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A Bayesian framework for analyzing alleged cheating in sports through hidden codes, with applications to bridge and baseball
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100050
Aafko Boonstra, Ronald Meester
{"title":"A Bayesian framework for analyzing alleged cheating in sports through hidden codes, with applications to bridge and baseball","authors":"Aafko Boonstra,&nbsp;Ronald Meester","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2025.100050","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2025.100050","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a statistical framework to evaluate evidence of alleged cheating involving illegal signaling in sports from a forensic perspective. We explain why, instead of a frequentist procedure, a Bayesian approach is called for. We apply this framework to cases of alleged cheating in professional bridge and professional baseball. The diversity of these applications illustrates the generality of the method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 100050"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Physical decline rates: Men versus women
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100049
Ray C. Fair
{"title":"Physical decline rates: Men versus women","authors":"Ray C. Fair","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2025.100049","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2025.100049","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses world records by age in running, swimming, and rowing to estimate a biological frontier of decline rates for both men and women. Decline rates are assumed to be linear in percent terms up to a certain age and then quadratic after that, where the transition age is estimated. The use of world records avoids the possible problem of survivor bias in a sample.</div><div>The decline rates are smallest for rowing, followed by swimming and then running. Decline rates for women are roughly the same as those for men for the swimming events. They are slightly larger for the rowing events. They are largest for running. The age at which there is a 50 percent decline from age 30 ranges from 70 to 89, an optimistic result for humans. Ten year decline rates from age 40 to about the mid 60's are about 10 percent for running and 5 percent for swimming and rowing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 100049"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143488533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of physical activity on cognition in children and adolescents: From core concepts to findings and implementation in practise
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100048
Carina Steckenleiter
{"title":"Effects of physical activity on cognition in children and adolescents: From core concepts to findings and implementation in practise","authors":"Carina Steckenleiter","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2025.100048","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2025.100048","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides an overview of the literature on effects of physical activity on cognition for children and adolescents. Aimed as a starting point into this active research field, it guides the interested reader from core concepts, a summary of research findings to characteristics of successful programs as well as barriers and motives for participation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 100048"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143204270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Referee bias in football: Actual vs. expected additional time
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100047
Alperen Kocsoy
{"title":"Referee bias in football: Actual vs. expected additional time","authors":"Alperen Kocsoy","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2025.100047","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2025.100047","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study introduces ball-in-play time as a novel variable to assess potential referee bias in football concerning additional time decisions. The study begins by calculating the expected additional times using ball-in-play data. Hence, any systematic difference between actual and expected additional time can be considered ‘bias’ if the difference depends on the winner. By using matches played behind closed doors during the Covid-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, the analysis reveals a trend that referees exhibit a bias towards home teams, but crucially, only in the presence of fans. This suggests that social pressure exerted by fans significantly influences individuals’ decisions. Moreover, the magnitude of this bias increases with crowd size. Then, the study examines the post-pandemic period, exploring whether referees adjusted to a more impartial stance due to their experience during matches played behind closed doors. The propensity to favour home teams remains prevalent once fans return to the stadiums. Furthermore, the study shows no significant association between referee experience or quality and referee bias. The study concludes with a recommendation to mitigate the bias.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 100047"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
‘Good job!’ the impact of positive and negative feedback on performance 干得好！"积极和消极反馈对绩效的影响
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100045
Daniel Goller , Maximilian Späth
{"title":"‘Good job!’ the impact of positive and negative feedback on performance","authors":"Daniel Goller ,&nbsp;Maximilian Späth","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100045","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100045","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the effect of positive and negative feedback on professional performance. For this, we exploit a unique data source in which quasi-random, naturally occurring variations within subjective ratings serve as positive and negative feedback. Our analysis suggests that receiving positive feedback has a favorable impact on subsequent performance, while negative feedback does not have an effect. These main results are found in two distinct environments and for different cultural backgrounds, experiences, and genders of the feedback recipients. The favorable impact of positive feedback is short-term, repeatable, and stronger for highly relevant tasks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100045"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Within-game uncertainty of outcome and the demand for professional basketball on television 赛内结果的不确定性与电视对职业篮球的需求
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100044
John Solow , Patrick Reilly , Peter von Allmen
