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Within-game uncertainty of outcome and the demand for professional basketball on television 赛内结果的不确定性与电视对职业篮球的需求
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100044
{"title":"Within-game uncertainty of outcome and the demand for professional basketball on television","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100044","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100044","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides one of the first tests of the within-game uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. We examine the relationship between the demand for nationally televised regular season NBA basketball viewing and outcome uncertainty while the games are being played. We use granular television viewing and scoring data and account for the dynamics of television viewing. We find evidence of modest but statistically significant effects of outcome uncertainty on the size of the TV viewing audience which occur largely at the end of the game, supporting the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. These effects are subject to diminishing marginal returns. We also find evidence of a sizable independent loss of viewers at halftime and the end of games that is unrelated to outcome uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142579072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Competing against former teammates predicts team victory 与昔日队友较量，预示着团队的胜利
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100043
{"title":"Competing against former teammates predicts team victory","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The small but growing body of research on team vs. team competition focuses on predicting the winner based on multilevel factors, including the team's strength and prior relations among team members within a team. Our research demonstrates the significance and power of prior relations among members between competing teams in predicting the outcome of a contest. Leveraging data over 8 seasons of the Indian Premier League (IPL), we demonstrate the effects of competing against former teammates on a team's victory in IPL matches. If two teams, A and B, are competing in a match, and n<sub>A</sub> players from A are former teammates of players on B and n<sub>B</sub> players from B are former teammates of players on A, then if team A has smaller values of n<sub>A</sub>, it will have a competitive advantage over Team B with a higher value of n<sub>B.</sub> We call the magnitude of the difference of n<sub>A</sub> and n<sub>B</sub> the “ecosystem” factor in predicting performance. Using regression and stochastic network models, we find that the ecosystem factor significantly impacts the outcome of a match. Our findings have implications for franchise owners. While recruiting a player, franchise owners should not rely solely on the player's ability but also leverage the rivalry between former teammates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142421892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparing two methods for testing the efficiency of sports betting markets 比较检验体育博彩市场效率的两种方法
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100042
{"title":"Comparing two methods for testing the efficiency of sports betting markets","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sports betting markets can be considered strongly efficient if expected returns on all possible bets on an event are equal. If this form of efficiency holds, then there is a direct mapping from betting odds into probabilities of outcomes of sporting events. We compare two regression-based methods for testing this form of efficiency that have been used in previous research: One that uses normalized probabilities as the explanatory variable for event outcomes and one that uses the inverse of the decimal odds. We show that the normalized probability method produces good tests of the null hypothesis of strong market efficiency but that the inverse odds method does not, with results biased against finding favorite-longshot bias. We illustrate this finding using large datasets of bets and outcomes for tennis and soccer and also with realistic simulations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142357303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is there a nationality wage premium in European football? 欧洲足球是否存在国籍工资溢价？
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100040
{"title":"Is there a nationality wage premium in European football?","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate the presence of nationality salary premia in two top European football leagues (the Premier League and Serie A). We uncover a substantial pay premium for South American players (primarily driven by Argentina and Brazil) of between 11 and 15 per cent in magnitude. We investigate possible mechanisms, such as whether these salary effects are driven by new entrants to the league, and whether they are reflected in team attendances and team performance. Fans appear to respond to higher proportions of South American players in England, but not in Italy. We discuss the implications of these results and suggest why potential differences might exist across the leagues.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S277316182400017X/pdfft?md5=c4fde6dcbcec1c9a1163d09f5e036a1b&pid=1-s2.0-S277316182400017X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142129027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Professionals do play Minimax: Revisiting the Nash equilibrium in Major League Baseball 职业球员确实在玩 Minimax：重新审视美国职业棒球大联盟的纳什均衡
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100039
{"title":"Professionals do play Minimax: Revisiting the Nash equilibrium in Major League Baseball","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present a game-theoretic model of baseball as a two-by-two normal-form game between pitchers and batters, where batters decide whether to swing or hold, and pitchers choose whether to throw inside or outside the strike zone. We use machine learning to label pitches that have not been swung at. Our approach enables testing of the predictions derived from the Minimax Theorem for both players. The hypotheses of equality of payoffs across actions and the absence of serial correlation hold for the majority of players. Batters exhibit lower swing rates than theoretical predictions, while pitchers tend to throw inside the strike zone more frequently than expected.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142087801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Momentum-stopping: Effects on performance 停止动力：对成绩的影响
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100038
