{"title":"Public Finances in the XXI Century: Limitations, Challenges and Directions of Reforms in Finland","authors":"Anne Brunila","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2109513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2109513","url":null,"abstract":"The paper by Anne Brunila is based on the report of a working group set up by the Finnish Economic Council with the task “to evaluate the operating framework of the public sector in Finland, the long-term challenges and pressures for change, and to present different policy options to ensure that the public sector will be able to carry out and develop its main welfare functions in a sustainable manner”. The paper describes the challenges faced by the Finnish welfare system: population ageing, increasing number of early retirements and declining labour force participation. Long-term projections based on generational accounting are presented to assess the extent of the ensuing financing pressures. The policy options to address such pressures are discussed and the need for measures aimed at raising labour force participation and productivity is stressed. In addition to removing the incentives for early retirement and the disincentives to work longer, the author argues that a marked reduction of the tax burden targeted on labour would be necessary. Taking into account the objectives set in the Stability and Growth Pact, this tax reduction in turn requires savings in government expenditure.","PeriodicalId":341123,"journal":{"name":"2000 Fiscal Sustainability Conference (Archive)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130633499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Towards a Sustainable and Job-Oriented Pension System in Finland","authors":"Urpo Hautala, J. Tuukkanen","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2109514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2109514","url":null,"abstract":"The decline in labour force due to ageing in the Finnish economy is also at the core of the analysis by Urpo Hautala and Jorma Tuukkanen. The authors' starting point is to note that while a social security system with wide coverage, high benefits and little incentive to work can cause a substantial loss in terms of labour force and production, a properly tuned system can bolster sustainable economic growth and welfare. Hautala and Tukkanen propose a mixed pension system composed of two tiers: an actuarial defined-benefit pension and a defined-contribution account pension. They argue that the new system would provide a suitable trade-off between insurance that balances out risk (defined-benefit) and saving (defined contribution), increasing personal responsibility and encouraging work. The ensuing reduction in expenditure would avoid the increase in the tax burden that would otherwise be necessary to avoid debt accumulation.","PeriodicalId":341123,"journal":{"name":"2000 Fiscal Sustainability Conference (Archive)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132263187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Review of Methods with a View to EMU","authors":"Fabrizio Balassone, D. Franco","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2109377","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2109377","url":null,"abstract":"Balassone and Franco review the literature on fiscal sustainability in order to examine the comparative advantages and disadvantages of different methodologies and indicators and to highlight the areas in which more research effort is still needed. They contrast the intuitive character of the concept of sustainability with the analytical and operational difficulties met with when trying to arrive at a rigorous definition. On the one hand, the literature has not produced a unique definition of sustainability; furthermore, the problem has only been dealt with in a partial equilibrium framework. On the other hand, the statistical definition of the main variables to be used for the assessment of sustainability is not uncontroversial; moreover, as the assessment is based on long-term projections, it is necessarily subject to wide margins of error.Balassone and Franco also point out that, theoretical issues notwithstanding, the Treaty of Maastricht and the Stability and Growth Pact set fiscal rules which, if complied with, ensure sustainability according to any definition adopted. Techniques developed for the analysis of sustainability can therefore be used for the assessment of prospective compliance with such rules, a crucial task for both policy evaluation and timely corrective intervention. In re-examining the pros and cons of available indicators, their paper categorises the studies on the assessment of sustainability into two main strands: those testing for the sustainability of past policies and those assessing prospective fiscal stances. Among the latter a distinction is drawn between works based on standard national accounting concepts and generational accounting exercises. The paper concludes by stressing the need for further efforts to guide budgetary policy more effectively.","PeriodicalId":341123,"journal":{"name":"2000 Fiscal Sustainability Conference (Archive)","volume":"270 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115834320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Generational Accounting Around the World","authors":"W. Leibfritz","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2109475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2109475","url":null,"abstract":"Willi Leibfritz outlines the purposes and features of generational accounting and reviews the main results of a project applying the technique to 17 countries. In most countries current policies are not sustainable. Future generations would have to pay higher net taxes than current generations. Demographic changes are the main source of the generational imbalances with current public debt playing a significant role in some countries. The paper includes estimates about the alternative expenditure cuts or revenue increases required for correcting the imbalances. It also argues that governments would alleviate the adjustment by reducing debt and deficit levels before the peak of population ageing. Leibfritz concludes with some suggestions for policy and methodological improvements. He notes that the availability of information about the implications of ageing and of alternative policy reactions is a precondition for the implementation of appropriate policies and that the computation of generational accounts on a regular basis can contribute to improve the decision making process. He suggests that differences from previous estimates should be thoroughly explained and that the base year data should be adjusted to remove the effects of cyclical or temporary factors. He also advises to complement the indicator of intergenerational imbalances with the debt to GDP ratio, which is more familiar to policy-makers.","PeriodicalId":341123,"journal":{"name":"2000 Fiscal Sustainability Conference (Archive)","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117009613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"'Close to Balance or in Surplus': A Methodology to Calculate Fiscal Benchmarks","authors":"P. Hiebert, M. Rostagno","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2109362","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2109362","url":null,"abstract":"Paul Hiebert and Massimo Rostagno explore the analytical links between EMU fiscal rules and the theory of fiscal sustainability with a focus on the transition to the equilibrium debt to GDP ratios implied by such rules. The authors argue that such a transition cannot be satisfactorily managed by simply prescribing strict adherence to the safety margins computed by the European Commission for the cyclically adjusted budgets of EMU member countries. This strategy may induce distortions in the way fiscal quantities respond to economic developments. They also point out that indicators like the tax-gap, while useful in signalling a prospective imbalance, do not translate automatically into policy prescriptions. Hiebert and Rostagno therefore explore the properties of a policy rule whereby fiscal variables are adjusted according to the distance between the current and the targeted fiscal position and find that this allows a flexible pattern of fiscal response to both cyclical and structural changes.","PeriodicalId":341123,"journal":{"name":"2000 Fiscal Sustainability Conference (Archive)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126616922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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