Earthquake Spectra最新文献

{"title":"Investigating the sensitivity of losses to time-dependent components of seismic risk modeling","authors":"Salvatore Iacoletti, Gemma Cremen, Carmine Galasso","doi":"10.1177/87552930231226230","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231226230","url":null,"abstract":"Conventional earthquake risk modeling involves several notable simplifications, which neglect: (1) the effects on seismicity of interactions between adjacent faults and the long-term elastic rebound behavior of faults; (2) short-term hazard increases associated with aftershocks; and (3) the accumulation of damage in assets due to the occurrence of multiple earthquakes in a short time window, without repairs. Several recent earthquake events (e.g. 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes, New Zealand; 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes, USA; and 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquakes) have emphasized the need for risk models to account for the aforementioned short- and long-term time-dependent characteristics of earthquake risk. This study specifically investigates the sensitivity of monetary loss (i.e. a possible earthquake-risk-model output) to these time dependencies, for a case-study portfolio in Central Italy. The investigation is intended to provide important insights for the catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance industry. In addition to salient catastrophe risk insurance features, the end-to-end approach for time-dependent earthquake risk modeling used in this study incorporates recent updates in long-term time-dependent fault modeling, aftershock forecasting, and vulnerability modeling that accounts for damage accumulation. The sensitivity analysis approach presented may provide valuable guidance on the importance and appropriate treatment of time dependencies in regional (i.e. portfolio) earthquake risk models. We find that the long-term fault and aftershock occurrence models are the most crucial features of a time-dependent seismic risk model to constrain, at least for the monetary loss metrics examined in this study. Accounting for damage accumulation is also found to be important, if there is a high insurance deductible associated with portfolio assets.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139949878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional seismic velocity model for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains based on measured shear wave velocity, sediment thickness, and surface geology","authors":"Cassie Gann-Phillips, Ashly Cabas, Chunyang Ji, Chris Cramer, James Kaklamanos, Oliver Boyd","doi":"10.1177/87552930231222960","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231222960","url":null,"abstract":"The Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains (CPs) are characterized by widespread accumulations of low-velocity sediments and sedimentary rock that overlay high-velocity bedrock. Geology and sediment thickness greatly influence seismic wave propagation, but current regional ground motion amplification and seismic hazard models include limited characterization of these site conditions. In this study, a new regional seismic velocity model for the CPs is created by integrating shear wave velocity (V<jats:sub>S</jats:sub>) measurements, surface geology, and a sediment thickness model recently developed for the CPs. A reference rock V<jats:sub>S</jats:sub> of 3000 m/s has been assumed at the bottom of the sedimentary columns, which corresponds to the base of Cretaceous and Mesozoic sediments underlying the Atlantic CP and the Gulf CP, respectively. Measured V<jats:sub>S</jats:sub> profiles located throughout the CPs are sorted into five geologic groups of varying age, and median V<jats:sub>S</jats:sub> profiles are developed for each group by combining measured V<jats:sub>S</jats:sub> values within layer thicknesses defined by an assumed layering ratio. Statistical analyses are also conducted to test the appropriateness of the selected groups. A power law model with geology-informed coefficients is used to extend the median velocity models beyond the depths where measured data were available. The median V<jats:sub>S</jats:sub> profiles provide reasonable agreement with other generic models applicable for the region, but they also incorporate new information that enables more advanced characterizations of site response at regional scales and their effective incorporation into seismic hazard models and building codes. The proposed median velocity profiles can be assigned within a grid-based model of the CPs according to the spatial distribution of geologic units at the surface.