Global Environmental Change Advances最新文献

{"title":"Heterogeneous and long-term effects of a changing climate on bird biodiversity","authors":"Luoye Chen ,&nbsp;Madhu Khanna","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2024.100008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecadv.2024.100008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Bird biodiversity in the United States is declining at alarming rates. Despite concerns about the link between climate change and the decline in bird biodiversity, there is limited understanding of the heterogeneous effects of climate change across species and regions and the extent to which these effects persist over time. Using a long-term dataset of the North American bird population from 1980 to 2015, we find statistically significant and robust evidence that an unconditional one-standard-deviation increase in the days above 25 °C (currently 7.8 days in a year but projected to exceed 28 days by the century’s end) decreases bird abundance and species richness by 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively; these effects are more pronounced for specialist birds (4.9% and 2.9%), long-distance migrant specialist species (5.2% and 3.2%), and bird populations in the drier areas, such as the West (7.0% and 2.5%). Additionally, we find no evidence of a diminishing impact of high temperatures on bird biodiversity over this period. Projecting forward to the end of this century, our models suggest that, depending on the extent of warming, the abundance and species richness of specialist birds could decline by 7%-16% and 4%-9%, respectively, relative to current levels. Though less pronounced, a statistically significant decline of 1–3% is also projected for generalist bird populations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"2 ","pages":"Article 100008"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950138524000044/pdfft?md5=10c69ec6cc34352f8a455122db74c834&pid=1-s2.0-S2950138524000044-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140650074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using climate-fire analog mapping to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildland fire in protected areas of the conterminous US","authors":"Adam Terando ,&nbsp;Peng Gao ,&nbsp;John A. Kupfer ,&nbsp;Kevin S. Young ,&nbsp;J. Kevin Hiers","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2024.100007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecadv.2024.100007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Potential changes in wildland fire regimes due to anthropogenic climate change can be projected using data from climate models, but directly applying these meteorological variables to long-term planning and adaptive management activities may be difficult for decision makers. Analog mapping, in contrast, creates more intuitive assessments of changing fire regimes that also recognize the complex, multivariate, and multi-scalar nature of ecosystems. Here, we use data from 20 downscaled climate models under two climate forcing scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), to identify and map future climate-fire analogs for 655 protected areas in the conterminous U.S. based on annual temperature, cumulative precipitation amount and seasonality, and fire regime potentials derived from a simple process-based fire frequency model. Patterns of analogs were heavily influenced by gradients in latitude and topography, with longer time frames (end-of-century conditions) and the more extreme climate forcing scenario resulting in greater analog distances and more ensemble entropy (i.e., less consensus among climate models regarding the closest analog for a given management unit). Finer scale analyses for three protected areas (Yellowstone and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks, White Mountain National Forest) illustrate how climate-fire analog mapping can improve insight into the types of ecosystem responses that might occur under similar management conditions. Federally protected areas such as national parks, forests, and wildlife refuges have long served as reference sites for the study of fire regimes, a role that is likely to continue because many of these units are managed to allow at least some ecosystem processes to operate independently. The results suggest that analog mapping approaches are well-suited as part of qualitative assessments within climate- and fire-aware adaptive management processes. The use of analogs to depict relatable, real-world depictions of possible ecosystem changes in a given place, can help managers make more strategic choices about when and where to resist, accept, or direct climate change-driven ecological change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"2 ","pages":"Article 100007"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950138524000032/pdfft?md5=ecce24c16c11521892e1d8e82cce6a5e&pid=1-s2.0-S2950138524000032-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140350781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Accelerated human-induced extinction crisis in the world's freshwater mammals","authors":"Erik Joaquín Torres-Romero ,&nbsp;Jason