{"title":"A New Measure of Fiscal Transparency","authors":"C. Columbano","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3829232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3829232","url":null,"abstract":"The disclosure of fiscal and economic forecasts represents an increasingly important pillar of government transparency. Yet, a measure of transparency in fiscal and economic forecasts is presently missing. This article exploits the institutional features of the European Union’s (EU) Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) to construct a longitudinal, cross-country measure of transparency in government forecasts and to investigate its characteristics and drivers. The analysis reveals that governments are selective vis-à-vis the kind of forecasts they disclose: fiscal and economic flows are forecasted more frequently than fiscal stocks and assumptions. In addition, governments are relatively more willing to disclose short-term as opposed to medium-term forecasts. Finally, transparency is largely a function of political dynamics. Strikingly – given that the sample includes EU countries – the evidence indicates that variation in the degree of democracy is an important determinant of transparency.","PeriodicalId":430327,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Forecasts of Budgets","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125325075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Duncan, H. Hodgson, J. Minas, R. Ong, Richard Seymour
{"title":"The Income Tax Treatment of Housing Assets: An Assessment of Proposed Reform Arrangements","authors":"A. Duncan, H. Hodgson, J. Minas, R. Ong, Richard Seymour","doi":"10.18408/AHURI-8111101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18408/AHURI-8111101","url":null,"abstract":"This research models several politically acceptable pathways to reform negative gearing and CGT so as to reduce impacts on less sophisticated property investors. Two reform models— a rental deduction cap of $5,000 and a progressive rental deduction based on income—could lead to savings of over $1.7 billion each. Both are progressive in nature, reducing tax savings from negative gearing as tax assessable income increases.","PeriodicalId":430327,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Forecasts of Budgets","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121700515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling Oil-Sector Dependency of Tax Revenues in a Resource Rich Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan","authors":"A. Musayev, Khatai Aliyev","doi":"10.11118/ACTAUN201765031023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11118/ACTAUN201765031023","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting tax revenues is an important issue in budget planning. As a resource rich country, Azerbaijan’s budget revenues is severely depend on oil price and production levels. This study investigates oil sector dependency of state budget tax revenues in case of Azerbaijan by employing FMOLS, DOLS and CCR cointegration methods for the period of 2000Q1 – 2015Q2. Empirical results indicate statistically and economically significant positive long‑run impact of both oil related factors on tax revenues. Considering current fiscal challenges in the country, research findings are very useful for policy purposes and fills the gap in the literature by drawing mechanism of the association and estimating the relationship empirically.","PeriodicalId":430327,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Forecasts of Budgets","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124728582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Who Accurately Predicted the End of the Government Shutdown?","authors":"Chris C. Martin, Kimmo Eriksson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2609920","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2609920","url":null,"abstract":"In October 2013, the US government was shut down because of a stalled budget bill, and uncertainty prevailed regarding the end of the shutdown. Four days before the shutdown ended, we conducted a study on Mechanical Turk (N=225) to investigate which individual differences were associated with accurate predictions of the shutdown’s end. The most accurate forecasts were made by people who were politically knowledgeable and politically engaged. Self-confidence (in one’s forecast) and generalized trust were also positively associated with accuracy, but optimism was not. Conservatives were expected to predict later end dates, yet conservatism neither predicted inaccuracy nor moderated the other effects. These findings suggest that in at least some political forecasts, ideology may play a trivial role.","PeriodicalId":430327,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Forecasts of Budgets","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130284972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Combine to Compete: Improving Fiscal Forecast Accuracy Over Time","authors":"Laura Carabotta, P. Claeys","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2596486","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2596486","url":null,"abstract":"Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.","PeriodicalId":430327,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Forecasts of Budgets","volume":"23 5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133363337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Diminished Returns: Managing Oil Revenues in Azerbaijan","authors":"G. Ibadoghlu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3218184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3218184","url":null,"abstract":"Azerbaijan’s government established a national oil fund in 1999 to address the challenges associated with oil-rich countries, such as addressing revenue fluctuations, saving for future generations and investing in development. However, as described in precept 7 of the Natural Resource Charter, a fund in itself is no panacea: it can only achieve its aims with clear rules governing its operation, as well as transparency and oversight. Azerbaijan is heavily dependent on natural resources. The oil and gas sector contributed to more than 90 percent of export earnings and more than threequarters of the state budget revenues in 2013. The State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) since held some US $36.6 billion as of July 2014, representing approximately 50 percent of GDP. These revenues are distributed among the state budget, the financing of infrastructure projects, and saved in foreign financial assets. Oil and gas revenue is expected to begin declining permanently in 2015, and while Azerbaijan’s savings are large in comparison with other countries, the loss in revenue will not be compensated by the returns on SOFAZ’s financial assets. This is a particular challenge for Azerbaijan since the government has not found alternative sources of fiscal revenue. To maintain current spending levels, taxes will have to rise or the government will need to borrow.","PeriodicalId":430327,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Forecasts of Budgets","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125146723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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