American Journal of Applied Statistics and Economics最新文献

Forecasting the Global Price of Corn: Unveiling Insights with SARIMA Modelling Amidst Geopolitical Events and Market Dynamics 预测全球玉米价格：在地缘政治事件和市场动态中利用 SARIMA 模型揭示洞察力

American Journal of Applied Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI: 10.54536/ajase.v3i1.2776

Raksha Khadka, Yeong Nain Chi

{"title":"Forecasting the Global Price of Corn: Unveiling Insights with SARIMA Modelling Amidst Geopolitical Events and Market Dynamics","authors":"Raksha Khadka, Yeong Nain Chi","doi":"10.54536/ajase.v3i1.2776","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54536/ajase.v3i1.2776","url":null,"abstract":"Corn is pivotal in global agriculture, serving diverse purposes in the food, feed, and biofuel sectors. Despite its economic significance, corn price volatility, influenced by supply-demand dynamics, climate variations, and geopolitical tensions, poses challenges in decision-making processes. This necessitates accurate price forecasting of corn for producers and government alike to formulate effective policies that uphold stability and enhance efficiency within the corn market. Using long-term records of the monthly global price of corn spanning from January 2014 to December 2023, this study employs SARIMA modeling techniques to forecast the global price of corn. To find a solution, the auto.arima() function from the “forecast” package in R 4.3.2 for Windows was employed to identify both the structure of the series (stationary or not) and type (seasonal or not) and sets the model’s parameters, which takes into account the AIC, AICc or BIC values generated to determine the best fitting seasonal ARIMA model. Following the Box–Jenkins methodology, the best-fitting SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,0,1) [12] model was identified, supported by the lowest AIC value. The Ljung–Box Q–test further validated the model’s adequacy in capturing the data’s behavior, with a non-significant p-value of 0.7013. This analysis uncovered valuable insights into the fluctuations of corn prices, providing a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between economic factors and external influences. This study underscores the practical utility of SARIMA modeling for farmers and other relevant stakeholders in anticipating market fluctuations and devising adaptive strategies in response to evolving corn market dynamics.","PeriodicalId":478394,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Applied Statistics and Economics","volume":"8 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141920839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Research on the Development of Green Energy Ecological Economy Industry 绿色能源生态经济产业发展研究

American Journal of Applied Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.54536/ajase.v3i1.2864

Kailun Gu, Jiaxing Li, Yulin Qin

{"title":"Research on the Development of Green Energy Ecological Economy Industry","authors":"Kailun Gu, Jiaxing Li, Yulin Qin","doi":"10.54536/ajase.v3i1.2864","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54536/ajase.v3i1.2864","url":null,"abstract":"Since modern times, with the rapid development of the economy and the improvement of people’s living standards, people have gradually begun to pay attention to green environmental protection, attach importance to the development of green economy, and at the same time, the development of green economy has also put forward the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure. Today’s green economy has become the trend of the times, and it is an economic development path to realize the harmony between man and nature. Continuously strive to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, it will provide important support and reference for the development of renewable energy in the Republic. Based on the analysis of the literature and the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, this paper puts forward the problems existing in today’s green ecological economy, and gives relevant reasonable suggestions for these problems, hoping to provide relevant references for energy economy enterprises, so as to promote complementary advantages and promote the development of national energy transformation. In order to promote the economic value and economic development significance of green economy in ecological and environmental protection, so as to realize the prospect of green economic development from the perspective of ecological and environmental protection, and the effective path of today is discussed and summarized, in order to help the development of China’s green economy.","PeriodicalId":478394,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Applied Statistics and Economics","volume":" 23","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141370023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mode Innovation and Discussion of Enterprise Financial Management in the New Economic Background 新经济背景下企业财务管理的模式创新与探讨

American Journal of Applied Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.54536/ajase.v3i1.2433

Haojie Wang

引用次数: 0

Econometric Modelling of Macroeconomic Interdependencies and the Impact on Nigeria’s Economic Growth Amidst the Covid-19 Pandemic 宏观经济相互依存关系的计量经济模型及其对2019冠状病毒病大流行期间尼日利亚经济增长的影响

American Journal of Applied Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2023-09-22 DOI: 10.54536/ajase.v2i1.1792

O N Ogunnusi, I A Ajibode

{"title":"Econometric Modelling of Macroeconomic Interdependencies and the Impact on Nigeria’s Economic Growth Amidst the Covid-19 Pandemic","authors":"O N Ogunnusi, I A Ajibode","doi":"10.54536/ajase.v2i1.1792","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54536/ajase.v2i1.1792","url":null,"abstract":"This paper dwelt on the investigation of the impact of COVID-19 on economic growth of Nigeria with reference to crude oil price, crude oil export and naira/dollar exchange rate as macroeconomic indicators. The pre and during COVID-19 periods were represented by dummy variables (0, 1). Six years of monthly data ranging between 2016 and 2021 were obtained from the CBN and NBS bulletin. The ARDL model was calculated using the e-view programme. The findings revealed a long-term cointegration between the variables under consideration. There was a significant association established in the short term between the lagged dependent variable, exchange rate, and dummy variable at a 1% level of significance. However, the crude oil price had no significant impact on the model over the study period. According to these findings, the government should diversify its focus by investing more in non-traditional sectors, particularly the service and agricultural sectors. Over-reliance on crude oil exports should be decreased, as the pandemic has highlighted the importance of being prepared for unexpected events and having a resilient economy. Nigeria can reduce its vulnerability to external shocks and boost economic growth by researching and developing in other areas. The epidemic acts as a wake-up call to prioritise diversification and resilience in the face of future uncertainties.","PeriodicalId":478394,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Applied Statistics and Economics","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136060577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0