The World Economy最新文献

Indirect channel of trade agreements in deepening global value chains 贸易协定深化全球价值链的间接渠道

The World Economy Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13587

Jong Woo Kang, Joshua Anthony O. Gapay

{"title":"Indirect channel of trade agreements in deepening global value chains","authors":"Jong Woo Kang, Joshua Anthony O. Gapay","doi":"10.1111/twec.13587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13587","url":null,"abstract":"Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) between trading partners are known to have positive impact on the expanding and deepening of global value chain integration due to lower trade and investment barriers. Less is known, however, is if other PTAs of PTA partners have any impact on the value‐added trade linkages of the direct PTA partners concerned. Based on compositive indicators measuring the breadth and depth of PTAs from 2007 to 2018 and using Multiregional Input–Output Table database covering 62 countries and 35 sectors and the Content of Deep Trade Agreements database, this paper estimates the multiplicative form of the constant‐elasticity augmented gravity equation model by a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator. This study shows that indirect impact of the deepening of trade agreements of a country's PTA partner exerts positive, significant impact on value‐added exports of a country. Both backward and forward linkages of a country measured by various decomposition of valued added exports indicate this indirect channel of value chain deepening effect even outweighs the direct impact from the deepening of PTAs between direct trading partners with significant policy implications in formulating PTA strategies.","PeriodicalId":503473,"journal":{"name":"The World Economy","volume":"7 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141105557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

‘From aspirations for climate action to the reality of climate disasters’: Can remittances play key role in disaster response? 从气候行动的愿望到气候灾害的现实"：汇款能否在灾害应对中发挥关键作用？

The World Economy Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13586

Farid Makhlouf, Refk Selmi

{"title":"‘From aspirations for climate action to the reality of climate disasters’: Can remittances play key role in disaster response?","authors":"Farid Makhlouf, Refk Selmi","doi":"10.1111/twec.13586","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13586","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and extreme weather events have led to a surge in natural hazards in Pakistan that have escalated into humanitarian disasters. While remittances are often central to the livelihood of the most vulnerable, research has produced limited knowledge regarding the role of remittances in time of disaster. This paper investigates the reaction of Pakistani migrants to five major natural disasters via remittances from 1972 to 2023. Using an event‐study methodology, the paper compares the responses of remittances in different host countries namely Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Europe & the UK and North America. We provide evidence that remittances intensify in response to climate‐induced disasters, thus representing a reactive mechanism in time of hardship. The response is significant two (one) months after the events for GCC (Europe & the UK and North America) and tends to dissipate 5 months from the disaster occurrence (except for GCC). The intensity and the persistence of remittances' responsiveness (abnormal returns and volatility) depends on the nature of disasters, host countries’ features and the economic conditions of migrants. Our findings highlight the need for further understanding the role of remittances as a coping mechanism in the face of environmental hazards to better inform policies geared toward disaster risk reduction.","PeriodicalId":503473,"journal":{"name":"The World Economy","volume":"26 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141117342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation 地缘政治风险、供应链和全球通胀

The World Economy Pub Date : 2024-05-19 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13585

Omid Asadollah, L. Carmy, Md. Rezwanul Hoque, H. Yilmazkuday

{"title":"Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation","authors":"Omid Asadollah, L. Carmy, Md. Rezwanul Hoque, H. Yilmazkuday","doi":"10.1111/twec.13585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13585","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the effects of global geopolitical risks and global supply chain pressures on global inflation for the monthly period of 1999M1–2022M12. The investigation is based on a structural vector autoregression model, where the effects of global oil prices and global monetary policy are controlled for. Four alternative measures of inflation are used, including headline, core, food, and energy inflation. The empirical results show that disruptions in global supply chains are the main drivers of global inflation in the long run as the corresponding shocks explain the lion's share of volatilities in headline inflation (by 32%), core inflation (by 30%), and food inflation (by 22%), followed by oil price shocks and policy rate shocks. In comparison, energy inflation is explained the most by oil price shocks (by 55%) followed by supply chain shocks and policy rate shocks. Positive supply chain pressure and oil price shocks have positive and statistically significant effects on headline inflation even after five years, whereas positive policy rate shocks have negative and statistically significant effects on headline inflation in the long run. In contrast, positive shocks to geopolitical risk result in higher headline inflation only up to one year, with insignificant effects in the long run. Several policy implications follow.","PeriodicalId":503473,"journal":{"name":"The World Economy","volume":"121 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141124106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Environmental regulations in developing countries and the span of firms' production stages: Evidence from China 发展中国家的环境法规与企业生产阶段的跨度：来自中国的证据

