GeographyRN: Environmental Change (Sub-Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Projecting the Effect of Climate Change-Induced Increases in Extreme Rainfall on Residential Property Damages: A Case Study from New Zealand","authors":"J. Pástor-Paz, Ilan Noy, Isabelle Sin, David A. Fleming, A. Sood","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3547769","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3547769","url":null,"abstract":"New Zealand’s public insurer, the Earthquake Commission (EQC), provides residential insurance for some weather-related damage. Climate change and the expected increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather-related events are likely to translate into higher damages and thus an additional financial liability for the EQC. We project future insured damages from extreme precipitation events associated with future projected climatic change. We first estimate the empirical relationship between extreme precipitation events and the EQC’s weather-related insurance claims based on a complete dataset of all claims from 2000 to 2017. We then use this estimated relationship, together with climate projections based on future greenhouse gases concentration scenarios from six different dynamically downscaled Regional Climate Models, to predict the impact of future extreme precipitation events on EQC liabilities for different time horizons up to the year 2100. Our results show predicted adverse impacts that vary -increase or decrease over time and space. The percent change between projected and past damages—the climate change signal—ranges between an increase of 7% and 8% higher in the period 2020 to 2040, and between 9% and 25% higher in the period 2080 to 2100. We also provide detail caveats as to why these quantities might be mis-estimated. The projected increase in the public insurer’s liabilities could also be used to inform private insurers, regulators, and policymakers who are assessing the future performance of both the public and private insurers that cover weather-related risks in the face of climatic change. We combine firm-level innovation data with area-level Census data to examine the relationship between local workforce characteristics, especially the presence of immigrants and local skills, and the likelihood of innovation by firms. We examine a range of innovation outcomes, and test the relationship for selected subgroups of firms. We find a positive relationship between local workforce characteristics and average innovation outcomes in labour market areas, but this is accounted for by variation in firm characteristics such as firm size, industry, and research and development expenditure. Controlling for these influences, we find no systematic evidence of an independent link between local workforce characteristics and innovation.","PeriodicalId":404087,"journal":{"name":"GeographyRN: Environmental Change (Sub-Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116055668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Economic and Financial Costs of Climate Change in Small Island Developing States: Assessing the Effect of Hurricanes & Tropical Storms on Stock and Foreign Exchange Markets in Jamaica","authors":"C. Robinson, Prosper F. Bangwayo-Skeete","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3411742","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3411742","url":null,"abstract":"During the year 2017, hurricanes Irma and Maria wreaked havoc in the Caribbean and severely disrupted entire societies. This study extends the literature on the impact of climate change on Small Island Developing States by investigating the impact of hurricanes and tropical storms on stock and foreign exchange markets in Jamaica. The study finds that in a majority of cases, the passage of hurricanes and tropical storms lead to significant losses on Jamaica’s stock and foreign exchange markets, and in some cases, exceed the widely reported losses from damage to property and infrastructure. The implication is that failure to account for financial market losses can significantly understate the economic and financial impact of natural disasters.<br><br>The results reinforce the vulnerability of Small Island Developing States like Jamaica to natural disasters and provide another dimension to the scale of the negative impacts of climate change on these nations. The findings also suggest that measures to mitigate the effects of climate change and natural disasters not only minimize loss of life, property and infrastructure, but may also serve to protect the value of pensions and other investments held in the stock market, as well as help maintain the stability of the currency.","PeriodicalId":404087,"journal":{"name":"GeographyRN: Environmental Change (Sub-Topic)","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131314418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Moving the Coal-Posts: Ottawa’s Wrong Turn on Carbon Pricing for Electricity Generation","authors":"Grant Bishop","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3377369","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3377369","url":null,"abstract":"New federal government carbon pricing regulations for electricity generators will reduce the average carbon cost for coal plants, while decreasing incentives for cleaner wind, solar and hydro projects, says a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute.<br><br>As phase two of the carbon-pricing “backstop”, originally enacted in 2018 under the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act, the federal government has proposed an emissions benchmark for electricity generators that will vary by the type of fuel used.<br><br>In “Moving the Coal-Posts: Ottawa’s Wrong Turn on Carbon Pricing for Electricity Generation,” author Grant Bishop examines Ottawa’s proposed plan and finds that a fuel-specific approach creates an unlevel playing field between different sources of electricity. The federal government’s fuel-specific method contrasts with Alberta’s current Carbon Competitiveness Incentive Regulation, which uses a uniform benchmark for all fuels used to generated electricity.<br><br>The report finds that relative to a uniform standard for output-based allocations, Ottawa’s fuel-specific benchmark risks distorting the order in which plants are dispatched (i.e. turned on and off as demand requires) – potentially pushing high-emission coal plants ahead of lower-emission natural gas plants. In addition, unlike Alberta’s approach, Ottawa’s system does not allocate credits to zero-emission electricity producers such as hydro, wind and solar, and will diminish incentive for new investment in renewable generation.<br><br>“Ottawa’s approach undercuts the concept of a single economy-wide carbon price and the economic rationale behind carbon pricing,” says Bishop. “While the federal government is likely concerned to avoid spikes in power prices in those provinces where power generation currently relies on coal, Ottawa risks distorting provincial power markets and investment incentives by differentiating carbon costs for producers of the same product.”","PeriodicalId":404087,"journal":{"name":"GeographyRN: Environmental Change (Sub-Topic)","volume":"119 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123473257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving Land-Use Modelling within CGE to Assess Forest-Based Mitigation Potential and Costs","authors":"M. Michetti, R. Parrado","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2013948","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2013948","url":null,"abstract":"We present a computable general equilibrium model properly modified to analyse the potential role of the European forestry sector within climate mitigation. Improvements on database and modelling frameworks allow accounting for land heterogeneity across and within regions and for land transfers between agriculture, grazing, and forestry. The forestry sector has been modified to track carbon mitigation potential from both intensive and extensive forest margins, which have been calibrated according to a forest sectoral model. Two sets of climate policies are simulated. In a first scenario, Europe is assumed to commit unilaterally to reduce CO2 emissions by 20% and 30%, by 2020. In a second scenario, in addition to the emissions quotas, progressively higher forest sequestration subsidies are paid to European firms to foster the implementation of forestry practices. Results show that including forest carbon in the compliance strategy decreases European policy costs and carbon price, while it does not lead to significant reductions in carbon leakage. We conclude that while European forests can reinforce other mitigation measures, their contribution as a stand-alone abatement strategy results insufficient to comply with emissions reduction targets. Additionally, carbon sinks provided by European temperate forests do not offer considerable mitigation potential if compared with other forest biomes around the world. A much higher forest mitigation would require other regions to take part in a climate stabilization agreement, especially those where old-growth forests exist.","PeriodicalId":404087,"journal":{"name":"GeographyRN: Environmental Change (Sub-Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126127822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}