Asian journal of economics and empirical research最新文献

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The deterioration of current account balance in selected countries of MENA: Causes of concern 中东和北非部分国家经常账户收支恶化：令人担忧的原因

Asian journal of economics and empirical research Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.20448/ajeer.v11i1.5796

Nemer Badwan, Ihab Al-Qubbaj

{"title":"The deterioration of current account balance in selected countries of MENA: Causes of concern","authors":"Nemer Badwan, Ihab Al-Qubbaj","doi":"10.20448/ajeer.v11i1.5796","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20448/ajeer.v11i1.5796","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic factors that influence the current account balance deterioration in the selected Middle East and North Africa MENA countries (Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, Palestine, and Lebanon). Data from six MENA countries were analyzed using a panel-static approach. This study employs the Breusch-Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test, the pooled ordinary least squares model (OLS), and the random effect model (REM). The findings reveal that exchange rate (ER), interest rate (IR), and term of trade (ToT) are the main factors that influence the deterioration of the current account balance. The money supply (MS) and oil prices (OP) had negligible correlations with the current account balance. The study's findings suggest significant practical implications for policymakers and regulators in MENA countries. Given the significant influence of exchange rate (ER), interest rate (IR), and term of trade (ToT) on the current account balance, we recommend that the authorities in MENA countries implement policy reforms and macroeconomic adjustments to mitigate the current account balance deterioration. A deterioration in the current account balance began in 2018, sparking concerns in most MENA countries. The problem in the current account has led to various disadvantages in MENA countries, which will harm the economic health of the countries.","PeriodicalId":487885,"journal":{"name":"Asian journal of economics and empirical research","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141835495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The time-varying impact of US monetary policy spillovers on small open economies: Evidence from Indonesia 美国货币政策溢出效应对小型开放经济体的时变影响：印度尼西亚的证据

Asian journal of economics and empirical research Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.20448/ajeer.v11i1.5797

Saba Ndayezhin Danladi, A. R. Sanusi

{"title":"The time-varying impact of US monetary policy spillovers on small open economies: Evidence from Indonesia","authors":"Saba Ndayezhin Danladi, A. R. Sanusi","doi":"10.20448/ajeer.v11i1.5797","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20448/ajeer.v11i1.5797","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the impact of the US monetary policy spillover on Indonesia’s macroeconomic and financial variables using quarterly data for the period 2000–2020 for both domestic and US variables. The study uses a Bayesian form of a time-varying parameter (TVP) vector autoregressive (VAR) model with stochastic volatility to look at how real GDP, inflation, the exchange rate, the stock market return, and the monetary policy rate react to a shock in US monetary policy. We find that US monetary policy spillovers, on average, boost Indonesia’s real GDP, stock market returns, and bilateral exchange rate vis a vis the US Dollar but also trigger domestic inflation beyond what Indonesia’s policy reaction could counteract. However, there are significant differences between the variables' responses to easing and tightening shocks, on the one hand, and conventional vs. unconventional monetary policy, on the other. Finally, we found substantial time variation corresponding to major global events, including the Global Financial Crisis and implementation of unconventional monetary policy, the taper tantrum of 2013–2014, and the severe lockdown in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019–2020. These findings underscore the importance for policymakers in Indonesia to closely monitor and anticipate the impact of US monetary policy spillovers on domestic macroeconomic variables. This knowledge can inform more effective policy responses and risk management strategies to safeguard economic stability and promote sustainable growth.","PeriodicalId":487885,"journal":{"name":"Asian journal of economics and empirical research","volume":"41 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141835438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0