International Trade, Politics and Development最新文献

{"title":"The asymmetric effect of fiscal deficits on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria: evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL)","authors":"A. Adedokun, Isiaka Ayodeji Adeniyi, C. Olaniyi","doi":"10.1108/itpd-02-2024-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/itpd-02-2024-0005","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe paper examines the asymmetric effects of fiscal deficits on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria, which include economic growth, exchange rates and inflation. The existing works of literature are premised on symmetry assumptions with dichotomous findings. In such situations, they suggest using a nonlinear approach as an alternative to checkmate the findings premised on linearity. This is critical, considering the perpetual fiscal deficit trends of Nigeria, which are considered a major economic problem in the country.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimator using secondary data collected from the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).FindingsThe results show that in the short run, both positive and negative shocks to the fiscal deficit have no effect on Nigeria's economic growth. The same is found on the negative shocks in the long run. However, positive shocks to the fiscal deficit have a long-run positive impact on economic growth. It is further revealed that, in the short run, positive shocks as well as negative shocks to fiscal deficits are positively related to the inflation rate. More so, long-run estimates show that positive shocks to the fiscal deficit have negative impacts on inflation, while negative shocks to the fiscal deficit have positive impacts on inflation.Originality/valueThis study introduces novelties to the understanding of the relationship between fiscal deficits and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. It accounts for asymmetric and nonlinear features that are more aligned with the socioeconomic realities of real-world phenomena. This study also offers more insightful policy perspectives to enhance the fiscal profile of the country.","PeriodicalId":511190,"journal":{"name":"International Trade, Politics and Development","volume":"2 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141807487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Globalization, fractionalized governments and expansionary fiscal policy","authors":"Wonjae Hwang, Hoon Lee, Sang-Hwan Lee","doi":"10.1108/itpd-05-2024-0023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/itpd-05-2024-0023","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeAs a response to challenges that globalization poses, governments often utilize an expansionary fiscal policy, a mix of increased compensation spending and capital tax cuts. To account for these policy measures that are consistent with neither the compensation nor the efficiency hypothesis, this study examines government fractionalization as the key conditional factor.Design/methodology/approachWe test our hypothesis with a country-year data covering 24 OECD countries from 1980 to 2011. To examine how a single country juggles compensation spending and capital taxation policies jointly, we employ a research strategy that classifies governments into four categories based on their implementation of the two policies and examine the link between imports and fiscal policy choices conditioned on government fractionalization.FindingsThis study shows that highly fractionalized governments are more likely to implement an expansionary fiscal policy than marginally fractionalized governments as a policy response to economic globalization and import shock.Social implicationsOur findings imply that fractionalized governments are likely to face budget deficits and debt crises, as the expansionary fiscal policy persists over time.Originality/valueBy examining government fractionalization as one of the critical factors that constrain the fiscal policy choice, this study enhances our understanding of the relationship between economic globalization and compensation or efficiency policies. The arguments and findings in this study explain why governments utilize the seeming incompatible policy preferences over increased compensation spending and reduced capital tax burdens as a response to globalization, potentially subsuming both hypotheses.","PeriodicalId":511190,"journal":{"name":"International Trade, Politics and Development","volume":" 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141676510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Justification of the twin deficit hypothesis in Bangladesh","authors":"Mahfuza Maliha Lubna, Sanjoy Kumar Saha","doi":"10.1108/itpd-04-2023-0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/itpd-04-2023-0009","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeIn light of Bangladesh’s economy, the goal of this study is to examine the “Twin Deficit Hypothesis (TDH),” which refers to a link between the budget deficit and the current account deficit. This study used yearly time series data from 1980 to 2020 to investigate the phenomena.Design/methodology/approachA multivariate autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model has been presented for empirical investigation, with the ARDL bound test investigating the co-integration between the inadequacies. As some of the variables in the bound test lack co-integration, the study adds a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model later on.FindingsWith evidence of the result, the study supports the validation of twin deficit hypothesis in Bangladesh economy since both current account deficit and fiscal deficit affects each other significantly whereas Granger causality test confirms that fiscal deficit causes current account deficit but not the other way around.Practical implicationsThe government should maintain a restrictive monetary policy in order to stabilize the current account deficit.Originality/valueThe novelty of this study is the incorporation of inflation, real exchange rate and GDP per capital to TDH that together form the basis for a macroeconomic snapshot of the economy.","PeriodicalId":511190,"journal":{"name":"International Trade, Politics and Development","volume":"10 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141266660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Domestic