T. Fisher ,&nbsp;Vincent Nijman ,&nbsp;Fengzhi He ,&nbsp;Timothy M. Eppley","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2024.100006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecadv.2024.100006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Human activities have significantly impacted natural habitats and wildlife worldwide, particularly emphasizing repercussions for freshwater habitats and associated species. These negative impacts on freshwater fish are well known, but for mammal species that regularly use and dependend on freshwater systems, there is an incomplete understanding. Here, we assessed the status of freshwater and semi-aquatic mammal species inhabiting and dependent on freshwater ecosystems (hereafter referred to as freshwater mammals) and evaluated the impact of human activities on species richness both globally and by biogeographical regions. We used structural equation modeling and simultaneous autoregressive models to assess the direct and indirect effects of seven anthropogenic-related variables on overall freshwater mammal richness. Specifically, we examined the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on the richness of threatened and non-threatened species, as well as species with decreasing and stable/increasing populations. Forty-three percent of all freshwater mammal species are classified as globally threatened by the IUCN Red List, with 50% experiencing population declines. Furthermore, 48% are affected by domestic or international trade, while 75% face threats from geographically expanding human activities. Aridity, pesticide pollution, human footprint, and croplands had the strongest negative effects on freshwater mammal richness. In contrast, the coverage of freshwater habitats (FWs), Indigenous Peoples' lands (IPLs), and protected areas (PAs) helped to sustain freshwater mammal species globally, with an even stronger positive effect at individual biogeographical regions. We conclude that FWs, IPLs, and PAs play a critical role in the conservation of freshwater mammal species, helping safeguard these species from extinction, however, freshwater ecosystems are seldom the focal point of conservation management strategies. The ongoing adverse anthropogenic impacts on these natural habitats present a potentially catastrophic and irreversible threat to global freshwater environments and the species, including humans, reliant upon them. We strongly advocate for the implementation of more robust national and international policy frameworks that endorse alternative and sustainable livelihoods. Such frameworks can play a crucial role in alleviating anthropogenic pressures, thereby aiding in the mitigation of the extinction risk faced by these vital ecosystems and the world's freshwater mammal species.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"2 ","pages":"Article 100006"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950138524000020/pdfft?md5=bdfc131ed4ef2f1f601a2aff45dea029&pid=1-s2.0-S2950138524000020-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139936004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effect of methane mitigation on global temperature under a permafrost feedback","authors":"Hannah Bäck ,&nbsp;Riley May ,&nbsp;Divya Sree Naidu ,&nbsp;Steffen Eikenberry","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2024.100005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecadv.2024.100005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Earth systems may fall into an undesirable system state if 1.5<!--> <!-->°C of warming is exceeded. Carbon release from substantial permafrost stocks vulnerable to near-term warming represents a positive climate feedback that may increase the risk of 1.5<!--> <!-->°C warming or greater. Methane (CH₄) is a short-lived but powerful greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 28.5 times that of carbon dioxide (CO₂) over a 100 year time span. Because permafrost thaw in the coming centuries is partly determined by the warming in the 21st century, rapid reductions in methane emissions early in the 21st century could have far reaching effects. We use a reduced complexity carbon cycle model and a permafrost feedback module to explore the possibility that accelerating reductions in methane emissions could help avoid long-term warming by limiting permafrost melt. We simulate three extended Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 6) through the year 2300 and impose methane mitigation strategies where we reduce CH₄ emissions by 1%, 5% or 10% annually until the long-term scenario emission level is reached. We find that accelerated rates of methane mitigation do not sufficiently alter the global temperature anomaly to prevent or delay a permafrost feedback, nor do they result in meaningful long term reductions in temperatures. We find that the long-term magnitude of methane mitigation (i.e., long-term emission level) and not the rate of reduction, corresponds to long-term temperature change. Further study of methane-climate dynamics is necessary to fully resolve this question.