings. Future changes in the global mean temperature variability are discernible with 23 members under all future experiments, while 50 members are not sufficient for detecting changes in the global mean precipitation variability in ssp119 and ssp126. We also confirm that these temperature and precipitation variabilities are not precisely analyzed when detrended anomalies from the long-term averages are used due to interannual climate responses t","PeriodicalId":11466,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics Discussions","volume":"294 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135474804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A quantitative assessment of air–sea heat flux trends from ERA5 since 1950 in the North Atlantic basin","authors":"Johannes Mayer, Leopold Haimberger, Michael Mayer","doi":"10.5194/esd-14-1085-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1085-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This work aims to investigate the temporal stability and reliability of trends in air–sea heat fluxes from ERA5 forecasts over the North Atlantic basin for the period 1950–2019. Driving forces of the trends are investigated using analyzed state quantities from ERA5. Estimating trends from reanalysis data can be challenging as changes in the observing system may introduce temporal inconsistencies. To this end, the impact of analysis increments is discussed. For individual sub-regions in the North Atlantic basin, parametrization formulas for latent and sensible heat fluxes are linearized to quantitatively attribute trends to long-term changes in wind speed, moisture, and temperature. Our results suggest good temporal stability and reliability of air–sea heat fluxes from ERA5 forecasts on sub-basin scales and below. Regional averages show that trends are largely driven by changes in the skin temperature and atmospheric advection (e.g., of warmer or drier air masses). The influence of modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, on the patterns found is discussed as well. Results indicate a significant impact on trends in the Irminger and Labrador seas associated with more positive NAO phases during the past 4 decades. Finally, we use basin-wide trends of air–sea heat fluxes in combination with an observational ocean heat content estimate to provide an energy-budget-based trend estimate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). A decrease in area-averaged air–sea heat fluxes in the North Atlantic basin suggests a decline in the AMOC over the study period. However, basin-wide flux trends are deemed partially artificial, as indicated by temporally varying moisture increments. Thus, the exact magnitude of change is uncertain, but its sign appears robust and adds complementary evidence that the AMOC has weakened over the past 70 years.","PeriodicalId":11466,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics Discussions","volume":"69 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135217704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ed Hawkins, Gilbert P. Compo, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh
{"title":"ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world","authors":"Ed Hawkins, Gilbert P. Compo, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh","doi":"10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>\u0000 </jats:p>","PeriodicalId":11466,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics Discussions","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135888940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mohammad Hadi Bordbar, Volker Mohrholz, Martin Schmidt
{"title":"Low confidence in multi-decadal trends of wind-driven upwelling across the Benguela Upwelling System","authors":"Mohammad Hadi Bordbar, Volker Mohrholz, Martin Schmidt","doi":"10.5194/esd-14-1065-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1065-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Like other eastern boundary upwelling systems, in the Benguela Upwelling System, the upwelling along the coastline is primarily alongshore-wind-driven. In contrast, it is mainly driven by the wind stress curl farther offshore. The surface wind regime across the Benguela Upwelling System is strongly related to the South Atlantic Anticyclone that is believed to migrate poleward in response to anthropogenic global warming. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis for 1979–2021, we investigate multi-decadal changes in the South Atlantic Anticyclone and their impacts on coastal upwelling driven by alongshore winds, wind-stress-curl-driven upwelling within the coastal zone and total upwelling as the sum of both across the Benguela Upwelling System. Even though the detailed structure of surface wind over the coastal zone matters for both alongshore-wind-driven coastal upwelling and wind-stress-curl-driven upwelling, we show that it is not of major importance for the total amount of upwelled water. We found a robust connection between the anticyclone intensity and the zonally integrated wind-stress-curl-driven and total upwelling. However, such connection for the alongshore-wind-driven coastal upwelling is weak. The upwelling in the equatorward portion of the Benguela Upwelling System is significantly affected by the anticyclone intensity. In contrast, the poleward portion is also influenced by the meridional position of the anticyclone. In general, the impacts of the anticyclone on the local upwelling are more robust during the austral winter. The multi-decadal trend in the sea level pressure across the South Atlantic renders a considerable heterogeneity in space. However, this trend features a small signal-to-noise ratio and can be obscured by interannual to decadal climate variability. This view is further supported by the coastal and wind-stress-curl-driven upwelling in several upwelling cells showing hardly any significant multi-decadal trends.","PeriodicalId":11466,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics Discussions","volume":"14 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136114737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Roland Vernooij, Tom Eames, Jeremy Russell-Smith, Cameron Yates, Robin Beatty, Jay Evans, Andrew Edwards, Natasha Ribeiro, Martin Wooster, Tercia Strydom, Marcos Vinicius Giongo, Marco Assis Borges, Máximo Menezes Costa, Ana Carolina Sena Barradas, Dave van Wees, Guido R. Van der Werf
{"title":"Dynamic savanna burning emission factors based on satellite data using a machine learning approach","authors":"Roland Vernooij, Tom Eames, Jeremy Russell-Smith, Cameron Yates, Robin Beatty, Jay Evans, Andrew Edwards, Natasha Ribeiro, Martin Wooster, Tercia Strydom, Marcos Vinicius Giongo, Marco Assis Borges, Máximo Menezes Costa, Ana Carolina Sena Barradas, Dave van Wees, Guido R. Van der Werf","doi":"10.5194/esd-14-1039-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1039-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Landscape fires, predominantly found in the frequently burning global savannas, are a substantial source of greenhouse gases and aerosols. The impact of these fires on atmospheric composition is partially determined by the chemical breakup of the constituents of the fuel into individual emitted chemical species, which is described by emission factors (EFs). These EFs are known to be dependent on, amongst other things, the type of fuel consumed, the moisture content of the fuel, and the meteorological conditions during the fire, indicating that savanna EFs are temporally and spatially dynamic. Global emission