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Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal最新文献

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Central Banks in Parliaments: A Text Analysis of the Parliamentary Hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve 议会中的中央银行:英国央行、欧洲央行和美联储议会听证会文本分析
Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3646000
Nicolò Fraccaroli, A. Giovannini
{"title":"Central Banks in Parliaments: A Text Analysis of the Parliamentary Hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve","authors":"Nicolò Fraccaroli, A. Giovannini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3646000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3646000","url":null,"abstract":"As the role of central banks expanded, demand for public scrutiny of their actions increased. This paper investigates whether parliamentary hearings, the main tool to hold central banks accountable, are fit for this purpose. Using text analysis, it detects the topics and sentiments in parliamentary hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve from 1999 to 2019. It shows that, while central bank objectives play the most relevant role in determining the topic, unemployment is negatively associated with the focus of hearings on price stability. Sentiments are more negative when uncertainty is higher and when inflation is more distant from the central bank’s inflation aim. These findings suggest that parliamentarians use hearings to scrutinise the performance of central banks in line with their objectives and economic developments, but also that uncertainty is associated with a higher perceived risk of under-performance of central banks. JEL Classification: E02, E52, E58","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76496033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
A Brief Introduction to Human Capital Measures 人力资本措施简介
Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27561
Gang Liu, B. Fraumeni
{"title":"A Brief Introduction to Human Capital Measures","authors":"Gang Liu, B. Fraumeni","doi":"10.3386/w27561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27561","url":null,"abstract":"There are six major measures of human capital, each of which covers at least 130 countries, all of which are described in this paper. These measures are of two distinct types: monetary and index-based. The two monetary versions are those by the World Bank (Lange et al., 2018) and by the United Nations Environmental Program and the Urban Institute of Kyushu University (Managi and Kumar et al., 2018). The four indicator versions are by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington (Lim et al., 2018), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP, 2019), the World Bank (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank, 2018), and the World Economic Forum (World Economic Forum, 2017). In addition to describing each of these six measures, this paper compares them using ranking (Spearman) and level (Pearson) correlations. This paper was written as an introduction to a forthcoming book (Fraumeni, Barbara M., ed., Measuring Human Capital, Academic Press, Cambridge, MA) on human capital in order to help statisticians, researchers, analysts, policy-makers and government officials make an informed choice about which to use as this decision can matter.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85716010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Monetary Policy and COVID-19: Are We Out of the Woods Yet? 货币政策与COVID-19:我们是否已经走出困境?
Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3635440
H. Kouam
{"title":"Monetary Policy and COVID-19: Are We Out of the Woods Yet?","authors":"H. Kouam","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3635440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3635440","url":null,"abstract":"The Corona virus has caused a synchronised cyclical slowdown, with disrupted supply chains and falling revenues causing a retrenchment in economic activity. In an attempt to quell the most negative effects of the virus, central banks have lowered policy rates to varying degrees, absent the ECB, with asset purchases designed to bolster liquidity in financial markets and reduce the costs of bankruptcy. This paper finds heterogeneity in central bank’s COVID-19 response, with the provisions of liquidity for businesses, asset purchases and credit-specific COVID-19 programmes implemented across a majority of advanced economies. As the virus intensified, central banks have prioritised economic growth and an ample supply liquidity in financial markets over inflation outcomes. This paper finds that such measures will support the medium-term outlook, cause a signify ant increase in central bank’s balance sheet and avert a protracted financial and economic crisis.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82596948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investment Funds, Monetary Policy, and the Global Financial Cycle 投资基金、货币政策和全球金融周期
Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3636846
Christoph Kaufmann
{"title":"Investment Funds, Monetary Policy, and the Global Financial Cycle","authors":"Christoph Kaufmann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3636846","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3636846","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper examines the role of international investment funds in the transmission of global financial conditions to the euro area using structural Bayesian vector auto regressions. While cross-border banking sector capital flows receded significantly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, portfolio flows from investors actively searching for yield on financial markets world-wide gained importance during the post-crisis “second phase of global liquidity”(Shin 2013). The analysis presented in this paper shows that a loosening of US monetary policy leads to higher investment fund inflows to equities and debt globally. Focussing on the euro area, these inflows not only imply elevated asset prices, but also coincide with increased debt and equity issuance. The findings demonstrate the growing importance of non-bank financial intermediation over the past decade and hold important policy implications for monetary and financial stability.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"2016 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82785270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Inflation: The Next Threat? 通货膨胀:下一个威胁?
Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3851979
J. Castañeda, T. Congdon
{"title":"Inflation: The Next Threat?","authors":"J. Castañeda, T. Congdon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3851979","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3851979","url":null,"abstract":"The policy reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic will increase budget deficits massively in the world’s leading countries. The deficits will largely be monetised, with heavy state borrowing from both national central banks and commercial banks. The monetisation of budget deficits, combined with official support for emergency bank lending to cash-strained corporates, is leading to extremely high growth rates of the quantity of money. The crisis has shown again that, under fiat monetary systems, the state can create as much as money as it wants. By mid- or late 2021, the pandemic should be under control, and a big bounce-back in aggregate demand and output is to be envisaged. The extremely high growth rates of money observed will instigate an inflationary boom. The scale of the boom will be conditioned by the speed of money growth in the rest of 2020 and in early 2021. Central banks seem heedless of the inflation risks inherent in monetary financing of the growing government deficits. Following the so-called \"New Keynesian Model\" consensus, their economists ignore changes in the quantity of money and consider monetary policy defined exclusively by interest rates, with a narrow focus on the central bank policy rate, long-term interest rates, and the yield curve. The quantity theory of money today provides a theoretical framework, which relates trends in money growth to changes in inflation and nominal GDP over the medium and long terms. A condition for the return of inflation to current target levels is that the rate of money growth is reduced back towards annual rates of increase of about 6% or less.<br>","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"152 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77062225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Central Bank Independence and Systemic Risk 中央银行独立性与系统性风险
Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3641817
A. Andrieș, A. Podpiera, N. Sprincean
{"title":"Central Bank Independence and Systemic Risk","authors":"A. Andrieș, A. Podpiera, N. Sprincean","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3641817","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3641817","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the relationship of central bank independence and banks’ systemic risk measures. Our results support the case for central bank independence, revealing that central bank independence has a robust, negative, and significant impact on the contribution and exposure of a bank to systemic risk. Moreover, the impact of central bank independence is similar for the stand-alone risk of individual banks. Secondarily, we study how the central bank independence affects the impact of selected country and banking system indicators on these systemic measures. The results show that central bank independence may exacerbate the effect of a crisis on the contribution of banks to systemic risk. However, central bank independence seems to mitigate the harmful effect of a bank’s high market power on its systemic risk contribution.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87932005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Sovereign Bond Market Spillovers from Crisis-Time Developments in Greece 希腊危机时期事态发展对主权债券市场的溢出效应
Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3666217
Daragh Clancy, Carmine Gabriele, Diana Žigraiová
{"title":"Sovereign Bond Market Spillovers from Crisis-Time Developments in Greece","authors":"Daragh Clancy, Carmine Gabriele, Diana Žigraiová","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3666217","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3666217","url":null,"abstract":"The systemic importance of a country is a crucial component in the European Stability Mechanism's assessment of financial assistance requests. However, disentangling the effect of developments in one country on other countries in real time is fraught with difficulties. Using empirical methods that provide ex-ante measures of risk exposure, we find that changes in the tail risks of Greek sovereign bond returns resulted in immediate and significant cross-market spillovers to other euro area sovereign bond returns. Our approach provides real-time insights on evolving cross-market interdependencies, such as Germany gradually becoming a safe haven from Greece. We confirm that developments in Greece drive our tail-risk results by linking them to a newly developed intra-day event database. This approach also allows us to provide a more intuitive quantification of the spillovers emanating from Greece. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that developments in Greece significantly affected other euro area sovereign bond markets over and beyond global, euro area and country-specific factors. Our results provide evidence for the systemic importance of Greece throughout the European sovereign debt crisis.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"73 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74057245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
A Jackknife Model Averaging Analysis of RMB Misalignment Estimates 人民币偏差估计的折刀模型平均分析
Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.1142/S1793993320500076
Y. Cheung, Wenhao Wang
{"title":"A Jackknife Model Averaging Analysis of RMB Misalignment Estimates","authors":"Y. Cheung, Wenhao Wang","doi":"10.1142/S1793993320500076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993320500076","url":null,"abstract":"We adopt the Jackknife Model Averaging (JMA) technique to conduct a meta-regression analysis of 925 renminbi (RMB) misalignment estimates generated by 69 studies. The JMA method accounts for model selection and sampling uncertainties, and allows for non-nested model specifications and heteroskedasticity in assessing effects of study characteristics. The RMB misalignment estimates are found to be systematically affected by the choices of data, the theoretical setup and the empirical strategy, in addition to publication attributes of these studies. These study characteristic effects are quite robust to the choice of benchmark study characteristics, to alternative model averaging methods including the heteroskedasticity-robust Mallows approach, the information criterion approach, and the Bayesian model averaging. In evaluating the probabilistic property of RMB misalignment estimates implied by hypothetical composites of study characteristics, we find the evidence of a misaligned RMB, in general, is weak.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79667541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The Great Disconnect: The Decoupling of Wage and Price Inflation in Japan 巨大的脱节:日本工资和物价通胀的脱钩
Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27332
T. Hoshi, A. Kashyap
{"title":"The Great Disconnect: The Decoupling of Wage and Price Inflation in Japan","authors":"T. Hoshi, A. Kashyap","doi":"10.3386/w27332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27332","url":null,"abstract":"We take some well-known observations about the structure of the Japanese labor market and add new evidence about how it has evolved to study inflation in Japan. Our key finding is that labor market dynamics shifted after 1998 so that correlations between labor market tightness and wages weakened noticeably. This change was accompanied in a break in the relationship between wages and prices, so wage inflation has become a much less important determinant of price inflation.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"22 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91491703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 17
A Survey of Research on Retail Central Bank Digital Currency 零售央行数字货币研究综述
Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3639760
J. Kiff, Jihad Alwazir, Sonja Davidovic, Aquiles Farias, Ashraf Khan, Tanai Khiaonarong, Majid Malaika, Hunter Monroe, Nobuyasu Sugimoto, Hervé Tourpe, Peter Zhou
{"title":"A Survey of Research on Retail Central Bank Digital Currency","authors":"J. Kiff, Jihad Alwazir, Sonja Davidovic, Aquiles Farias, Ashraf Khan, Tanai Khiaonarong, Majid Malaika, Hunter Monroe, Nobuyasu Sugimoto, Hervé Tourpe, Peter Zhou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3639760","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3639760","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines key considerations around central bank digital currency (CBDC) for\u0000use by the general public, based on a comprehensive review of recent research, central\u0000bank experiments, and ongoing discussions among stakeholders. It looks at the reasons\u0000why central banks are exploring retail CBDC issuance, policy and design considerations;\u0000legal, governance and regulatory perspectives; plus cybersecurity and other risk\u0000considerations. This paper makes a contribution to the CBDC literature by suggesting a\u0000structured framework to organize discussions on whether or not to issue CBDC, with an\u0000operational focus and a project management perspective.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82807815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 109
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