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"2 ","pages":"Article 100005"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950138524000019/pdfft?md5=b428078190dd94df2dc822fb25f0eb5a&pid=1-s2.0-S2950138524000019-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139653728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bringing satellites down to Earth: Six steps to more ethical remote sensing","authors":"Mia M. Bennett ,&nbsp;Colin J. Gleason ,&nbsp;Beth Tellman ,&nbsp;Luis F. Alvarez Leon ,&nbsp;Hannah K. Friedrich ,&nbsp;Ufuoma Ovienmhada ,&nbsp;Adam J. Mathews","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2023.100003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecadv.2023.100003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To shed light on the politics of remote sensing, a technique often regarded as objective and neutral, the subfield of critical remote sensing has emerged in the social sciences. This perspective translates its key ideas into an actionable framework that offers suggestions for how to transform remote sensing to better engage and empower people and places typically studied at a distance. First, we encourage remote sensing scientists and practitioners to weigh the consequences of exposing inaccessible or off-limits places, incorporate local knowledge and values into research design, methods, and applications, and share skills and data with stakeholders who wish to learn and use remote sensing for their own objectives. Second, we offer suggestions for teaching critical remote sensing and making research accessible and replicable. Third, we stress the importance of acknowledging that despite being conducted from afar, remote sensing can still affect the people and places it observes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"2 ","pages":"Article 100003"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950138523000037/pdfft?md5=8757521167331956f560dc3d77de912a&pid=1-s2.0-S2950138523000037-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139038569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the past and future dynamics of the Asian summer monsoon: Insights from palaeomonsoon synthesis and CMIP6 data","authors":"Mayank Shekhar ,&nbsp;Aka Sharma ,&nbsp;Pushpendra Pandey ,&nbsp;Anupam Sharma ,&nbsp;A.P. Dimri","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2023.100004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecadv.2023.100004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Asian summer monsoon is one of the active synoptic scale weather phenomena, and has significant socioeconomic implications. A vast population relies on the associated precipitation, mostly dominating the agricultural practices of the region. Therefore, it is essential to assess past behavior to understand the present, including future projections. We used palaeomonsoon precipitation synthesis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data to interactively show the dynamics and changes in the summer monsoon for the Asian region throughout the past millennium behavior to understand the present and future projections. In this study, we precisely analyzed and quantified the dynamics of summer precipitation variation throughout the last millennium (LM; 850–1849 CE) at an annual resolution, in which the major climatic events were the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; 900–1300 CE) and Little Ice Age (LIA; 1500–1850 CE). We also analyzed the historical or base climate (HC; 1850–2014 CE) and future monsoons (FM; 2015–2100 CE) using CMIP6 SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, to project the summer monsoon for Asia and the Indian subcontinent. The findings are encouraging, showing slightly increased precipitation during the MCA and low precipitation during the LIA in Asia. Moreover, the average summer monsoon daily rainfall remained 6.398 ± 0.634 and 6.310 ± 0.649 mm/d for the MCA and LIA, respectively, indicating a relatively slight variation in the summer monsoon precipitation during these climatic phases. In addition, for the twenty-first century, the CIMP6 projection shows increased summer monsoon precipitation over Asia, particularly in the northeast region. Further, the CMIP6 projections for SSP2–4.5 shows 6.457 ± 0.658 mm/d, and for SSP5–8.5 is 6.686 ± 0.837 mm/d for the twenty-first century. Furthermore, the results of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) analysis suggest that the monsoon system may become more intense in some regions, whereas other regions may experience reduced precipitation in the Asia-Pacific region, with a regionally heterogeneous rise in heavy rainfall and high moisture throughout most of Asia. Orography, evaporation, moisture content, and circulation all affect the severity of precipitation in addition to fine-scale surface moisture feedback. The findings show that it is essential to consider both the past and the future to accurately estimate local and regional-scale susceptibility to climate change. Moreover, the synthesis of past data and analysis of future projections of the monsoon will provide a basis for reducing the unpredictability of future climate models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"2 ","pages":"Article 