The World Economy Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13583

Shuijun Peng, Lamei Wu, Liang Zhang

{"title":"Environmental regulations in developing countries and the span of firms' production stages: Evidence from China","authors":"Shuijun Peng, Lamei Wu, Liang Zhang","doi":"10.1111/twec.13583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13583","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the well‐established tradeoff between economic development and environmental protection, research on the economic costs of alleviating pollution, especially from the perspective of global value chain upgradation, is scarce. In 2006, in its Eleventh Five‐Year Plan, the Chinese government implemented strict environmental regulations against air pollution. We examine the causal effect of these environmental regulations – which were stricter for higher pollution emission provinces compared with lower pollution emission provinces – on Chinese firms' span of production stages after the policy shock. A difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences estimation reveals that, first, environmental regulations have a significantly negative effect on firms' span of production stages that robustness checks corroborate; second, the negative effects of environmental regulations on firms' span of production stages are realised through the simultaneous decline in import upstreamness and increase in export upstreamness. Heterogeneity tests indicate that the effects are more significant for firms in eastern China, and foreign‐owned firms; finally, the negative effects are manifested through the emission‐related input and output, productivity, and innovation mechanisms. Meanwhile, there are significant emission reduction effects. These results have implications on environmental policies in developing countries in terms of reiterating the need to achieve the dual objectives of environmental protection and global value chain upgradation.","PeriodicalId":503473,"journal":{"name":"The World Economy","volume":"12 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140972809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Turning green through within‐firm adjustment: Evidence from environmental court in China 通过企业内部调整实现绿色转型：中国环保法庭的证据

The World Economy Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13576

Xiang Gao, Suhua Tian, Huanhuan Wang, Xuan Wang

引用次数: 0

Labour market flexibility and domestic value‐added trade: Evidence from the hukou reform in China 劳动力市场灵活性与国内增值贸易：来自中国户籍改革的证据

The World Economy Pub Date : 2023-12-27 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13546

Wenxiao Wang, Faqin Lin, Fengning Huan, Yanyun Li

引用次数: 0

Firm innovation under import competition from low‐wage countries 低工资国家进口竞争下的企业创新

The World Economy Pub Date : 2023-11-27 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13535

U. Chakravorty, Runjuan Liu, Ruotao Tang, Long Zhao

{"title":"Firm innovation under import competition from low‐wage countries","authors":"U. Chakravorty, Runjuan Liu, Ruotao Tang, Long Zhao","doi":"10.1111/twec.13535","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13535","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, manufacturing firms in the United States have faced increasing import competition from low‐wage countries, especially China. Does this competition hurt or help firm innovation? This paper studies the effect of the surge in imports from China on innovation by US manufacturing firms. We first propose a theoretical framework that generates an inverted‐U‐shaped curve of innovation on imitation, which is based on the endogenous price elasticity of demand for the product in a Cournot model. We then take the theoretical prediction to data on publicly listed firms in the Compustat data set from 1990 to 2010. We find consistent evidence that Chinese import competition had an inverted‐U effect on firm innovation, as measured by patent counts and citation‐weighted patents. Our result suggests that when import penetration is less than 60% it positively affects firm innovation, but when it is more than 60%, this positive effect is inverted. This inverted‐U relation persists when we instrument import competition in the United States by using Chinese import penetration in the United Kingdom and when we test the robustness of the results by including sector‐specific trends. We find that the inverted‐U relationship is steeper for firms in high‐tech industries.","PeriodicalId":503473,"journal":{"name":"The World Economy","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139231297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0