{"title":"What Information Drives Asset Prices?","authors":"Anish Ghosh, G. Constantinides","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3015833","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3015833","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We contribute to identifying proxies for the information set of investors in financial markets. We show that the marketwide price-dividend ratio highly correlates with inflation and labor market variables that also forecast consumption, dividend, and GDP growth, but not with aggregate consumption or GDP growth. Our model with learning from inflation and wage earnings rationalizes the moments of consumption and dividend growth, market return, the price-dividend ratio, real and nominal term structures, the low predictive power of the price-dividend ratio for consumption and dividends, and the dynamics of the price-dividend ratio, unlike a nested model with learning from consumption alone. (JEL E3, G12, G14)\u0000 Received March 10, 2020; editorial decision February 25, 2021 by Editor: Nikolai Roussanov. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.","PeriodicalId":318284,"journal":{"name":"Chicago Booth Fama-Miller: Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125595572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Interest Rate Volatility and Risk Management: Evidence from CBOE Treasury Options","authors":"Raphael N. Markellos, Dimitris Psychoyios","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1585744","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1585744","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates US Treasury market volatility and develops new ways of dealing with the underlying interest rate volatility risk. We adopt an innovative approach which is based on a class of model-free interest rate volatility (VXI) indices we derive from options traded on the CBOE. The empirical analysis indicates substantial interest rate volatility risk for medium-term instruments which declines to the levels of the equity market only as the tenor increases to 30 years. We show that this risk appears to be priced in the market and has a significant time-varying relationship with equity volatility risk. US Treasury market volatility is appealing from an investment diversification perspective since the VXI indices are negatively correlated with the levels of interest rates and of equity market implied volatility indices, respectively. Although VXI indices are affected by macroeconomic and monetary news, they are only partially spanned by information contained in the yield curve. Motivated by our results on the magnitude and the nature of interest rate volatility risk and by the phenomenal recent growth of the equity volatility derivative market, we propose the use of our VXI indices as benchmarks for monitoring, securitizing, managing and trading interest rate volatility risk. As a first step in this direction, we describe a framework of one-factor equilibrium models for pricing VXI futures and options on the basis of empirically favored mean-reverting jump-diffusions.","PeriodicalId":318284,"journal":{"name":"Chicago Booth Fama-Miller: Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134639068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Constantinides, Michal Czerwonko, J. Jackwerth, Stylianos Perrakis
{"title":"Are Options on Index Futures Profitable for Risk Averse Investors‘ Empirical Evidence","authors":"G. Constantinides, Michal Czerwonko, J. Jackwerth, Stylianos Perrakis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1282085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1282085","url":null,"abstract":"American call and put options on the S&P 500 index futures that violate the stochastic dominance bounds of Constantinides and Perrakis (2007) over 1983-2006 are identified as potentially profitable investment opportunities. Call bid prices more frequently violate their upper bound than put bid prices do, while evidence of underpriced calls and puts over this period is scant. In out-of-sample tests, the inclusion of short positions in such overpriced calls, puts, and, particularly, straddles in the market portfolio is shown to increase the expected utility of any risk averse investor and also increase the Sharpe ratio, net of transaction costs and bid-ask spreads. The results are strongly supportive of mispricing. (JEL G11, G13, G14)","PeriodicalId":318284,"journal":{"name":"Chicago Booth Fama-Miller: Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121907743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Using Economic Theory to Build Optimal Portfolios","authors":"Thomas Chevrier, R. McCulloch","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1126596","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1126596","url":null,"abstract":"Given expected returns and return covariances, portfolio weights are known in closed form in a mean-variance framework. The real difficulty is in estimating these parameters. Using recent advances in Bayesian techniques, we show how investors can incorporate any prior information for optimal portfolio selection. We apply our method to 27 domestic and international data sets. We find that our tangency portfolios have three essential and attractive features. i) They perform better in terms of out-of-sample Sharpe ratio. ii) Their weights are guaranteed to be economically \"reasonable\": positive, stable, and without extravagant position in any asset. iii) Turnover is very low.","PeriodicalId":318284,"journal":{"name":"Chicago Booth Fama-Miller: Asset Pricing (Topic)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115230744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}