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139949968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combining observed linear basin amplification factors with 1D nonlinear site-response analyses to predict site response for strong ground motions: Application to Wellington, New Zealand","authors":"Christopher A de la Torre, Brendon A. Bradley, Felipe Kuncar, Robin L. Lee, Liam M. Wotherspoon, Anna Kaiser","doi":"10.1177/87552930231209726","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231209726","url":null,"abstract":"This study develops a method for estimating site amplification that combines instrumentally observed site-specific amplification factors with adjustment factors from nonlinear site-response analyses. This approach provides estimates of site response for large-strain motions based on observations and sophisticated nonlinear modeling. A database of weak-to-moderate intensity ground motions recorded in three basins of Wellington, New Zealand is used to study the observed site amplification. A subset of nine strong-motion stations was selected to perform nonlinear site-response analyses with scaled strong ground motions to assess the influence of nonlinearity on site amplification factors and demonstrate the approach. Different shear-wave velocity ( VS) profiles, constitutive models, and modeling approaches (e.g. one-dimensional (1D) site-response analyses vs empirical [Formula: see text]-based approaches) are used to quantify the sensitivity and modeling uncertainty in the nonlinear site-response analyses. It was found that for soft sites subjected to strong ground motions, there may be a decrease in spectral acceleration amplification factors for periods up to approximately 2 s, relative to the expected linear site response. For longer periods, there is little to no amplification from the effects of soil nonlinearity. However, at stiffer sites, which generally experience less basin amplification in observations, there may be moderate amplification at longer periods when nonlinearity is considered due to softening of the soil profile. Empirical ground-motion models were found to under-represent the observed amplification between basin sites and the nearby reference site, especially at intermediate to long periods, corresponding to resonant frequencies of these basin sites. In addition, the empirical nonlinear site amplification models ([Formula: see text]-based) were found to deviate from nonlinear analyses at large strains, where such models are poorly constrained due to such a limited number of observations.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138592808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fault-displacement models for aggregate and principal displacements","authors":"Grigorios Lavrentiadis, Norman Abrahamson","doi":"10.1177/87552930231201531","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231201531","url":null,"abstract":"New fault-displacement models (FDMs) are developed for the aggregate and principal net surface displacement using the database developed by the Fault Displacement Hazard Initiative Project. An FDM for the aggregate displacement is developed, which is then partitioned into principal and distributed displacements. The model for the aggregate displacement is first formulated in the wavenumber domain to incorporate seismology-based constraints for the extrapolation of the magnitude scaling of median displacements to large-magnitude events. The results from the wavenumber-domain model are then adjusted to fit the empirical moderate-magnitude scaling (M < 7) and the shape of the displacement profile at the ends of the rupture. Segments are used in the model development to better capture the complexity of the variability of the surface-displacement profile along strike, including regions with zero displacements. For applications in which segments cannot be identified, simplified FDMs without segments are developed that treat the number, lengths, and locations of the segments as aleatory variability. The principal-displacement FDM is then developed as an adjustment to the aggregate-displacement FDM. The segmentation and the magnitude dependence of the taper length of individual segments lead to non-self-similar scaling of the median profile along the entire rupture that can have a significant impact on probabilistic fault-displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) for sites near the ends of faults. A key feature of the new FDMs is the use of a power-normal [Formula: see text] distribution for the aleatory variability, which leads to narrower distributions of the displacement for large-magnitude earthquakes compared to the commonly used lognormal distribution. For large-magnitude earthquakes, the expected maximum displacements computed using the power-normal distribution of the FDM are consistent with the observed maximum displacements along strike, supporting the narrower shape of the upper tail of the power-normal distribution for large-magnitude events.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"21 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138601081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reconnaissance of the 2022 Guanshan and Chihshang earthquakes in eastern Taiwan","authors":"Che‐Min Lin, Yu-Wen Chang, Chung‐Che Chou, S. Jhuang, Zheng-kuan Lee, Chiun-Lin Wu, S. Chao, Jyun‐Yan Huang, Hsuan-Chih Yang, Che-Yu Chang, Gilberto Mosqueda, Chung-Chan Hung","doi":"10.1177/87552930231209102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231209102","url":null,"abstract":"Two significant earthquakes struck eastern Taiwan on consecutive days in mid-September of 2022. The first, the Guanshan earthquake, occurred on the night of September 17 (local time) with a local magnitude (ML) of 6.4, and the second, the Chihshang earthquake, occurred on the afternoon of September 18 with a mainshock of ML of 6.8. The strong motion of these two events resulted in a series of ground surface ruptures, 2 collapsed buildings, two collapsed bridges, and more than 100 partially damaged structures along the Chihshang and Yuli faults around the Longitudinal Valley in eastern Taiwan. The observed response spectra at the damage sites of the Chihshang earthquake were significantly larger than the design response spectra of the 1997 Taiwan building code. Near-fault velocity pulses with a maximum value of 132 cm/s were observed along the faults, destructively impacting the damaged structures. The details and causes of the structural damage are presented in this article according to the findings of the on-site reconnaissance and ground motion analysis. Finally, the behavior of selected structures that have a structural health monitoring system at the time of these two destructive earthquakes is also evaluated.