RBA Research Discussion Papers最新文献

筛选

英文中文

Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth during the COVID-19 Crisis Using a Monthly Activity Indicator 利用月度活动指标预测 COVID-19 危机期间的季度 GDP 增长情况

RBA Research Discussion Papers Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.47688/rdp2024-04

Luke Hartigan, Tom Rosewall

{"title":"Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth during the COVID-19 Crisis Using a Monthly Activity Indicator","authors":"Luke Hartigan, Tom Rosewall","doi":"10.47688/rdp2024-04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47688/rdp2024-04","url":null,"abstract":"What is happening now? The onset of the COVID-19 crisis highlighted the importance of having timely data on the economy to help policymakers make more informed decisions. However, the most comprehensive measure of activity, GDP, is published with a long lag, thereby limiting its value to policymakers as a measure of the current state of the economy. To overcome this information deficiency, we develop a monthly activity indicator (MAI) for Australia. The MAI aims to provide policymakers with a more immediate snapshot of prevailing economic conditions. We achieve this by using a dynamic factor model to summarise the information content from a curated list of 30 monthly predictors selected for their ability to explain movements in quarterly real GDP growth. We undertake a pseudo out-of-sample nowcasting exercise using the MAI in an unrestricted MIDAS model and find that nowcasts based on the MAI significantly outperform standard benchmarks. Crucially, outperformance is largest during the COVID-19 crisis, emphasising the benefit from considering monthly data. Our results demonstrate that the MAI is a useful tool for policymakers to gain a better understanding of current economic conditions in Australia.","PeriodicalId":507325,"journal":{"name":"RBA Research Discussion Papers","volume":"32 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141659441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions Impact Innovation? Evidence from Australian Administrative Data 货币政策和经济状况会影响创新吗？来自澳大利亚行政数据的证据

RBA Research Discussion Papers Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.47688/rdp2024-01

Omer Majeed, Jonathan Hambur, R. Breunig

{"title":"Do Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions Impact Innovation? Evidence from Australian Administrative Data","authors":"Omer Majeed, Jonathan Hambur, R. Breunig","doi":"10.47688/rdp2024-01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47688/rdp2024-01","url":null,"abstract":"Recent papers have argued that monetary policy and economic conditions can influence the amount of innovative activity in the economy, and therefore productivity and living standards in the future. This paper examines whether this is the case for Australia, a small open economy that tends to import innovation from overseas. We find that contractionary (expansionary) monetary policy reduces (increases) aggregate research and development (R&D) spending, and that lower (higher) R&D spending reduces (increases) future productivity. However, using firm-level data and a broader survey measure of innovation that also captures adoption, we find heterogeneous responses across different firm types. Small firms decrease innovation in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks whereas large firms increase innovation. This heterogeneity appears to reflect differing exposure to the channels through which monetary policy affects innovation. These channels include affecting demand or affecting financial conditions and constraints. We also find that US monetary policy spills over and affects Australian firms' innovation. Overall, our results suggest that monetary policy and economic conditions have medium-run effects on productivity, though the effects are more heterogeneous than previously documented. While the effects may cancel out over a cycle, this finding highlights the importance of stabilisation policy in preventing medium-run economic scarring.","PeriodicalId":507325,"journal":{"name":"RBA Research Discussion Papers","volume":"298 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139835822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions Impact Innovation? Evidence from Australian Administrative Data 货币政策和经济状况会影响创新吗？来自澳大利亚行政数据的证据

RBA Research Discussion Papers Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.47688/rdp2024-01

Omer Majeed, Jonathan Hambur, R. Breunig

{"title":"Do Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions Impact Innovation? Evidence from Australian Administrative Data","authors":"Omer Majeed, Jonathan Hambur, R. Breunig","doi":"10.47688/rdp2024-01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.47688/rdp2024-01","url":null,"abstract":"Recent papers have argued that monetary policy and economic conditions can influence the amount of innovative activity in the economy, and therefore productivity and living standards in the future. This paper examines whether this is the case for Australia, a small open economy that tends to import innovation from overseas. We find that contractionary (expansionary) monetary policy reduces (increases) aggregate research and development (R&D) spending, and that lower (higher) R&D spending reduces (increases) future productivity. However, using firm-level data and a broader survey measure of innovation that also captures adoption, we find heterogeneous responses across different firm types. Small firms decrease innovation in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks whereas large firms increase innovation. This heterogeneity appears to reflect differing exposure to the channels through which monetary policy affects innovation. These channels include affecting demand or affecting financial conditions and constraints. We also find that US monetary policy spills over and affects Australian firms' innovation. Overall, our results suggest that monetary policy and economic conditions have medium-run effects on productivity, though the effects are more heterogeneous than previously documented. While the effects may cancel out over a cycle, this finding highlights the importance of stabilisation policy in preventing medium-run economic scarring.","PeriodicalId":507325,"journal":{"name":"RBA Research Discussion Papers","volume":"29 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139776349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0