Mathematical biosciences最新文献

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Effect of demographic and seasonal variability on an influenza epidemic in a metapopulation model. 人口统计学和季节变化对亚人口模型中流感流行的影响。

Mathematical biosciences Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109465

Dan Li, Ying Liu, Longxing Qi

{"title":"Effect of demographic and seasonal variability on an influenza epidemic in a metapopulation model.","authors":"Dan Li, Ying Liu, Longxing Qi","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109465","url":null,"abstract":"Meteorological factors such as temperature and humidity significantly affect the transmission efficiency of influenza viruses in temperate regions. School-aged children aged 5 to 14 years are more susceptible to influenza A virus infection than other age groups. To reveal the impact of seasonal fluctuations in meteorological factors on the spread of influenza and the role of school-age children in disease transmission, we first develop a metapopulation ordinary differential equation model with the seasonal variation of infection probability upon contacting an infectious individual. The basic reproduction number R0 is obtained. To incorporate demographic variability, a time-nonhomogeneous Markov chain model is reformulated on the basis of the deterministic model. An analytic estimate for the probability of a disease outbreak, as well as an explicit expression for the mean(variance) of the disease extinction time in the absence of an outbreak, is derived. Finally, in the case where the population is divided into two subgroups based on age: school-age children aged 5 to 14 years and individuals of other age groups, our model is applied to study seasonal outbreaks of influenza A viruses in temperate regions. Numerical simulations suggest that: (i) the probability of a disease outbreak depends on the number of reported and unreported infections introduced for the first time, the timing of introduction, and their age group; (ii) the impact of demographic stochasticity on the final size and time until extinction after a disease outbreak depends mainly on the timing of influenza virus introduction; (iii) regardless of the season in which an unreported infected individual is introduced, timely treatment of infected school-age children can help reduce the likelihood of disease outbreaks and lower the mean final size after an outbreak.","PeriodicalId":94129,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical biosciences","volume":" ","pages":"109465"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144188737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effects of fish-human transmission and different life stages of fish on Clonorchiasis: A novel mathematical model. 鱼-人传播和鱼的不同生命阶段对克隆氏病的影响：新型数学模型

Mathematical biosciences Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109209

Wei Wang, Xiaohui Huang, Hao Wang

{"title":"Effects of fish-human transmission and different life stages of fish on Clonorchiasis: A novel mathematical model.","authors":"Wei Wang, Xiaohui Huang, Hao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109209","url":null,"abstract":"Clonorchiasis is a zoonotic disease mainly caused by eating raw fish and shrimp, and there is no vaccine to prevent it. More than 30 million people are infected worldwide, of which China alone accounts for about half, and is one of the countries most seriously affected by Clonorchiasis. In this work, we formulate a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model to discuss the biological attributes of fish within authentic ecosystems and the complex lifecycle of Clonorchis sinensis. This model includes larval fish, adult fish, infected fish, humans, and cercariae. We derive the basic reproduction number and perform a rigorous stability analysis of the proposed model. Numerically, we use data from 2016 to 2021 in Guangxi, China, to discuss outbreaks of Clonorchiasis and obtain the basic reproduction number R0=1.4764. The fitted curve appropriately reflects the overall trend and replicates a low peak in the case number of Clonorchiasis. By reducing the release rate of cercariae in 2018, the fitted values of Clonorchiasis cases dropped rapidly and almost disappeared. If we decrease the transmission rate from infected fish to humans, Clonorchiasis can be controlled. Our studies also suggest that strengthening publicity education and cleaning water quality can effectively control the transmission of Clonorchiasis in Guangxi, China.","PeriodicalId":94129,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical biosciences","volume":" ","pages":"109209"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140961248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mathematical modeling of brain metastases growth and response to therapies: A review. 脑转移瘤生长和对疗法反应的数学建模：综述。

Mathematical biosciences Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109207

B. Ocaña-Tienda, Víctor M. Pérez-García

引用次数: 0