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Are Medicaid and Medicare Patients Treated Equally? 医疗补助计划和医疗保险计划的患者是否享受同等待遇？
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-14
Calvin Ackley, Abe Dunn, E. Liebman, A. Shapiro
{"title":"Are Medicaid and Medicare Patients Treated Equally?","authors":"Calvin Ackley, Abe Dunn, E. Liebman, A. Shapiro","doi":"10.24148/wp2024-14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2024-14","url":null,"abstract":"We examine whether Medicaid recipients receive the same health care services as those on Medicare. We track the services provided to the same individual as they age into Medicare from Medicaid at age 65, becoming dual enrolled. Cost sharing remains negligible across the insurance switch, implying that observed changes in service provision reflect supply-side factors. Service provision increases by about 20 percent upon switching to Medicare, across a range of categories and treatments including high-value care. We find that 60 to 90 percent of the increase in office visits is explained by physicians averse to accepting new Medicaid patients. Geographic variation in our estimates shows that the average increase in utilization is larger in those states with lower Medicaid acceptance rates and higher Medicare acceptance rates. By contrast, we find relatively small increases in care from existing Medicaid providers. This analysis indicates that Medicaid’s smaller provider network plays a large role in limiting service provision.","PeriodicalId":472905,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series","volume":"6 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140697600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Macroeconomic Model of Central Bank Digital Currency 中央银行数字货币的宏观经济模型
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-11
Pascal Paul, Mauricio Ulate
{"title":"A Macroeconomic Model of Central Bank Digital Currency","authors":"Pascal Paul, Mauricio Ulate","doi":"10.24148/wp2024-11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2024-11","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a quantitative New Keynesian DSGE model to study the introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC): government-backed digital money available to retail consumers. At the heart of our model are monopolistic banks with market power in deposit and loan markets. When a CBDC is introduced, households benefit from an expansion of liquidity services and higher deposit rates as bank deposit market power is curtailed. However, deposits also flow out of the banking system and bank lending contracts. We assess this welfare trade-off for a wide range of economies that differ in their level of interest rates. We find substantial welfare gains from introducing a CBDC with an optimal interest rate that can be approximated by a simple rule of thumb: the maximum between 0% and the policy rate minus 1%.","PeriodicalId":472905,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series","volume":"8 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140728616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation Expectations, Liquidity Premia and Global Spillovers in Japanese Bond Markets 日本债券市场的通胀预期、流动性溢价和全球溢出效应
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-12
Jens H. E. Christensen, Mark M. Spiegel
{"title":"Inflation Expectations, Liquidity Premia and Global Spillovers in Japanese Bond Markets","authors":"Jens H. E. Christensen, Mark M. Spiegel","doi":"10.24148/wp2024-12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2024-12","url":null,"abstract":"We provide market-based estimates of Japanese inflation expectations using an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real yields that accounts for liquidity premia and the deflation protection afforded by Japanese inflation-indexed bonds, known as JGBi’s. We find that JGBi liquidity premia exhibit significant variation, and even switch sign. Properly accounting for them significantly lowers the estimated value of the indexed bonds’ deflation protection and affects inflation risk premium estimates. After liquidity adjustment, long-term Japanese inflation expectations have remained relatively stable at levels modestly exceeding one percent during the pandemic period. We then utilize our estimated liquidity measure to confirm the existence of statistically significant and economically meaningful spillovers to the JGBi market from global bond market illiquidity, as proxied by periods of low U.S. Treasury market depth.","PeriodicalId":472905,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series","volume":"40 30","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140728019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy 小型开放经济体中的量化宽松、债券风险溢价和汇率
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-13
Jens H. E. Christensen, Xin Zhang
{"title":"Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy","authors":"Jens H. E. Christensen, Xin Zhang","doi":"10.24148/wp2024-13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2024-13","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the impact of large-scale asset purchases, commonly known as quantitative easing (QE), conducted by Sveriges Riksbank and the European Central Bank (ECB) on bond risk premia in the Swedish government bond market. Using a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for bond-specific safety premia, we find that Sveriges Riksbank’s bond purchases raised inflation and short-rate expectations, lowered nominal and real term premia and inflation risk premia, and increased nominal bond safety premia, suggestive of signaling, portfolio rebalance, and safe asset scarcity effects. Furthermore, we document spillover effects of ECB’s QE programs on Swedish bond markets that are similar to the Swedish QE effects only after controlling for exchange rate fluctuations, highlighting the importance of exchange rate dynamics in the transmission of QE spillover effects.","PeriodicalId":472905,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series","volume":"16 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140745138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds 欧元区的自然利率：通货膨胀指数债券的证据
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2024-03-08 DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-08
Jens H. E. Christensen, Sarah Mouabbi
{"title":"The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds","authors":"Jens H. E. Christensen, Sarah Mouabbi","doi":"10.24148/wp2024-08","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2024-08","url":null,"abstract":"The so-called equilibrium or natural rate of interest, widely known as r*t, is a key variable used to judge the stance of monetary policy. We offer a novel euro-area estimate based on a dynamic term structure model estimated directly on the prices of bonds with cash flows indexed to the euro-area harmonized index of consumer prices with adjustments for bond-specific risk and real term premia. Despite a recent increase, our estimate indicates that the natural rate in the euro area has fallen about 2 percentage points on net since 2002 and remains negative at the end of our sample. We also devise a related measure of the stance of monetary policy, which suggests that monetary policy in the euro area was not accommodative at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":472905,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series","volume":"80 S53","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140257182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Distribution of Market Power, Endogenous Growth, and Monetary Policy 市场力量的分布、内生增长与货币政策
