Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response最新文献

{"title":"An Overview of the Impact of Digital Transformation on the Risk-taking of Commercial Banks","authors":"An-qi Huang, Da-wei Tan","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v14i2.478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v14i2.478","url":null,"abstract":"The digital transformation of commercial banks has been a general trend, and the new services brought by this new technology are becoming increasingly popular among customers and banks. For enabling customers to enjoy better service and banks to operate more efficiently and stably, the impact of digital transformation on the risk-taking of commercial banks has therefore attracted attention. By combing domestic and foreign research literature from 2016 to 2023, this paper respectively explores the significance, type and development status of the digital transformation of commercial banks, commercial banks' risk-taking and corresponding influencing factors, as well as impacts of digital transformation on the risk-taking. Conclusively, although there is no precise and unified conclusion on the impact of digital transformation on commercial banks' risk-taking, it does have the effect of reducing risk-taking under certain conditions. Hence, commercial banks need to analyze specific problems and use good strategies to overcome difficulties, and finally reach the outcome of reducing risk-taking through digital transformation.","PeriodicalId":511664,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response","volume":" 16","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141671502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"SARIMA Model-Based Monte Carlo Simulation of Option Contract Design for Maize Seasonal Heavy Precipitation in Shenyang","authors":"Cheng-yi Pu, Pei-huan Li, Lin-qiu Gu, Xiao-jun Pan","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v14i2.475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v14i2.475","url":null,"abstract":"Agricultural production is highly dependent on weather conditions such as temperature, light, water and heat. The huge loss caused by extreme disaster weather makes the global insurance and reinsurance market overwhelmed, and seriously affects the enthusiasm of agricultural investment and the development of agricultural economy. With unique topography and vast territory, China is vulnerable to complex and diverse climate disasters. In recent years, the annual average economic loss caused by extreme weather disasters has reached about 200-300 billion yuan, among which floods caused by extreme heavy rainfall are the main agricultural disasters in China. In order to enhance the \"farmer - insurance company - government\" interest association to resist the risk of flood disaster caused by extreme heavy rainfall, financial hedging derivatives of weather disaster risk have gradually become a new hedging tool besides traditional insurance and reinsurance. This paper takes Shenyang, the main grain producing area in northeast China, as the sample of the study area, and uses the SARIMA model to obtain the distribution characteristics of seasonal rainfall time series. Different seasonal rainfall index option products (call option and put option contracts) are designed respectively, and the final option pricing is obtained by Monte Carlo stochastic simulation. The seasonal rainfall call option and put option contracts have opened up a new hedging model of agricultural extreme weather catastrophe outside the insurance and reinsurance market, which has enriched the varieties of weather financial derivatives market in China, reduced the severe impact of extreme weather disasters on agriculture, and enhanced the ability of agricultural stakeholders to resist the risk of extreme weather disasters.","PeriodicalId":511664,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response","volume":" 37","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141680619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Farmer Households in Flood and Earthquake Prone Areas Based on Multidimensional Information Diffusion Model","authors":"Xiao-jun Pan, Xi Zhang, Pei-huan Li, Cheng-yi Pu","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v14i2.474","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v14i2.474","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, the global practice of regional natural disaster reduction and comprehensive risk prevention has promoted the integration of multiple disciplines, and the theory and technology of comprehensive risk assessment for multiple natural disaster chains urgently need innovation. This article is based on multiple natural disaster chain scenarios and sets secondary indicators for multiple influencing factors based on the first level indicators composed of basic risk factors such as hazard factors, vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies, and disaster prevention and reduction capabilities. By using multidimensional information diffusion technology, multiple hazard factor hazard combination factors, vulnerability combination factors of disaster bearing bodies, and comprehensive disaster prevention and reduction capability combination factors reflecting various natural disaster scenarios are constructed, A household comprehensive risk assessment index system for multi-dimensional information diffusion assessment of natural disaster comprehensive risk was designed by quantifying risk factors such as the intensity of comprehensive disaster causing factors, vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies, and comprehensive disaster prevention and reduction capabilities in disaster scenarios. This paper expands the traditional information diffusion comprehensive risk assessment model, makes up for the lack of information on geographical units, establishes a multi impact factor multi dimension natural disaster risk comprehensive assessment model for multi risk factors of complex disaster scenarios with small samples, obtains the theoretical value of multi-dimensional information Diffusion model comprehensive risk assessment for complex disaster scenarios, breaks through the sample size limit of natural disaster risks, and makes up for the lack of information on small samples of small probability events, Improved the reliability and accuracy of comprehensive risk assessment for multiple natural disaster chains. Then, take the disaster scenario formed by the comprehensive risk of earthquake and flood in a place in the upper reaches of the Fujiang River basin as the analysis sample, calculate the comprehensive risk assessment value of flood and earthquake damage in the study area's micro samples (rural households in villages and towns). By comparison, it is found that the comprehensive risk value assessed by the multi-dimensional information Diffusion model has good reliability and high accuracy, which is significantly better than the traditional Kriging interpolation method and geographical weighted regression method. This article provides a comprehensive