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139209212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sediment thickness map of United States Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain Strata, and their influence on earthquake ground motions","authors":"O. Boyd, David Churchwell, M. Moschetti, Eric M. Thompson, Martin C Chapman, Okan Ilhan, Thomas L Pratt, Sean K. Ahdi, S. Rezaeian","doi":"10.1177/87552930231204880","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231204880","url":null,"abstract":"With the recent successful accounting of basin depth ground-motion adjustments in seismic hazard analyses for select areas of the western United States, we move toward implementing similar adjustments in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains by constructing a sediment thickness model and evaluating multiple relevant site amplification models for central and eastern United States seismic hazard analyses. We digitize and combine existing sediment thickness data sets into a composite surface that delineates the base of Cretaceous sediments under the Atlantic Coastal Plain and the base of Mesozoic sediments under the Gulf Coastal Plain. Amplification models dependent on sediment thickness, site natural period, and source-to-site path length are compared with data sets of observed ground motions to evaluate the ability of the new models to improve ground motion estimates. We find that the amplification models can account for observed trends in sediment-thickness and period-dependent residuals, but some tuning is required. For example, the model of Chapman and Guo requires a reference VS30, the time-averaged shear-wave velocity within 30 m of the Earth’s surface, for non-Coastal Plain sites, which we estimate to be between about 1 and 2 km/s. Along with our sediment thickness model, we estimate a velocity profile for application to the Harmon et al. site-natural-period-based model in order to best match the Chapman and Guo period dependence for a broad range of sediment thicknesses. The Next Generation of Attenuation models for the eastern United States Gulf Coast path-based adjustment models can also account for seismic attenuation in the Coastal Plain sediments and reduce the standard deviation of total residuals. If enacted in the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model, these amplification models will reduce predicted short-period (<1 s) and increase predicted long-period (>1 s) ground motions in the Coastal Plains appreciably.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139245873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Earthquake response of reinforced concrete frames with infill and active external confinement: Tests and dataset","authors":"Charles Kerby, Jonathan Monical, Santiago Pujol","doi":"10.1177/87552930231204878","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231204878","url":null,"abstract":"One option to retrofit reinforced concrete (RC) frames is the construction of infill walls. Infill increases lateral strength and stiffness but tends to reduce drift capacity relative to bare frames. Few studies have quantified the reductions in drift demand attributable to infills prior to failure. This report summarizes data from experiments designed to compare drift demands of frames with and without infill. Included data come from two experimental programs completed at Purdue University which focused on the in-plane dynamic response of reduced-scale, non-ductile RC frames to uniaxial simulated earthquake ground motions. 254 dynamic tests were conducted on bare frames, frames with masonry infill walls, and frames with timber infill walls. In 11 of 14 test series, active confinement was applied to columns using external post-tensioned reinforcement. The complete dataset is open-access online on Zenodo, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6954967.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"77 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139251264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analytical fragility relation for buried cast iron pipelines with lead-caulked joints based on machine learning algorithms","authors":"Ning Zhao, Dian-Qing Li, Shi-Xiang Gu, Wenqi Du","doi":"10.1177/87552930231209195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231209195","url":null,"abstract":"A new numerical-based fragility relation for cast iron (CI) pipelines with lead-caulked joints subjected to seismic body-wave propagation is proposed in this article. Two-dimensional 1600-m-length finite element models for pipelines buried in sand are developed in OpenSees. Parametric analysis is performed to investigate the influence of various parameters on the damage estimates of the buried pipelines. Numerical analyses are conducted to estimate the repair rates ( RR) for CI pipelines subjected to wave propagation. The predictive model for RR is thus developed based on the numerical results and the Gaussian Process Regression approach. The model developed employs four predictor variables, namely, the peak particle velocity and wave propagation velocity along axial direction, the maximum soil shear force per unit length, and the outer diameter of pipelines, exhibiting desirable performance in terms of predictive efficiency and generalization. The performance of the developed relation is compared to several existing fragility relations. The new fragility relation can be used to estimate RR for CI pipelines with lead-caulked joints with outer diameters ranging from 169 to 1554 mm subjected to seismic body-wave propagation.