100004"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950138523000049/pdfft?md5=4afd151f7e941ecfe363c3eb091bcebd&pid=1-s2.0-S2950138523000049-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139038570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Clarifying confusions over carbon conclusions: antecedent soil carbon drives gains realised following intervention","authors":"Albert Muleke ,&nbsp;Matthew Tom Harrison ,&nbsp;Rowan Eisner ,&nbsp;Maria Yanotti ,&nbsp;Peter de Voil ,&nbsp;Shah Fahad ,&nbsp;Wang Fei ,&nbsp;Puyu Feng ,&nbsp;Carla Ferreira ,&nbsp;Daniel Forster ,&nbsp;Xionghui Gao ,&nbsp;Ke Liu ,&nbsp;Jianguo Man ,&nbsp;Lixiao Nie ,&nbsp;Jiangwen Nie ,&nbsp;Zhiming Qi ,&nbsp;Narasinha Shurpali ,&nbsp;Weilu Wang ,&nbsp;Rui Yang ,&nbsp;Xiaogang Yin ,&nbsp;Jin Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2023.100001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecadv.2023.100001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Carbon removals associated with incremental gains in soil organic carbon (SOC) at scale have enormous potential to mitigate global warming, yet confusion over contexts that elicit SOC accrual abound. Here, we examine how bespoke interventions (through irrigation, fertiliser, crop type and rotations), antecedent SOC levels and soil type impact on long-term SOC accrual and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using a whole farm systems modelling approach informed using participatory research, we discovered an inverse relationship between antecedent SOC stocks and SOC gains realised following intervention, with greater initial SOC levels resulting in lower <em>ex poste</em> change in SOC. We found that SOC accrual was greatest for clays and least for sands, although changes in SOC in sandy loam soils were also low. <em>Diversified</em> whole farm adaptations – implemented through inclusion of grain legumes within wheat/canola crop rotations – were more conducive to improvement in SOC stocks, followed by <em>Intensified</em> systems (implemented through greater rates of irrigation, farm areas under irrigation, nitrogen fertiliser and inclusion of rice and maize in crop rotations). Adaptations that <em>Simplified</em> farm systems by reducing irrigation and fertiliser use resulted in the lowest SOC accrual. In most cases, long-term SOC stocks fell when SOC at the outset was greater than 4–5%, regardless of intervention made, soil or crop type, crop rotation, production system or climate. We contend that (1) management interventions primarily impacted SOC in the soil surface (0–30 cm) and had <em>de minimus</em> impact on deep SOC stocks (30–100 cm), (2) crop rotations including wheat, canola and faba beans were more conducive to improvement in SOC stocks, (3) scenarios with high <em>status quo</em> SOC had little impact on crop productivity, and not necessarily the lowest GHG emissions intensity, (4) productivity and GHG emissions intensity were largely a function of the quantum of nitrogenous fertiliser added, rather than SOC stocks, and (5) aspirations for improving SOC are likely to be futile if antecedent SOC stocks are already high (4–5 %). We conclude that potential for improving SOC stocks exists in contexts where antecedent stocks are low (&lt;1%), which may include regions with land degradation, chronic erosion and/or other constraints to vegetative ground cover that could be sustainably and consistently alleviated.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"1 ","pages":"Article 100001"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49738258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Newly-claimed seascapes: Options for repurposing inundated areas","authors":"Faye R. White ,&nbsp;Stephen C. Urlich ,&nbsp;Hamish G. Rennie","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2023.100002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecadv.2023.100002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Sea-level rise is unstoppable. Communities worldwide are facing difficult choices in responding to changing coastlines and estuaries. Understandably, there is little attention on the potential for repurposing inundated areas because retreat and adaptation take precedence. Repurposing may be infeasible for newly-claimed seascapes in exposed and high energy coasts. Nevertheless, for sheltered coastal areas, shallow estuaries and harbours, there may be potential for repurposing some areas for aquaculture, fisheries, wetlands, and/or blue carbon. For example, abandoned and decontaminated structures may provide fish nursery habitat as artificial reefs. Here, we present the results of a systematic literature review of potential options, along with identified benefits and implementation barriers. Our purpose is not to examine the feasibility of such options because these will be place- and context-specific; rather, we explore whether the solution space can be extended beyond the point of impact. We suggest that repurposing could be added to the PARA management framework.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"1 ","pages":"Article 100002"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49762577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}