risk assessment of natural disasters at the micro household level, which can better reflect the diversity and regionality of risks, help clarify the hidden risks of rural natural disasters, and provide scientific basis for government emergency management decision-making.","PeriodicalId":511664,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response","volume":"229 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141681465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Effects of External Debt on the Economic Growth of India during Various Crisis Periods: A Markov- Switching GARCH Model Approach","authors":"Raktim Ghosh, Biswajit Paul, B. Bagchi, Priyajit Kumar Ghosh","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v13i4.412","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v13i4.412","url":null,"abstract":"This article seeks to investigate the impact of the volatility of the external debt burden on the economic growth of India. The MS (Markov - Switching) - GARCH model is the cornerstone in studying the effects of external debt on the economic growth that is simulated herein. This article applies a MS - GARCH model that allows not only unobserved variables within an observed model but also uses a robust algorithm to reach strong optimization (convergence) through iteration in a dynamic system in the estimation procedure. This article considers the period from Q2 2004 to Q4 2022 with 74 sample observations. Considering various crises like the global financial crisis, the Euro crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic that occurred during the study period, the results identify two regimes based on conditional volatility. One is the global financial recession period (regime-1) and another is the post-global financial recession period (regime-2). The findings show that the conditional volatility as well as the variance in the volatility of economic growth due to the external debt of India is much stronger in the global financial recession period (regime-1) than in the post-global financial recession period (regime-2). It implies that the Euro crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic are having less impact on external debts in India. The transition matrix indicates the greater probability of the economic growth rate settling down in regime 2 when it is already in regime 2, as it is considered to be a much calmer period. Finally, the results of the stable probabilities suggest that the economic growth rate of India is much more stable in regime 2 than in regime 1. This article puts forward relevant policy implications for coming out from the debt overhang scenario in India.","PeriodicalId":511664,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response","volume":"10 25","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139394077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating Resilience into Risk Matrices: A Practical Approach to Risk Assessment with Empirical Analysis","authors":"Ali Vaezi, Samantha Jones, Ali Asgary","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v13i4.411","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v13i4.411","url":null,"abstract":"The changing and intensifying landscape of global, national, and local disaster risks, driven by socio-political, environmental, and technological shifts, underscores the critical need for risk assessment by international agencies and governments. The Risk Matrix, introduced in 1995, has been widely used for risk assessment in different contexts, lauded for its simplicity and effectiveness. This model relies on the core risk components of consequence and likelihood, making it a favored tool for risk managers. To enhance the precision of risk assessment, various adaptations and extensions of the risk matrix have emerged; while some indirectly address resilience aspects, none explicitly integrate resilience into the matrix. This paper explores the risk matrix and its extensions, advocating for the inclusion of resilience in risk assessment. It introduces an empirical approach to quantify resilience, through a survey targeting small and medium-sized businesses in Southern Ontario, Canada. By developing two types of risk matrices—one with resilience considerations and one without—our work demonstrates how resilience alters risk prioritization, highlighting the importance of preparedness. This research underscores the pivotal role of resilience in risk assessment and urges its explicit integration into risk matrices to enhance accuracy and efficacy. Through practical examples and empirical data, the paper builds a compelling case for the central role of resilience in modern risk assessment practices.","PeriodicalId":511664,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response","volume":"33 3‐4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139394458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Organizational Culture and Safety: Taking the Hungarian Electricity Industry as An Example","authors":"Fanni Vasvári, Márta Juhász, K. Krasz","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v13i4.415","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v13i4.415","url":null,"abstract":"Introduction: This study focuses on one of the largest Hungarian companies with a century-long history in the electricity supply business. It aims at examining the relationship between leadership style and safety-awareness in the perceptions of leaders and subordinates. Method: Middle-level managers (N=163) completed the MLQ. Subordinates (N=650) completed the MLQ and expanded with specific subscales, along which employees judged the leadership style of their managers. We relied on some approaches and on analysis of the interviews with participants. To measure safety-awareness, we use 3 different scales. Results: Based on the results, in the subordinates’ sample, all scales of Transformational leadership positively significantly correlated with all component of safety-awareness, while all scales of Transactional leadership negatively significantly correlated with every component of safety-awareness. In the managers’ sample, both the Transformational and Transactional leadership showed a significant positive correlation with all component of safety-awareness except for the Laissez-Faire leadership, where a negative significant relationship was found. Conclusions: In case of subordinates, safety-awareness is associated with their leader’s transformational leadership. From the perspective of managers, it appears that a basic level of safety-awareness is associated to Transactional leadership traits, while a higher level of safety-awareness requires a Transformational leadership.","PeriodicalId":511664,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139395139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Study on the Relationship between Strong Earthquake and Abnormality of Space Static Electricity with Sample","authors":"Chong-fu Huang, Tao Chen, Lei Li","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v13i4.410","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v13i4.410","url":null,"abstract":"It