Climate Research最新文献_第7页

Spatiotemporal variation in climatic conditions across ecosystems 生态系统间气候条件的时空变化

IF 1.1 4区地球科学

Climate Research Pub Date : 2021-06-17 DOI: 10.3354/CR01641

I. Herfindal, S. Aanes, R. Benestad, A. Finstad, A. Salthaug, N. Stenseth, B. Sæther

{"title":"Spatiotemporal variation in climatic conditions across ecosystems","authors":"I. Herfindal, S. Aanes, R. Benestad, A. Finstad, A. Salthaug, N. Stenseth, B. Sæther","doi":"10.3354/CR01641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/CR01641","url":null,"abstract":"Environmental variation in time and space affects biological processes such as extinction risk and speed of adaptation to environmental change. The spatial structure of environmental variation may vary among ecosystems, for instance due to differences in the flow of nutrients, genes and individuals. However, inferences about ecosystem spatial scale should also include spatial autocorrelation in environmental stochasticity, such as fluctuations in weather or climate. We used spatially structured time series (19-36 yr) on temperature from 4 different ecosystems (terrestrial, limnic, coastal sea and open ocean) to assess the spatiotemporal patterns of environmental variation over large geographical scales (up to 1900 km) during summer and winter. The distance of positive spatial autocorrelation in mean temperature was greatest for the terrestrial system (range: 592-622 km), and shorter for the open ocean (range: 472-414 km), coastal sea (range: 155-814 km) and the limnic systems (range: 51-324 km), suggesting a stronger spatial structure in environmental variation in the terrestrial system. The terrestrial system had high spatial synchrony in temperature (mean correlation: winter = 0.82, summer = 0.66) with a great spatial scaling (>650 km). Consequently, populations of terrestrial species experience similar environmental fluctuations even at distances up to 1000 km, compared to species in the aquatic systems (<500 km). There were clear seasonal differences in environmental synchrony in the terrestrial and limnic systems, but less so in the other systems. Our results suggest that biological processes affected by environmental stochasticity occur at the largest spatial scale in terrestrial systems, but their magnitude depends on whether the process is affected by winter or summer conditions.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77236366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6

Ocean–Land Atmosphere Model (OLAM) performance for major extreme meteorological events near the coastal region of southern Brazil 巴西南部沿海地区主要极端气象事件的海陆大气模式(OLAM)表现

IF 1.1 4区地球科学

Climate Research Pub Date : 2021-06-03 DOI: 10.3354/CR01651

D. C. Souza, Renato Ramos da Silva

引用次数: 3

Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies on rainfed and irrigated maize in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Northwestern China 气候变化对西北农牧交错带旱作玉米的影响及适应策略

IF 1.1 4区地球科学

Climate Research Pub Date : 2021-04-08 DOI: 10.3354/CR01635

Z. Han, B. Zhang, G. Hoogenboom, Xia Li, C. He

{"title":"Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies on rainfed and irrigated maize in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Northwestern China","authors":"Z. Han, B. Zhang, G. Hoogenboom, Xia Li, C. He","doi":"10.3354/CR01635","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/CR01635","url":null,"abstract":"The agro-pastoral ecotone of Northwestern China (APENC) is one of the major agricultural production areas in China and a region where climate change is evident. Maize is a widely cultivated crop in the APENC, but the potential impact of climate change on maize, and potential adaptation strategies in response to this, are poorly understood. In this study, we used the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize to evaluate the impacts of climate change on maize yield, as well as the feasibility of 2 adaptation strategies; namely, adjusting the planting date and supplying irrigation. CSM-CERES-Maize was driven by an ensemble of 20 global climate models under 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). CSM-CERES-Maize performed well in simulating phenology, leaf area index (LAI), maize yield, and soil water dynamics. The results showed that irrigated maize yield would change by +3.9, -16.3, and -20.4% under the RCP4.5 scenario and +0.1, -31.2, and -53.1% under the RCP8.5 scenario in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, respectively. Rainfed maize yield during the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s would change by +21.7, +16.4, and +12.6% under the RCP4.5 scenario and +25.1, +4.8, and -12.3% under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Evaluation of adaptation strategies suggests that delaying planting dates and supplying irrigation at the tasseling and grain filling stages are the best strategies to increase maize yield under climate change. These results will provide comprehensive information for local policymakers to combat the adverse impacts of climate change.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"18 1","pages":"75-90"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84571554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Impact of Automated Statistical Downscaling and Delta Downscaling methods on projecting future climate change in the northeast Tibetan Plateau 自动统计降尺度和三角洲降尺度方法对青藏高原东北部未来气候变化预测的影响