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-09
Yumeng Gu, Sanjay R. Singh
{"title":"Distribution of Market Power, Endogenous Growth, and Monetary Policy","authors":"Yumeng Gu, Sanjay R. Singh","doi":"10.24148/wp2024-09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2024-09","url":null,"abstract":"We incorporate incumbent innovation in a Keynesian growth framework to generate an endogenous distribution of market power across firms. Existing firms increase markups over time through successful innovation. Entrant innovation disrupts the accumulation of market power by incumbents. Using this environment, we highlight a novel misallocation channel for monetary policy. A contractionary monetary policy shock causes an increase in markup dispersion across firms by discouraging entrant innovation relative to incumbent innovation. We characterize the circumstances when contractionary monetary policy may increase misallocation.","PeriodicalId":472905,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140424484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Would the Euro Area Benefit from Greater Labor Mobility? 欧元区是否会受益于更大的劳动力流动性？
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-06
Vasco Cúrdia, Fernanda Nechio
{"title":"Would the Euro Area Benefit from Greater Labor Mobility?","authors":"Vasco Cúrdia, Fernanda Nechio","doi":"10.24148/wp2024-06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2024-06","url":null,"abstract":"We assess how within euro area labor mobility impacts economic dynamics in response to shocks. In the analysis we use an estimated two-region monetary union dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that allows for a varying degree of labor mobility across regions. We find that, in contrast with traditional optimal currency area predictions, enhanced labor mobility can either mitigate or exacerbate the extent to which the two regions respond differently to shocks. The effects depend crucially on the nature of shocks and variable of interest. In some circumstances, even when it contributes to aligning the responses of the two regions, labor mobility may complicate monetary policy tradeoffs. Moreover, the presence and strength of financial frictions have important implications for the effects of labor mobility. If the periphery’s risk premium is more responsive to its indebtedness than our estimates, there are various shocks for which labor mobility may help stabilize the economy. Finally, the euro area’s economic performance following the Global Financial Crisis would not have been necessarily smoother with enhanced labor mobility.","PeriodicalId":472905,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series","volume":"24 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140425675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regional Dissent: Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes? 地区分歧：地方经济状况会影响 FOMC 的投票吗？
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-05
Anton Bobrov, Rupal Kamdar, Mauricio Ulate
{"title":"Regional Dissent: Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?","authors":"Anton Bobrov, Rupal Kamdar, Mauricio Ulate","doi":"10.24148/wp2024-05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2024-05","url":null,"abstract":"U.S. monetary-policy decisions are made by the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Seven of these members, coming from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, inherently represent national-level interests. The remaining five members, a rotating group of presidents from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, come instead from sub-national jurisdictions. Does this structure have relevant implications for the monetary policy-making process? In this paper, we first build a panel dataset on economic activity across Fed districts. We then provide evidence that regional economic conditions influence the voting behavior of district presidents. Specifically, a regional unemployment rate that is one percentage point higher than the U.S. level is associated with an approximately nine percentage points higher probability of dissenting in favor of looser policy at the FOMC. This result is statistically significant, robust to different specifications, and indicates that the regional component in the structure of the FOMC could matter for monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":472905,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series","volume":"51 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140429752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment 了解持久性 ZLB：理论与评估
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-03
Pablo A. Cuba-Borda, Sanjay R. Singh
{"title":"Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment","authors":"Pablo A. Cuba-Borda, Sanjay R. Singh","doi":"10.24148/wp2024-03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2024-03","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a theoretical framework that rationalizes two hypotheses of long-lasting low interest rate episodes: deflationary-expectations-traps and secular stagnation in a unified setting. These hypotheses differ in the sign of the theoretical correlation between inflation and output growth that they imply. Using the data from Japan over 1998:Q1-2019:Q4, we find that the data favor the expectations-trap hypothesis. The superior model fit of the expectations trap relies on its ability to generate the observed negative correlation between inflation and output growth.","PeriodicalId":472905,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series","volume":"21 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140442501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Post-Pandemic New Normal for Interest Rates in Emerging Bond Markets? Evidence from Chile 大流行后新兴债券市场利率的新常态？智利的证据
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-04
L. Ceballos, Jens H. E. Christensen, Damián Romero
{"title":"A Post-Pandemic New Normal for Interest Rates in Emerging Bond Markets? Evidence from Chile","authors":"L. Ceballos, Jens H. E. Christensen, Damián Romero","doi":"10.24148/wp2024-04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2024-04","url":null,"abstract":"Before the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers intensely debated the extent of the decline in the steady-state short-term real interest rate—the so-called equilibrium or natural rate of interest. Given the recent sharp increase in interest rates, we revisit this question in an emerging bond market context and offer a Chilean perspective using a dynamic term structure finance model estimated directly on the prices of individual Chilean inflation indexed bonds with adjustments for bond-specific liquidity risk and real term premia. We estimate that the equilibrium real rate in Chile fell about 2 and a half percentage points in the 2003-2022 period and has remained low since then.","PeriodicalId":472905,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series","volume":"73 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140444253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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