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ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic)最新文献

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The Problems and Promise of Entrepreneurial Partnerships: Decision Making, Overconfidence, and Learning in Founding Teams 创业伙伴关系的问题和前景:创始团队中的决策、过度自信和学习
ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.5465/amr.2019.0119
John S. Chen, Daniel W. Elfenbein, Hart E. Posen, M. Wang
{"title":"The Problems and Promise of Entrepreneurial Partnerships: Decision Making, Overconfidence, and Learning in Founding Teams","authors":"John S. Chen, Daniel W. Elfenbein, Hart E. Posen, M. Wang","doi":"10.5465/amr.2019.0119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2019.0119","url":null,"abstract":"How should decision-making be organized in entrepreneurial teams when founders exhibit confidence biases? New ventures are commonly founded by teams of entrepreneurs, and consequently, they must im...","PeriodicalId":372791,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic)","volume":"186 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133970873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Crowdfunding and Demand Uncertainty 众筹和需求不确定性
ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2020-04-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3578402
Christoph Scheuch
{"title":"Crowdfunding and Demand Uncertainty","authors":"Christoph Scheuch","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3578402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3578402","url":null,"abstract":"Reward-based crowdfunding allows entrepreneurs to sell claims on future products to finance investments and, at the same time, to generate demand information that benefits screening for viable projects. I characterize the profit-maximizing crowdfunding mechanism when the entrepreneur knows neither the number of consumers who positively value the product, nor their reservation prices. The entrepreneur can finance all viable projects by committing to prices that decrease in the number of pledgers, which grants consumers with high reservation prices information rents. However, if these information rents are large, then the entrepreneur prefers fixed high prices that lead to underinvestment.","PeriodicalId":372791,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133150431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Employment Responds to Changes in Assets at US Banks and Credit Unions 就业如何应对美国银行和信用合作社的资产变化
ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2018-02-13 DOI: 10.5947/jeod.2017.09
Derek C. Jones, Jeffrey Pliskin, Matthew Poterba
{"title":"How Employment Responds to Changes in Assets at US Banks and Credit Unions","authors":"Derek C. Jones, Jeffrey Pliskin, Matthew Poterba","doi":"10.5947/jeod.2017.09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5947/jeod.2017.09","url":null,"abstract":"While US credit unions have one of the highest market penetration rates in the world (more than 40 per cent), they have been rarely investigated by economists. In this study, we use new panel data to provide the first evidence of how US commercial banks and credit unions adjust their employment levels to output shocks. Monitoring by cooperative members leads us to expect that asset quality and growth will differ between coops and investor owned firms. The role of employee-members leads us to predict variation in employment adjustment when assets rise and fall. We find differing employment adjustment responses in reaction to growing versus shrinking assets and across types of firm. Some of our findings point to greater employment resiliency in credit unions. Our results complement findings from studies of workers cooperatives and firms with employee ownership and thus expand the range of alternative institutional arrangements for which evidence exists for greater employment resiliency compared to investor-owned firms (IOFs). Our findings, as does work by others suggest that credit unions and cooperatives were more resilient during the Great recession than IOFs and also point to the economic potential of credit unions and cooperatives compared to IOFs.","PeriodicalId":372791,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123647875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Uncertainty, Asset Specificity, and Entrepreneurial Adaptation 不确定性、资产专用性与企业适应
ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2015-06-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3013157
Timothy Terrell
{"title":"Uncertainty, Asset Specificity, and Entrepreneurial Adaptation","authors":"Timothy Terrell","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3013157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3013157","url":null,"abstract":"Entrepreneurs’ exposure to economic uncertainty from regulation, monetary policy, and taxation is exacerbated by the inflexibility of capital asset commitments. Entrepreneurs adapt to uncertainty by reducing asset specificity. While the mainstream approach tends to focus on reduced aggregate investment resulting from uncertainty, the effects cannot be fully comprehended without appreciating the heterogeneity of the capital structure. Entrepreneurial adaptations, such as increasing the proportion of precautionary assets, reduce the roundaboutness of the production process, mitigating uncertainty but reducing economic growth. The emphases of the Austrian school on entrepreneurial judgment and heterogeneous capital clarify the connection between uncertainty and economic growth.","PeriodicalId":372791,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic)","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133432924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Risks of Dotcom Companies 网络公司的风险
ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2011-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2229159
T. Vasilyeva
{"title":"Risks of Dotcom Companies","authors":"T. Vasilyeva","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2229159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2229159","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the risks related to the functioning of dotcom companies applying modern information technologies in their business activity. The risk management is reviewed in terms of special risks of e-projects development, dotcom companies’ web-sites promotion risks, e-shops sellers’ risks and e-buyers’ risks. We give the definition for every risk group, the forms of risks indications and possible ways of reduction of risks occurrence.","PeriodicalId":372791,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114306996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Private Risk Premium and Aggregate Uncertainty in the Model of Uninsurable Investment Risk 不可保投资风险模型中的私人风险溢价与总不确定性
ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2007-11-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1077212
S. Fujita, Francisco Covas