has been observed that, before some strong earthquakes occur, the space static electricity near the ground is abnormal, which might be caused by a large amount of radioactive gas released from the Earth's crust. In this paper, the information diffusion technology for optimally processing small samples is used to analyze 30 cases, and the relationship between magnitude and parameters such as abnormality of space static electricity is constructed. Each case is composed of four observation values: abnormality e, epicenter distance d, impending time t and magnitude m. Using the causal relationship constructed in this paper, the magnitude m of an impending earthquake could be approximately inferred from abnormality e. According to the progress of locking the epicenter and the passage of time, the predicted magnitude could be adjusted in a timely manner. The research results provided in this paper do not eliminate the uncertainty of earthquake occurrence, so that the study is a work of analyzing seismic dynamic risk.Integrating the monitoring information from seismic stations and the physical field information in the air will promote impending earthquake prediction, which is a worldwide scientific challenge.","PeriodicalId":511664,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response","volume":"53 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139395067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on Factors Influencing the Demand of Chinese Commercial Health Insurance Caused by COVID-19","authors":"Bo-ya Shi, Pei-huan Li, Cun-wen Tao, Cheng-yi Pu","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v13i4.414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v13i4.414","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 enhanced the need for commercial health insurance to address the sudden and overwhelming healthcare costs faced by families. This also led to an increase in the demand for health insurance services requiring insurance companies to innovate and develop suitable services. However, in the context of China, despite the huge potential for growth, health insurance market faces numerous challenges such as inadequate availability of tailored services, educational issues, income limitations, and emphasis on social insurance. To examine the issues and consider areas for improvements, this research investigated the impacts and effects of commercial health insurance from a macro perspective and considered potential recommendations to enhance the effective demand. This paper performed an empirical investigation by using the short panel data for regression analysis. The data was collected over ten years (2010 to 2019) involving 31 provinces in China to establish a fixed effect model. It employed FE and FGLS method to compare and analyze the impact of 9 factors while the health insurance premium was set as the dependent variable. Results showed that domestic economic development led to increasing residents' wealth and consumption levels has increased, including healthcare investments. Elevating the awareness of people through education can promote the development of the commercial health insurance demand, but the influence of urbanization level and the aging of the population remain to be demonstrated.","PeriodicalId":511664,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response","volume":"7 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139395457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Credit Risk Evaluation of Real Estate Industry Based on GA-GARCH-KMV Model","authors":"Chun-xiao Wang, Kai Xu","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v13i4.413","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v13i4.413","url":null,"abstract":"Credit risk assessment in the real estate industry has garnered significant attention from government regulators, investors, and business scholars. However, the evaluation of credit risk in this sector poses numerous challenges, primarily due to the intricate interplay of economic cycles and political landscapes. In this study, we propose a novel method that leverages the GARCH(1,1) model in conjunction with the Genetic Algorithm (GA) to enhance the KMV model's performance. By refining the default point and equity value volatility in the KMV model, our approach offers more accurate credit risk evaluations in the real estate industry. Empirical results demonstrate the superior accuracy of our improved KMV model, providing valuable insights for early credit risk warning in the real estate sector.","PeriodicalId":511664,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response","volume":" 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139392153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon Trading Market and Green Innovation of Enterprises—Based on the Triple Difference Model","authors":"Feng-hua Wu","doi":"10.54560/jracr.v13i4.416","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54560/jracr.v13i4.416","url":null,"abstract":"This article takes Chinese manufacturing listed companies from 2000 to 2020 as the research object, based on enterprise green patent data, and adopts a double difference method to study the effect of carbon trading pilot policies, a quasi-natural experiment, on enterprise innovation. Research has found that: (1) The carbon trading pilot policy has significantly promoted green innovation in enterprises and increased their technological innovation efforts. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests and endogeneity treatments, including placebo testing, excluding the implementation of innovative city pilot policies, and interference from economic crises. (2) Mechanism testing has found that carbon trading pilot policies can significantly promote green innovation in enterprises by strengthening the effectiveness of environmental regulations and improving the cash flow situation of enterprises. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the concentration of technology and the degree of equity dispersion in enterprises can affect the effectiveness of innovation. In response to the above conclusions, this article proposes suggestions for improving the carbon trading system, exploring multidimensional paths for carbon trading pilot projects to promote enterprise innovation, and improving policy adaptability, flexibility, and execution intensity. The research in this article provides policy inspiration for further improving the carbon trading market, enhancing the effectiveness of the carbon trading system, and fully leveraging the carbon market to promote green innovation for enterprises and achieve low-carbon development. It has reference significance for the construction and improvement of the national carbon market and promotes the improvement of national energy conservation and emission reduction policy planning.","PeriodicalId":511664,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response","volume":"65 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139395649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}