{"title":"How Social Media Drove the 2016 US Presidential Election: A Longitudinal Topic and Platform Analysis","authors":"Raoul V. Kübler, Koen Pauwels, Kai Manke","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3661846","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3661846","url":null,"abstract":"To what extent did external events and news versus the candidates’ own actions drive the 2016 election outcome? And were candidates misled if they focused on traditional market research versus the newer probabilistic polls? Based on the dynamic political will formation framework, the authors address these questions with a national daily data set combining polling, donations and TV advertising data with social media interactions to all candidates’ posts of the two candidates on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Persistence modeling reveals that donations followed rather than drove the candidates’ polls. The probabilistic polls show a different impact of candidate ads and statements, news coverage and fake news than do the traditional polls. TV ads on the economy or gun control, and on terror threats were most effective for respectively Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Topics matter, as fake news about a candidate hurtsher chances on one topic, but benefits her on another topic. Moreover, platforms matter: Clinton’s chances benefited from promoting women issues on Instagram, but declined from doing so on Twitter. Her moral language on Fairness Vice and social media users’ on Authority Virtue made voters less likely to vote for her, but more likely to share fake news about her and to talk positively about Trump. While news coverage had minimal impact, fake news on Clinton’s emails, shared on her Facebook page, greatly damaged her election chances. This fake news impact was most pronounced for seniors, Hispanics and high earners – demographics who moved towards Trump in the last weeks before the election. The authors draw lessons from the past election to advise where, when and how to drive the political conversation.","PeriodicalId":315181,"journal":{"name":"CommRN: Campaign Analysis (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125786247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pre-Primary News Coverage of the 2016 Presidential Race: Trump's Rise, Sanders' Emergence, Clinton's Struggle","authors":"T. Patterson","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2798258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2798258","url":null,"abstract":"What's the best predictor of which candidate will win the presidential nomination? The winner of the Iowa caucus? The winner of the New Hampshire primary? Actually neither is as good an indicator as the winner of what political scientists call \"the invisible primary\"--the period before a single primary or caucus vote is cast. A fast start in Iowa or New Hampshire is important. A candidate with a poor showing in both states is in trouble. Voters aren't interested, donors aren't interested, and reporters aren't interested in a candidate who finishes at the back of the pack. Yet, more often than not, the winner in Iowa has lost in New Hampshire. Since 1980, of the twelve open nominating races--those without an incumbent president seeking reelection--only Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 won both contests. In 1992, the eventual Democratic nominee, Bill Clinton, lost both, though he ran well enough in the two states to be seen as a viable candidate.","PeriodicalId":315181,"journal":{"name":"CommRN: Campaign Analysis (Topic)","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127078708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"American and Russian 'Victory' Discourse: A Conflict of Cultures","authors":"A. Plisetskaya","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2370280","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2370280","url":null,"abstract":"This article focuses on the presidential rhetoric of Russian and American leaders at the end of their latest campaigns, taking their victory speeches given immediately after winning their respective elections as examples. The comparative cross-cultural research presented in this study includes cognitive, corpus, and rhetorical approaches and is carried out within the framework of critical discourse analysis. The interconnection between language, culture and politics is evident through metaphors used by national leaders. The metaphor THE RUSSIAN NATION IS AT WAR reconstructed in President Putin’s victory speech is quite different from the metaphor THE AMERICAN NATION IS ONE FAMILY found in President Obama’s victory speech. Archetypal metaphors found in both speeches reflect public values that turn out to be highly contrastive and explain some cultural and political differences between the great powers.","PeriodicalId":315181,"journal":{"name":"CommRN: Campaign Analysis (Topic)","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134474267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}