{"title":"Private Risk Premium and Aggregate Uncertainty in the Model of Uninsurable Investment Risk","authors":"S. Fujita, Francisco Covas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1077212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1077212","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies cyclical properties of the private risk premium in a model where a continuum of heterogeneous entrepreneurs are subject to aggregate as well as idiosyncratic risks, both of which are assumed to be highly persistent. The calibrated model matches highly skewed wealth and income distributions of entrepreneurs found in the Survey of Consumer Finances. The authors provide an accurate numerical solution to the model even though the model is shown to exhibit serious nonlinearities that are absent in incomplete market models with idiosyncratic labor income risk. The model is able to generate the aggregate private risk premium of 2-3 percent and the low risk-free rate. However, it generates very little variation in these variables over the business cycle, suggesting that the model lacks the ability to amplify aggregate shocks. ; Superseded by Working Paper 11-18","PeriodicalId":372791,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic)","volume":"47 26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124243564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Modeling Credit Risk for Smes: Evidence from the Us Market 中小企业信用风险建模:来自美国市场的证据
ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2005-12-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.872336
E. Altman, G. Sabato
{"title":"Modeling Credit Risk for Smes: Evidence from the Us Market","authors":"E. Altman, G. Sabato","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.872336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.872336","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractConsidering the fundamental role played by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in the economy of many countries and the considerable attention placed on SMEs in the new Basel Capital Accord, we develop a distress prediction model specifically for the SME sector and to analyze its effectiveness compared to a generic corporate model. The behavior of financial measures for SMEs is analyzed and the most significant variables in predicting the entities' credit worthiness are selected in order to construct a default prediction model. Using a logit regression technique on a panel of over 2,000 US firms (with sales less than $65 million) over the period 1994–2002, we develop a one-year default prediction model. This model has an out of sample prediction power which is almost 30 percent higher than a generic corporate model. An associated objective is to observe our model's ability to lower bank capital requirements considering the new Basel Capital Accord's rules for SMEs.","PeriodicalId":372791,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic)","volume":"108 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124088274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 165
Informed Investors and the Financing of Entrepreneurial Projects 知情投资者与创业项目融资
ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.263162
Mark J. Garmaise
{"title":"Informed Investors and the Financing of Entrepreneurial Projects","authors":"Mark J. Garmaise","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.263162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.263162","url":null,"abstract":"We consider a model of the financing of a small-business venture in which it is presumed that outside investors have greater expertise in project evaluation than the entrepreneur. We show that entrepreneurs and investors may restrict themselves to debt and junior equity (call option) contracts without loss of efficiency. A \"pecking order\" for new ventures is demonstrated, in which entrepreneurs prefer to be financed by junior equity rather than by debt. In addition, the model correctly predicts that large and successful venture-capital firms are likelier to hold debt stakes and makes untested predictions about the lending patterns of specialist banks.","PeriodicalId":372791,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic)","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131797182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 110
Entrepreneurial Activity, Risk, and the Business Cycle 创业活动、风险和商业周期
ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 2000-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.250060
A. Rampini
{"title":"Entrepreneurial Activity, Risk, and the Business Cycle","authors":"A. Rampini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.250060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.250060","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes a model in which the risk associated with entrepreneurial activity implies that the amount of such activity is procyclical and results in amplification and intertemporal propagation of productivity shocks. In the model risk averse agents choose between a riskless project and a risky project with higher expected output ('the entrepreneurial activity'). Agents who become entrepreneurs need to bear part of the project-specific risk for incentive reasons. More agents become entrepreneurs when productivity is high, because agents are more willing to bear risk and need to bear less risk for incentive reasons. Furthermore, cross-sectional heterogeneity can be countercyclical.","PeriodicalId":372791,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129590107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 182
Anticipation, Asymmetric Information and the Announcement Effect of Greek Seasoned Equity Offerings 预期、信息不对称与希腊老练股票发行的公告效应
ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic) Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1121655
Susanne Espenlaub, Georgia Siougle, N. Strong
{"title":"Anticipation, Asymmetric Information and the Announcement Effect of Greek Seasoned Equity Offerings","authors":"Susanne Espenlaub, Georgia Siougle, N. Strong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1121655","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1121655","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate rights issues on the Athens Stock Exchange. Across 129 issues during 1992-99, we find a significant announcement effect of 2%. Further examination shows that firms were more likely to issue stock after large price run-ups, after recent earnings announcements, to lower uncertainty over their market value, and if they had not issued equity in the two years before the issue; smaller, more highly leveraged firms were also more likely to issue equity. We find no evidence that investors could anticipate issues. Both conditional and unconditional event study methodologies show that valuation uncertainty is the only variable explaining announcement period returns.","PeriodicalId":372791,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Uncertainty (Sub-Topic)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122332076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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