inventories, however, rely on static biome-averaged EFs, which makes them ill-suited for the estimation of regional biomass burning (BB) emissions and for capturing the effects of shifts in fire regimes. In this study we explore the main drivers of EF variability within the savanna biome and assess which geospatial proxies can be used to estimate dynamic EFs for global emission inventories. We made over 4500 bag measurements of CO2, CO, CH4, and N2O EFs using a UAS and also measured fuel parameters and fire-severity proxies during 129 individual fires. The measurements cover a variety of savanna ecosystems under different seasonal conditions sampled over the course of six fire seasons between 2017 and 2022. We complemented our own data with EFs from 85 fires with locations and dates provided in the literature. Based on the locations, dates, and times of the fires we retrieved a variety of fuel, weather, and fire-severity proxies (i.e. possible predictors) using globally available satellite and reanalysis data. We then trained random forest (RF) regressors to estimate EFs for CO2, CO, CH4, and N2O at a spatial resolution of 0.25∘ and a monthly time step. Using these modelled EFs, we calculated their spatiotemporal impact on BB emission estimates over the 2002–2016 period using the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 with small fires (GFED4s). We found that the most important field indicators for the EFs of CO2, CO, and CH4 were tree cover density, fuel moisture content, and the grass-to-litter ratio. The grass-to-litter ratio and the nitrogen-to-carbon ratio were important indicators for N2O EFs. RF models using satellite observations performed well for the prediction of EF variability in the measured fires with out-of-sample correlation coefficients between 0.80 and 0.99, reducing the error between measured and modelled EFs by 60 %–85 % compared to using the static biome average. Using dynamic EFs, total global savanna emission estimates for 2002–2016 were 1.8 % higher for CO, while CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions were, respectively, 0.2 %, 5 %, and 18 % lower compared to GFED4s. On a regional scale we found a spatial redistribution compared to GFED4s with higher CO, CH4, and N2O EFs in mesic regions and lower ones in xeric regions. Over the course of the fire season, drying resulted in gradually lower EFs of these species. Relativ","PeriodicalId":11466,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics Discussions","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136357750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Changes in apparent temperature and PM<sub>2.5</sub> around the Beijing–Tianjin megalopolis under greenhouse gas and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios","authors":"Jun Wang, John C. Moore, Liyun Zhao","doi":"10.5194/esd-14-989-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-989-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Apparent temperature (AP) and ground-level aerosol pollution (PM2.5) are important factors in human health, particularly in rapidly growing urban centers in the developing world. We quantify how changes in apparent temperature – that is, a combination of 2 m air temperature, relative humidity, surface wind speed, and PM2.5 concentrations – that depend on the same meteorological factors along with future industrial emission policy may impact people in the greater Beijing region. Four Earth system model (ESM) simulations of the modest greenhouse emissions RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway), the “business-as-usual” RCP8.5, and the stratospheric aerosol intervention G4 geoengineering scenarios are downscaled using both a 10 km resolution dynamic model (Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF) and a statistical approach (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project – ISIMIP). We use multiple linear regression models to simulate changes in PM2.5 and the contributions meteorological factors make in controlling seasonal AP and PM2.5. WRF produces warmer winters and cooler summers than ISIMIP both now and in the future. These differences mean that estimates of numbers of days with extreme apparent temperatures vary systematically with downscaling method, as well as between climate models and scenarios. Air temperature changes dominate differences in apparent temperatures between future scenarios even more than they do at present because the reductions in humidity expected under solar geoengineering are overwhelmed by rising vapor pressure due to rising temperatures and the lower wind speeds expected in the region in all future scenarios. Compared with the 2010s, the PM2.5 concentration is projected to decrease by 5.4 µg m−3 in the Beijing–Tianjin province under the G4 scenario during the 2060s from the WRF downscaling but decrease by 7.6 µg m−3 using ISIMIP. The relative risk of five diseases decreases by 1.1 %–6.7 % in G4, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 using ISIMIP but has a smaller decrease (0.7 %–5.2 %) using WRF. Temperature and humidity differences between scenarios change the relative risk of disease from PM2.5 such that G4 results in 1 %–3 % higher health risks than RCP4.5. Urban centers see larger rises in extreme apparent temperatures than rural surroundings due to differences in land surface type, and since these are also the most densely populated, health impacts will be dominated by the larger rises in apparent temperatures in these urban areas.","PeriodicalId":11466,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics Discussions","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134961175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales: a methodological review","authors":"Alexandre Tuel, Olivia Martius","doi":"10.5194/esd-14-955-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Persistence is an important concept in meteorology. It refers to surface weather or the atmospheric circulation either remaining in approximately the same state (quasi-stationarity) or repeatedly occupying the same state (recurrence) over some prolonged period of time. Persistence can be found at many different timescales; however, sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales are especially relevant in terms of impacts and atmospheric predictability. For these reasons, S2S persistence has been attracting increasing attention from the scientific community. The dynamics responsible for persistence and their potential evolution under climate change are a notable focus of active research. However, one important challenge facing the community is how to define persistence from both a qualitative and quantitative perspective. Despite a general agreement on the concept, many different definitions and perspectives have been proposed over the years, among which it is not always easy to find one's way. The purpose of this review is to present and discuss existing concepts of weather persistence, associated methodologies and physical interpretations. In particular, we call attention to the fact that persistence can be defined as a global or as a local property of a system, with important implications in terms of methods and impacts. We also highlight the importance of timescale and similarity metric selection and illustrate some of the concepts using the example of summertime atmospheric circulation over western Europe.","PeriodicalId":11466,"journal":{"name":"Earth System Dynamics Discussions","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135781609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}