{"title":"The Cost of Overconfidence in Public Information","authors":"Soosung Hwang, Youngha Cho, Sanha Noh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2784686","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2784686","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the effects of investor overconfidence in public information on cross-sectional asset returns. The results show that investors in the US equity market are overconfident about public signals for mature firms that are relatively easy to price—old, large, and dividend-paying firms, value firms, and firms with a higher proportion of tangible assets, little external financing, and low sales growth. However, the effects of the overconfidence on cross-sectional stock returns are reversed quickly and comprise more than half of the short-term return reversals. The risk-adjusted cost of being overconfident about the noisy public signals, measured by return reversals of hedge portfolios formed on unexpected responses, is over 1.1% per month in the first month after portfolio formation, and is still significant despite the active arbitrage trading in the 2000s.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81094204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Compliance Consequences of Fault Assignment in Sanctions","authors":"Matthew Sooy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2897159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2897159","url":null,"abstract":"Regulators rely heavily on ‘no-fault’ settlements in their enforcement, where targets avoid costly litigation by accepting sanctions without admitting or denying fault. Considerable public debate surrounds the issue but prior research has typically focused on financial dimensions of sanctions such as the magnitude of fines. I conduct an economic experiment where individuals face a costly compliance choice in the presence of sanctions that may either be greater than or less than the benefits of violating, and may also require admission of fault. I observe that compliance is less dependent on the magnitude of fines when fault is assigned in enforcement. I also observe that fault-based compliance is of higher quality. In supplemental analysis, I confirm that participants respond to fault incrementally to economic dimensions of sanctions and observe that participants incorrectly expect that sanction strength, rather than sanction magnitude, will foster greater compliance quality.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"174 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72766535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Damianus Abun, G. J. Q. Basilio, Theogenia Magallanes, M. Encarnacion, Micah Sallong
{"title":"Examining the Link Between Organizational Citizenship Behavior and Work Performance of Employees in the Private Schools, Mediated by Workplace Environment","authors":"Damianus Abun, G. J. Q. Basilio, Theogenia Magallanes, M. Encarnacion, Micah Sallong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3867029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3867029","url":null,"abstract":"The study aimed to determine the organizational citizenship behaviour, work performance and work environment; the correlation between organizational citizenship behaviour and work performance; the correlation between work environment and organizational citizenship behaviour and work performance. Theories were discussed based on the literature and a conceptual framework was established. The study used the descriptive correlational research design and questionnaires were used to gather the data. The population of the study was all employees of the Divine Word Colleges in the Ilocos region, a total of 181 employees. The study found that organizational citizenship, the work performance of employees and the work environment is high and there is a significant correlation between organizational citizenship behaviour and work performance and there is a correlation between work environment and organizational citizenship behaviour and work performance. Therefore, the hypothesis of the study is accepted.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85884445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Ordinal Theory of Risk and Correlation Aversion","authors":"W. Chiu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3267831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3267831","url":null,"abstract":"This paper sets out an analytical framework for decision-making under risk that assumes only utility-representable preferences but is capable of replicating and extending important results obtained in the EU framework. Focusing on decision problems where attitudes towards risk and correlation play an essential role, we show that characterizing attitudes towards risk and correlation in terms of an ordinal utility function of decision parameters enables the extension of existing results obtained in the EU framework on optimal decisions in their relation to how the endogenous and non-financial background risks are correlated to a setting assuming only utility-representable preferences.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90897961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Persuasion Under Costly Learning","authors":"Dong Wei","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3188302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3188302","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A Sender (seller) tries to persuade a rationally inattentive Receiver (buyer) to take a particular action (e.g., buying). Learning is costly for the Receiver who can choose to process strictly less information than what the sender provides. In a binary-action binary-state model, we show that optimal disclosure involves information distortion, but to a lesser extent than the case without learning costs; meanwhile, the Receiver processes less information than what he would under full disclosure. We also find that the Receiver can leverage his potential inattention to attain a higher equilibrium payoff than the perfectly attentive case. While the Sender is always worse off when facing a less attentive Receiver, the amount of information processed in equilibrium varies with learning costs in a non-monotone fashion.