macroeconomic sources of the USA–China trade conflict","authors":"James Caporaso","doi":"10.1108/itpd-11-2023-0035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/itpd-11-2023-0035","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeTrade relations between China and the USA have been marked by conflict, especially since China’s membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). These conflicts have been analyzed from a variety of perspectives, including the loss of jobs in the USA due to Chinese imports, competition in high technology sectors and the balance of trade. Conceptual frameworks have employed models of domestic differences as well as models of international power distribution. Among domestic differences examined are the existence of state-owned enterprises in China compared to the domination of the USA economy by private firms, the large role of the Communist Party in China and the influence of labor and environmental and labor groups in the USA. Power distribution theories focus on the systemic effects of the distribution of power on trade openness and on the pattern of intra-bloc versus between-bloc trade. This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic policy factors in China and the USA, in particular, the role of national patterns of savings, investment and consumption (both private and government). The paper concludes that insofar as the balance of trade is an important component of the trade conflict, domestic macroeconomic factors continue to be important. The resolution of the conflict will have to take into account the respective macroeconomic policies of China and the USA.Design/methodology/approachThe design is an analytic case study of US–China trade relations with a particular focus on the balance of trade. The conceptual framework employed involves an analysis of macroeconomic policy categories, especially the overall pattern of savings (household, firm and government), investment and consumption. Process tracing over time since China's membership in the WTO is carried out with an eye toward the relationship between the balance of trade and macroeconomic policy.FindingsThe main findings are that there is a strong relation between the respective macroeconomic policies of the USA and China and their trade relations. The domestic political economy of the USA encourages consumption and a low rate of savings. The opposite is true of China where household income is low by design and national savings are high. China depends on the USA to consume what is not consumed domestically. The USA depends on Chinese imports for additional consumption encouraged by its low rate of savings. The two economies are locked in a mutual dependence.Research limitations/implicationsKey research implications are that there should be more focus on domestic macroeconomic policies since these are the root causes of the trade imbalance. This is not to say that trade frictions centering on jobs, subsidies and competition in high technology are unimportant. However, without the resolution of differences in the management of macroeconomic policies, trade conflicts between the USA and China will continue.Practical implicationsPractical implications are huge, in some ways mu","PeriodicalId":511190,"journal":{"name":"International Trade, Politics and Development","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140368209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation-poverty causal nexus in sub-Saharan African countries: an asymmetric panel causality approach","authors":"C. Olaniyi, N. Odhiambo","doi":"10.1108/itpd-08-2023-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/itpd-08-2023-0024","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis study examines the roles of cross-sectional dependence, asymmetric structure and country-to-country policy variations in the inflation-poverty reduction causal nexus in selected sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1981 to 2019.Design/methodology/approachTo account for cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity and policy variations across countries in the inflation-poverty reduction causal nexus, this study uses robust Hatemi-J data decomposition procedures and a battery of second-generation techniques. These techniques include cross-sectional dependency tests, panel unit root tests, slope homogeneity tests and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger non-causality approach.FindingsUnlike existing studies, the panel and country-specific findings exhibit several dimensions of asymmetric causality in the inflation-poverty nexus. Positive inflationary shocks Granger-causes poverty reduction through investment and employment opportunities that benefit the impoverished in SSA. These findings align with country-specific analyses of Botswana, Cameroon, Gabon, Mauritania, South Africa and Togo. Also, a decline in poverty causes inflation to increase in the Congo Republic, Madagascar, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo. All panel and country-specific analyses reveal at least one dimension of asymmetric causality or another.Practical implicationsAll stakeholders and policymakers must pay adequate attention to issues of asymmetric structures, nonlinearities and country-to-country policy variations to address country-specific issues and the socioeconomic problems in the probable causal nexus between the high incidence of extreme poverty and double-digit inflation rates in most SSA countries.Originality/valueStudies on the inflation-poverty nexus are not uncommon in economic literature. Most existing studies focus on inflation’s effect on poverty. Existing studies that examine the inflation-poverty causal relationship covertly assume no asymmetric structure and nonlinearity. Also, the issues of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity are unexplored in the causal link in existing studies. All panel studies covertly impose homogeneous policies on countries in the causality. This study relaxes this supposition by allowing policies to vary across countries in the panel framework. Thus, this study makes three-dimensional contributions to increasing understanding of the inflation-poverty nexus.","PeriodicalId":511190,"journal":{"name":"International Trade, Politics and Development","volume":"10 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139591874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}