IF 1.1 4区地球科学

Climate Research Pub Date : 2021-04-08 DOI: 10.3354/CR01634

A. Chen, S. Zhang, Z. Li

{"title":"Impact of Automated Statistical Downscaling and Delta Downscaling methods on projecting future climate change in the northeast Tibetan Plateau","authors":"A. Chen, S. Zhang, Z. Li","doi":"10.3354/CR01634","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/CR01634","url":null,"abstract":"The accuracy of different downscaling methods in projecting future precipitation and air temperature from general circulation models (GCMs) has rarely been addressed with regards to the Tibetan Plateau, and this information is important for future water resource management in the region. The performance of automated statistical downscaling (ASD) and Delta downscaling methods in predicting precipitation and air temperature was evaluated at 19 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor (QM-HC) by comparing with in situ observations from 2006-2015. These comparisons, based on Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5), suggest that the difference in annual precipitation between the ASD model and the Delta method is 17 mm. Testing different weights of the 2 downscaling methods indicates that combining the 2 methods results in lower uncertainty. The downscaling of annual precipitation projected by weighting the results of the 2 methods suggested that, based on RCP4.5, precipitation will not increase significantly from 2021-2100 compared to the past (1961-2005) and will fluctuate steadily in the coming decades. These projections are in contrast with previous projections of a significant increase. Air temperature is projected to increase by approximately 0.2°C decade-1 from 2021-2100 according to the weighted average of the ASD model and Delta method based on RCP4.5. This study indicates that management measures based on projected increased precipitation should be carefully reconsidered in different regions.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"3 1","pages":"91-110"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88666563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Role of the eastern Pacific-Caribbean Sea SST gradient in the Choco low-level jet variations from 1900-2015 1900-2015年东太平洋-加勒比海海温梯度在Choco低空急流变化中的作用

IF 1.1 4区地球科学

Climate Research Pub Date : 2021-03-25 DOI: 10.3354/cr01633

W. L. Cerón, RV Andreoli, M. Kayano, Álvaro Ávila-Díaz

{"title":"Role of the eastern Pacific-Caribbean Sea SST gradient in the Choco low-level jet variations from 1900-2015","authors":"W. L. Cerón, RV Andreoli, M. Kayano, Álvaro Ávila-Díaz","doi":"10.3354/cr01633","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01633","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we propose a novel approach for assessing the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean Sea on the Choco low-level jet (CJ) intensity over the 1900-2015 period that involved defining the interbasin gradient index (IGR) between these 2 oceanic basins. We also studied the effects on rainfall in northwestern South America and Central America in the high CJ season during September-November (SON). Wavelet coherence analysis showed high consistency between CJ and IGR on an interannual scale of 2-8 yr. Precipitation increased over central, western, and northern Colombia and most of Central America during strong CJ (SCJ) and decreased during weak CJ (WCJ) events, which occurred, respectively, in the negative IGR (NIGR) and positive IGR (PIGR) phases. NIGR is associated with anomalous cooling in the tropical Pacific and warming in the equatorial Atlantic; opposite patterns are observed during PIGR. Also, the CJ and the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) showed reversed intensities such that as one strengthened, the other weakened and vice versa. Our results indicate that the low-frequency SST anomalies in the North Atlantic affect the IGR and low-level jet intensities associated with changes in large-scale circulation modulated by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Indeed, positive precipitation anomalies during the SCJ under NIGR were more accentuated and extensive in the warm AMO (WAMO) than in the cold AMO (CAMO) phase. Conversely, negative precipitation anomalies during WCJ under PIGR were more accentuated and extensive in the CAMO than in the WAMO.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"6 1","pages":"61-74"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88738523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

Tree ring-reconstructed late summer moisture conditions, 1546 to present, northern Lake Michigan, USA 1546年至今，美国密西根湖北部树木年轮重建的夏末湿度状况

