{"title":"The Effect of Debt Market Imperfection on Capital Structure and Investment: Evidence from the 2008 Global Financial Crisis in Japan","authors":"Hiromichi Iwaki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2311628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2311628","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates how debt market frictions affect real firm behaviors such as capital structures and investments differently based on whether a firm has access to the public debt market, taking debt structure differences into account. To this aim, using the natural experimental approach to examine the 2008 credit supply shock in Japan, we show that firms without access to the public debt market face decreased leverage and investment, accompanied by decreased bank debt, compared to firms with access. Considering that firms without access to the public debt market are more dependent on banks for their debt and are likely to have closer relationships with banks than those with access, it is intriguing that bank-dependent firms face reduced debt supplies from banks compared to other firms. Moreover, through investigation of the regression of investments where the interaction term with different debt structures is introduced, it is suggested that differences in debt structure or debt maturity between firms with access to public debt and those without access also play an important role in determining debt and investment and that bank-dependent firms faced more underinvestment or uncertainty after the financial crisis of 2008 than firms with access to the public debt market.","PeriodicalId":375382,"journal":{"name":"26th Australasian Finance & Banking Conference 2013 (Archive)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122067888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Trade Relationships, Indirect Economic Links, and Mergers","authors":"J. Harford, Robert J. Schonlau, J. Stanfield","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2177692","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2177692","url":null,"abstract":"The economic links between firms created by customer and supplier relationships are critical determinants of those firms’ values and actions. We demonstrate that significant trade relationships and indirect economic links incrementally explain which firms are more likely to be involved in acquisitions, which pairs of firms are more likely to merge, and which mergers will have the greatest impact, both on value and in motivating follow-on mergers by rivals. Firms with major trade relationships are significantly less likely to acquire, or be acquired by, firms that do not share in those relationships. The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2938. This paper was accepted by Lauren Cohen, finance.","PeriodicalId":375382,"journal":{"name":"26th Australasian Finance & Banking Conference 2013 (Archive)","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129173807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Deregulation, Competition and Merger Activity in the U.S. Telecommunications Industry","authors":"Kevin Okoeguale","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2049491","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2049491","url":null,"abstract":"Using the 1996 Telecommunications Act as a natural experiment, I examine the role of competition in “how” economic shocks drive industry-level clustering of merger activity and “who buys whom?” In the telecom industry, deregulation opened both the local and long-distance markets to competition from new communication technologies, driving significant increases in IPO and merger activity. My findings support the view that the increase in merger activity following the 1996 deregulation was an efficiency-improving restructuring response to increased competition from deregulation and technological change, and not to increased misvaluation. The economic shocks from deregulation and technological change drive merger activity by increasing industry competition. I find no significant relationship between the level of merger activity and stock market misvaluation. I find evidence systematically relating telecom firms’ performance and merger characteristics; pre-1996 deregulation levels of efficiency and leverage show up as important determinants of an incumbents’ survival and/or merger fate; the more efficient and less leveraged incumbents are more likely to be the acquirers than the targets in mergers involving two incumbents.","PeriodicalId":375382,"journal":{"name":"26th Australasian Finance & Banking Conference 2013 (Archive)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125675773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Information Content of the Amihud Ratio for Intraday Liquidity Forecasting","authors":"Thibaut Moyaert","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2130486","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2130486","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims at forecasting periods of intraday low execution price uncertainty. We compute an adjusted Amihud illiquidity ratio to detect those periods in the stock market. Our methodology is built around a fixed volume event chart and presents a threefold advantage. First, we solve the non linearity issue of the widely used Amihud ratio. Second, we consider liquidity as a trade size specific concept and bypass optimal sampling frequency issues. Third, we turn liquidity into a volatility proxy, which allows us to transpose the extensive volatility forecasting literature into the liquidity framework. We outline some predictable patterns that statistically outperform a random walk model. We also provide an illustration of execution improvement strategy that outperforms a naive strategy. Overall, we found that the best time to trade for patient traders is towards the end of the continuous trading session.","PeriodicalId":375382,"journal":{"name":"26th Australasian Finance & Banking Conference 2013 (Archive)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117303528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Robustness of Distance-to-Default","authors":"Cathrine Jessen, D. Lando","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2311228","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2311228","url":null,"abstract":"Distance-to-default (DD) is a measure of default risk derived from observed stock prices and book leverage using the structural credit risk model of Merton (1974). Despite the simplifying assumptions that underlie its derivation, DD has proven empirically to be a strong predictor of default. We use simulations to show that the empirical success of DD may well be a result of its strong robustness to model misspecifications. We consider a number of deviations from the Merton model which involve different asset value dynamics and different default triggering mechanisms. We show that, in general, DD is successful in ranking firms’ default probabilities, even if the underlying model assumptions are altered. A possibility of large jumps in asset value or stochastic volatility challenge the robustness of DD. We propose a volatility adjustment of the distance-to-default measure that significantly improves the ranking of firms with stochastic volatility, but this measure is less robust to model misspecifications than DD.","PeriodicalId":375382,"journal":{"name":"26th Australasian Finance & Banking Conference 2013 (Archive)","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128973920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Credible Reforms and Stock Return Volatility: Evidence from Privatization","authors":"J. Cosset, Hyacinthe Y. Somé, Pascale Valéry","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2312499","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2312499","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we investigate how privatization affects stock return volatility. We show that privatization is related to volatility via political risk. In particular, a privatization program that is maintained over time signals credibility, which reduces political risk and in turn volatility. We further show that privatization is associated with lower idiosyncratic volatility mainly among developed markets, while it is associated with lower systematic volatility in developing markets. Additional tests suggest that the reduction in volatility is greater when privatization sales are carried out through the stock market than when they are carried out through asset sales.","PeriodicalId":375382,"journal":{"name":"26th Australasian Finance & Banking Conference 2013 (Archive)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116981501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Managerial Replacements in Mutual Fund Families","authors":"J. Parwada, Eric K. M. Tan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2304585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2304585","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines managerial replacements made by mutual fund families. Using a unique hand-collected dataset of 5,242 managerial replacement events from 1990 to 2011, this study finds fund’s performance and flow ranking at the fund family level form the basis of mutual fund families' disciplinary decisions. Specifically, mutual fund families are more likely to replace fund managers ranked at the bottom of fund families in terms of performance and flows. While this study does not observe any spillover effect of replacing bottom performing managers, the replacement of top performing managers generates negative spillover (both performance and flows) effects on other funds in the family. In further tests, this study finds managerial replacements to be more prevalent in larger fund families and families with high turnover ratios. Finally, the replacement of bottom performing managers explain future families’ performance and money flows, suggesting that there is economic value attached to the monitoring activities of mutual fund families.","PeriodicalId":375382,"journal":{"name":"26th Australasian Finance & Banking Conference 2013 (Archive)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114163490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}