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91041592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"I’m in a Hurry, I Don’t Want to Know! Strategic Ignorance Under Time Pressure","authors":"Johannes Jarke-Neuert, J. Lohse","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3699289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3699289","url":null,"abstract":"Information avoidance is common when privately beneficial choices have uncertain and potentially adverse effects on others. A dominant theory holds that such \"strategic ignorance\" allows decision makers to circumvent inner moral conflict while acting self-servingly. In extension of this theory, we hypothesize that time pressure elevates the prevalence of strategic ignorance. We conduct a laboratory experiment with resolvable payoff uncertainty to test this hypothesis. We find that time pressure indeed significantly increases the incidence of information avoidance. As a result, self-serving choices are more common than in a baseline without time pressure. We empirically explore several potential interpretations of this main finding. First, in a control condition, in which payoffs are fully transparent, time pressure has no direct effect on self-serving behavior. This speaks against a general tendency to act more self-servingly or fairly under time pressure. Second, a follow-up study shows that information avoidance under time pressure is attributable to conflict avoidance, rather than providing decision makers with a convenient excuse for not becoming informed. We discuss these observations in the context of a recent body of literature on the cognitive underpinnings of prosocial behavior and argue that they have significant implications for information-based approaches to public policy. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82055937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Paul Black, C. Kirwan, Thomas O. Meservy, W. B. Tayler, Jeffrey O. Williams
{"title":"An fMRI Investigation of the Neurocognitive Processing of Strategies and Measures","authors":"Paul Black, C. Kirwan, Thomas O. Meservy, W. B. Tayler, Jeffrey O. Williams","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3659646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3659646","url":null,"abstract":"A central feature of accounting is the use of measures to represent key elements of performance across multiple strategic objectives. In this study, we directly examine the neural processing of measures and strategic objectives. Our findings suggest that the brain processes measures (which are more concrete) and strategies (which are more abstract) differently. Consistent with context availability theory, we find a pattern of results suggesting that measures are processed more readily than strategies. We further find evidence suggesting that this difference in processing is a key determinant of surrogation, the tendency for individuals to treat measures as though they are the strategic objectives they represent as opposed to imperfect representations of those strategic objectives. Specifically, we find that greater overall fMRI activation in brain regions that differentially process measures and strategies is associated with less surrogation.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87069924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Improving the Statistical Power and Reliability of Research Using Amazon Mechanical Turk","authors":"Jeremiah W. Bentley","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2924876","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2924876","url":null,"abstract":"Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) is an increasingly popular source of experimental participants due to its convenience and low cost (relative to traditional laboratories). However, MTurk presents challenges related to statistical power and reliability. These challenges are not unique to MTurk, but are more prevalent than in research conducted with other participant pools. In this paper I discuss several reasons why research conducted with MTurk may face additional power and reliability challenges. I then present suggestions for dealing with these challenges, taking advantage of the comparative strengths of MTurk. The discussion should be of interest to PhD students and other researchers considering using MTurk or other online platforms as a source of experimental participants as well as to reviewers and editors who are considering quality control standards for research conducted with this participant pool.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89853767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How time flies!","authors":"Xiu Chen, Xiaojian Zhao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3285834","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3285834","url":null,"abstract":"The paper points out a potential gap between intertemporal choices and time preference: The observed intertemporal decisions could be partly driven by a biased perception of time, and thus may not completely reveal the actual time preference. To test this conjecture, we explore the relationship between time perception and intertemporal choices by conducting a laboratory experiment, in which cognitive load is used as an instrument to manipulate time perception. We establish that the perceived time lengths for subjects with high cognitive load are shorter than those with low load. We also observe a correlation between an individual's time overestimation and his apparent impatience. Our study suggests that time perception indeed mediates part of the cognitive load's effect on intertemporal choices, calling for improving suboptimal time-related decisions as a result of potentially biased perception of how time flies.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76378161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How Choice Complexity in Liberalized Markets Hurts the Demand for Green Electricity","authors":"Rebekka Bärenbold, Manuel Grieder, R. Schubert","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3628373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3628373","url":null,"abstract":"Many countries have liberalized their residential electricity markets or are considering to do so. Liberalization provides consumers with more freedom of choice but also leads to higher choice complexity as consumers face a much larger number of different electricity contracts to choose from. We hypothesize that consumers react to this increased choice complexity in liberalized markets by applying simplified decision strategies that allow them to reduce cognitive effort. In particular, we predict that with increasing size of choice sets, consumers focus more on simple price attributes of electricity contracts and less on the relatively complex environmental attributes, leading to a decrease in the demand for green electricity. In two online experiments conducted in a representative (n=610) and a student sample (n=1,212) in Switzerland, we find that indeed when faced with a larger choice set participants focus more on prices and choose cheaper electricity contracts containing less renewable and more conventional energy than when faced with a smaller choice set. In addition, we also find evidence that a tax on conventional energy is a more effective policy instrument for shifting demand towards renewables than behavioral instruments in the form of social norm interventions. Our results suggest that a liberalization of the household electricity market has to be carefully managed such that consumers are not overwhelmed and do not shift their demand to cheaper but less environmentally-friendly energy sources.<br>","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89424629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}