{"title":"Momentum-stopping: Effects on performance","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100038","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100038","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Does success breed success? Psychological momentum theory suggests that past achievements might influence future performance. However, distinguishing between psychological and strategic momentum — where a player's effort shifts based on relative position — is challenging. In this paper, using a novel dataset from professional <em>Counter-Strike: Global Offensive</em> matches, I focus on technical timeouts. These timeouts don't affect player position but may disrupt psychological momentum. I find that a winning [losing] team with significant momentum sees a 13 [11.7] percentage points increased chance of losing [winning] the following round after calling for such a timeout. This shows that psychological momentum significantly affects performance and that timeouts can reset the momentum.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141979060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Incentives matter sometimes: On the differences between league and Cup football matches 激励有时很重要：联赛与杯赛的区别
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100037
{"title":"Incentives matter sometimes: On the differences between league and Cup football matches","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Economic agents react to incentives, and this holds true for professional football teams as well. Double round-robin and single-match elimination represent two opposite competition regimes, with incentives varying distinctly between them. At the level of individual matches, a single defeat needs not be fatal under a double round-robin regime, unlike in a single-match elimination system. Utilizing data from Dutch professional football from the 2004/05 season to the 2022/23 season, we compare single-match elimination Cup matches with double round-robin league matches, focusing on stadium attendance, match results, and home advantage. Stadium attendance tends to be lower in Cup matches, although the gap narrows in later stages of the Cup tournament, and it eventually disappears. The home advantage is similar in Cup matches and league matches, but when Cup matches extend beyond regular time, the home advantage diminishes. In later stages of the Cup tournament, both during extra time and penalty shootouts, home advantage appears to be virtually absent.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773161824000144/pdfft?md5=2126c5d2378df2ffaf1b960e9addf4c8&pid=1-s2.0-S2773161824000144-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141844156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The transfer market for sports players - A contest theory approach 体育运动员的转会市场--一种竞赛理论方法
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100035
Yizhaq Minchuk
{"title":"The transfer market for sports players - A contest theory approach","authors":"Yizhaq Minchuk","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.serev.2024.100035","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The transfer market for sports players is analyzed using a contest theory approach. A sports team exerts two types of effort in order to attract a player: productive effort, for which the team incurs a cost only if the player signs a contract with them; and persuading effort, for which the team incurs a cost regardless. The findings describe the conditions under which there will be no persuading effort, as well as the impact of persuading effort on productive effort and the contestant's utility.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141091055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Competitive balance in professional sports: A multi-dimensional perspective 职业体育中的竞争平衡：多维视角
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100034
Levi Bognar , Scott A. Brave , R. Andrew Butters , Kevin A. Roberts
{"title":"Competitive balance in professional sports: A multi-dimensional perspective","authors":"Levi Bognar ,&nbsp;Scott A. Brave ,&nbsp;R. Andrew Butters ,&nbsp;Kevin A. Roberts","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>What constitutes competitive balance is a contentious issue in professional sports. We contribute to this debate with a simple framework encapsulating multiple viewpoints of competitive balance and highlight how this framework suggests that there could be an inherent tradeoff along two common dimensions. Using the framework as a lens for comparing North American professional sports leagues, we then demonstrate how important changes over time in the collective bargaining process have influenced the competitive balance of these leagues in different ways. Finally, we discuss and provide descriptive evidence for the influence of differences in non-gate revenue growth across leagues and how it might have affected their competitive balance in recent years. (JEL L83, D63, C23).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141055317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Hockey babies: National Hockey League outcomes and short-term fertility spikes in Canada 冰球宝宝加拿大国家曲棍球联盟的成果与短期生育高峰
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100033
Maryam Dilmaghani , Min Hu
{"title":"Hockey babies: National Hockey League outcomes and short-term fertility spikes in Canada","authors":"Maryam Dilmaghani ,&nbsp;Min Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.serev.2024.100033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Previous research shows that mood-altering events, such as sports results, elections outcomes and natural disasters, impact fertility, crime rate, and investor behaviour. In this paper, we use recent Canadian Birth Statistics and the National Hockey League (NHL) results to examine the link between sports events and short-term fertility spikes. In addition, using betting odds, we differentiate among unexpected wins, unexpected losses, and expected outcomes, as a test for the relevance of the Prospect Theory to this context. Our dataset is a daily panel, following all the seven Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas with a team in the NHL, from 2008 to 2019. In our panel fixed effects estimations, we account for the day of the week and all statutory federal and provincial holidays of Canada. In the estimations with raw NHL results, the coefficients of interest ultimately lose their statistical significance. In the specifications accounting for expectations, we find a statistically significant association with fertility for unexpected wins, and statistically insignificant coefficients for unexpected losses as well as expected NHL outcomes. In light of the results, we propose the greater likelihood of pre-game social gatherings on sports nights and celebratory sex after the euphoria of an unexpected win, as the possible channels of impact.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140546283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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