IF 1.1 4区地球科学

Climate Research Pub Date : 2021-03-11 DOI: 10.3354/CR01637

Scott M. Warner, Samantha J. Jeffries, W. Lovis, A. Arbogast, F. Telewski

{"title":"Tree ring-reconstructed late summer moisture conditions, 1546 to present, northern Lake Michigan, USA","authors":"Scott M. Warner, Samantha J. Jeffries, W. Lovis, A. Arbogast, F. Telewski","doi":"10.3354/CR01637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/CR01637","url":null,"abstract":"Drought can affect even humid regions like northeastern North America, which experienced significant, well-documented dry spells in the 1930s, 50s, 60s, and 80s, and proxies tell us that in the years before instrumentally recorded climate, droughts could be even more severe. To get a more complete picture of pre-recorded climate, the spatial coverage of proxy-based climate reconstructions must be extended. This can better put in context past, current, and future climate, and it can lend anthropological and historical insights. With regard to tree rings as climate proxies, however, there is increasing evidence that relationships between tree growth and climate can be inconsistent over time, in some cases decreasing the utility of tree rings in the representation of climate. We developed a chronology from white cedar Thuja occidentalis tree ring widths for the period 1469-2015 C.E. with which we modeled the relationship between growth and July-September moisture conditions (Palmer Z index). The relationship was consistent across the period of instrumentally recorded climate, 1895-present, and the model explained 27% of variability. Therefore, we used the model to reconstruct July-September moisture conditions from 1546-2014. We found the most variable century to be the 20th, the least the 18th. The severest decade-scale droughts (≤0.75 SD from mean) occurred in the 1560s, 1600s/10s, 1630s, 1770s/80s, 1840s, and 1910s/20s, the severest pluvials (≥0.75 SD) in the 1610s/20s, 1660s/70s, and the 1970s/80s. The occasional occurrence of severe droughts throughout the reconstruction, increasing variability in the 20th century, and expected climate change-enhanced late summer drought, portend a future punctuated with severe droughts.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"21 1","pages":"43-56"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82704012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

The future of paleoclimate 古气候的未来

IF 1.1 4区地球科学

Climate Research Pub Date : 2021-03-11 DOI: 10.3354/CR01636

J. Esper, U. Büntgen

引用次数: 5

Non-pooled oak (Quercus spp.) stable isotopes reveal enhanced climate sensitivity compared to ring widths 非池栎(栎属)稳定同位素表明，与环宽度相比，气候敏感性增强

IF 1.1 4区地球科学

Climate Research Pub Date : 2021-02-25 DOI: 10.3354/cr01632

M. Rybníček, T. Kolář, A. Ač, J. Balek, E. Koňasová, M. Trnka, O. Urban, U. Büntgen

{"title":"Non-pooled oak (Quercus spp.) stable isotopes reveal enhanced climate sensitivity compared to ring widths","authors":"M. Rybníček, T. Kolář, A. Ač, J. Balek, E. Koňasová, M. Trnka, O. Urban, U. Büntgen","doi":"10.3354/cr01632","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01632","url":null,"abstract":"Multi-centennial- to millennial-long oak (Quercus spp.) tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies from living and relict wood are frequently used for climate reconstructions, but the amount of explained hydroclimatic variation remains relatively small. Although stable carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios (δ13C and δ18O values) in tree rings may offer enhanced climate sensitivity, our understanding of their paleoclimatic sensitivity is still limited by the general lack of well-replicated and high-resolution datasets. Here, we assessed the temperature, precipitation, and drought signal of annual δ13C and δ18O values and TRW measurements from 21 oaks growing under different ecological settings in the Czech Republic. Compared to the overall low climate sensitivity of TRW, the δ13C and δ18O chronologies revealed significant positive and negative correlations with March-August mean temperature and hydroclimate (for the period 1901-2018), respectively. Additional tests on the effect of sample size demonstrated robust climate sensitivity of the isotopic chronologies when non-pooled alpha cellulose from the latewood of at least 6 individual oaks was used. Our study suggests that oak stable isotopes are possibly the best high-resolution paleoclimatic proxy for the Central European lowlands, as well as any other temperate habitat where oak wood has historically been used as construction timber, and where traditional tree-ring parameters, such as TRW, tend to fail.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"67 1","pages":"27-41"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89617522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Industrial Water Demand by Sector 气候变化对各行业工业用水需求的影响评估

IF 1.1 4区地球科学

Climate Research Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3354/CR01661

X. Zhang, Jy Zhang, Tq Ao, X.-j. Wang, T. Chen, BX Wang

引用次数: 2

Future changes in aridity in the Upper Indus Basin during the twenty-first century 21世纪上印度河流域干旱的未来变化

IF 1.1 4区地球科学

Climate Research Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3354/cr01684

X. Wang, X. Lang, D. Jiang

引用次数: 0