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"103 21","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135136828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Subsurface imaging dataset acquired at the Garner Valley Downhole Array site using a dense network of three-component nodal stations","authors":"Joseph P Vantassel, Jodie A Crocker, Brady R Cox, Khiem Tran","doi":"10.1177/87552930231209734","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231209734","url":null,"abstract":"There is a growing need to characterize the engineering material properties of the shallow subsurface in three dimensions for advanced engineering analyses. However, imaging the near-surface in three dimensions at spatial resolutions required for such purposes remains in its infancy and requires further study before it can be adopted into practice. To enable and accelerate research in this area, we present a large subsurface imaging data set acquired using a dense network of three-component (3C) nodal stations acquired in 2019 at the Garner Valley Downhole Array (GVDA) site. Acquisition of this data set involved the deployment of 196 stations positioned on a 14 × 14 grid with a 5 m spacing. The array was used to acquire active-source data generated by a vibroseis truck and an instrumented sledgehammer, and passive-wavefield data containing ambient noise. The active-source acquisition included 66 vibroseis and 209 instrumented sledgehammer source locations. Multiple source impacts were recorded at each source location to enable stacking of the recorded signals. The active-source recordings are provided in terms of both raw, uncorrected units of counts and corrected engineering units of meters per second. For each source impact, the force output from the vibroseis or instrumented sledgehammer was recorded and is provided in both raw counts and engineering units of kilonewtons. The passive-wavefield data include 28 h of ambient noise recorded over two nighttime deployments. The data set is shown to be useful for active-source and passive-wavefield three-dimensional imaging and other subsurface characterization techniques, which include horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs), multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW), and microtremor array measurements (MAM).","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"101 44","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135136418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bayesian analysis of ground motion models using chimney fragility curves: 2021, 5.9-Mw Woods Point intraplate earthquake, Victoria, Australia","authors":"James La Greca, Mark Quigley, Jaroslav Vaculik, Peter Rayner, Trevor Allen","doi":"10.1177/87552930231206399","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231206399","url":null,"abstract":"The 22 September 2021 (AEST) MW 5.9 Woods Point earthquake occurred in an intraplate setting (southeast Australia) approximately 130 km East Northeast of the central business district of Melbourne (pop. ∼5.15 million). A lack of seismic instrumentation and a low population density in the epicentral region resulted in a dearth of near-source instrumental and “felt” report intensity data, limiting evaluation of the near-source performance of ground motion models (GMMs). To address this challenge, we first surveyed unreinforced masonry chimneys following the earthquake to establish damage states and develop fragility curves. Using Bayesian inference, and including pre-earthquake GMM weightings as Bayesian priors, we evaluate the relative performance of GMMs in predicting chimney observations for different fragility functions and seismic velocity profiles. At the most likely VS30 (760 m/s), the best performing models are AB06, A12, and CY08SWISS. GMMs that were preferentially selected for utility in the Australian National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHA18) prior to the Woods Point earthquake outperform other GMMs. The recently developed NGA-East GMM performs relatively well in the more distal region (e.g. >50 km) but is among the poorest performing GMMs in the near-source region across the range of VS30. Our new method of combining analysis of engineered features (chimneys) with Bayesian inference to evaluate the near-source performance of GMMs may have applicability in diverse settings worldwide, particularly in areas of sparse seismic instrumentation.","PeriodicalId":11392,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"16 23","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135973638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}