{"title":"Within-game uncertainty of outcome and the demand for professional basketball on television","authors":"John Solow ,&nbsp;Patrick Reilly ,&nbsp;Peter von Allmen","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100044","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100044","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides one of the first tests of the within-game uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. We examine the relationship between the demand for nationally televised regular season NBA basketball viewing and outcome uncertainty while the games are being played. We use granular television viewing and scoring data and account for the dynamics of television viewing. We find evidence of modest but statistically significant effects of outcome uncertainty on the size of the TV viewing audience which occur largely at the end of the game, supporting the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. These effects are subject to diminishing marginal returns. We also find evidence of a sizable independent loss of viewers at halftime and the end of games that is unrelated to outcome uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100044"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142579072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Competing against former teammates predicts team victory 与昔日队友较量，预示着团队的胜利
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100043
Satyam Mukherjee , Yun Huang , Brian Uzzi , Noshir Contractor
{"title":"Competing against former teammates predicts team victory","authors":"Satyam Mukherjee ,&nbsp;Yun Huang ,&nbsp;Brian Uzzi ,&nbsp;Noshir Contractor","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The small but growing body of research on team vs. team competition focuses on predicting the winner based on multilevel factors, including the team's strength and prior relations among team members within a team. Our research demonstrates the significance and power of prior relations among members between competing teams in predicting the outcome of a contest. Leveraging data over 8 seasons of the Indian Premier League (IPL), we demonstrate the effects of competing against former teammates on a team's victory in IPL matches. If two teams, A and B, are competing in a match, and n<sub>A</sub> players from A are former teammates of players on B and n<sub>B</sub> players from B are former teammates of players on A, then if team A has smaller values of n<sub>A</sub>, it will have a competitive advantage over Team B with a higher value of n<sub>B.</sub> We call the magnitude of the difference of n<sub>A</sub> and n<sub>B</sub> the “ecosystem” factor in predicting performance. Using regression and stochastic network models, we find that the ecosystem factor significantly impacts the outcome of a match. Our findings have implications for franchise owners. While recruiting a player, franchise owners should not rely solely on the player's ability but also leverage the rivalry between former teammates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100043"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142421892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparing two methods for testing the efficiency of sports betting markets 比较检验体育博彩市场效率的两种方法
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100042
Tadgh Hegarty, Karl Whelan
{"title":"Comparing two methods for testing the efficiency of sports betting markets","authors":"Tadgh Hegarty,&nbsp;Karl Whelan","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sports betting markets can be considered strongly efficient if expected returns on all possible bets on an event are equal. If this form of efficiency holds, then there is a direct mapping from betting odds into probabilities of outcomes of sporting events. We compare two regression-based methods for testing this form of efficiency that have been used in previous research: One that uses normalized probabilities as the explanatory variable for event outcomes and one that uses the inverse of the decimal odds. We show that the normalized probability method produces good tests of the null hypothesis of strong market efficiency but that the inverse odds method does not, with results biased against finding favorite-longshot bias. We illustrate this finding using large datasets of bets and outcomes for tennis and soccer and also with realistic simulations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100042"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142357303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is there a nationality wage premium in European football? 欧洲足球是否存在国籍工资溢价？
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100040
Alex Farnell , David Butler , Giambattista Rossi , Robert Simmons , David Berri , Esperance Yassine Bamba
{"title":"Is there a nationality wage premium in European football?","authors":"Alex Farnell ,&nbsp;David Butler ,&nbsp;Giambattista Rossi ,&nbsp;Robert Simmons ,&nbsp;David Berri ,&nbsp;Esperance Yassine Bamba","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate the presence of nationality salary premia in two top European football leagues (the Premier League and Serie A). We uncover a substantial pay premium for South American players (primarily driven by Argentina and Brazil) of between 11 and 15 per cent in magnitude. We investigate possible mechanisms, such as whether these salary effects are driven by new entrants to the league, and whether they are reflected in team attendances and team performance. Fans appear to respond to higher proportions of South American players in England, but not in Italy. We discuss the implications of these results and suggest why potential differences might exist across the leagues.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":"7 ","pages":"Article 100040"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S277316182400017X/pdfft?md5=c4fde6dcbcec1c9a1163d09f5e036a1b&pid=1-s2.0-S277316182400017X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142129027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Professionals do play Minimax: Revisiting the Nash equilibrium in Major League Baseball 职业球员确实在玩 Minimax：重新审视美国职业棒球大联盟的纳什均衡
Sports Economics Review Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100039
Jean-François Mercier
{"title":"Professionals do play Minimax: Revisiting the Nash equilibrium in Major League Baseball","authors":"Jean-François Mercier","doi":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.serev.2024.100039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present a game-theoretic model of baseball as a two-by-two normal-form game between pitchers and batters, where batters decide whether to swing or hold, and pitchers choose whether to throw inside or outside the strike zone. We use machine learning to label pitches that have not been swung at. Our approach enables testing of the predictions derived from the Minimax Theorem for both players. The hypotheses of equality of payoffs across actions and the absence of serial correlation hold for the majority of players. Batters exhibit lower swing rates than theoretical predictions, while pitchers tend to throw inside the strike zone more frequently than expected.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101182,"journal":{"name":"Sports Economics Review","volume":"7 ","pages":"Article 100039"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142087801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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