{"title":"Coercive Threats and Reputation-Building in International Crises","authors":"Todd S Sechser","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2322874","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2322874","url":null,"abstract":"When do states defend their reputations? States sometimes pay heavy costs to protect their reputations, but other times willingly take actions that could tarnish them. What accounts for the difference? This paper investigates the sources of reputation-building behavior in the context of coercive diplomacy. It argues that states are more likely to resist aggressors that pose a high risk of initiating further challenges. Specifically, states confronting adversaries which are geographically close, have a history of aggression, or possess the ability to project power -- all risk factors for future challenges -- are more likely to invest in their reputations by resisting coercive threats. Using a dataset of more than 200 coercive threats, empirical tests find support for this logic. The results shed new light on the causes of reputation-building behavior and add an important element to our understanding of coercion in international politics.","PeriodicalId":313914,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interstate Conflict (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121211896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Geography of Inter-State Resource Wars","authors":"F. Caselli, M. Morelli, D. Rohner","doi":"10.3386/W18978","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W18978","url":null,"abstract":"We establish a theoretical as well as empirical framework to assess the role of resource endowments and their geographic location for inter-State conflict. The main predictions of the theory are that conflict tends to be more likely when at least one country has natural resources; when the resources in the resource-endowed country are closer to the border; and, in the case where both countries have natural resources, when the resources are located asymmetrically vis-a-vis the border. We test these predictions on a novel dataset featuring oilfield distances from bilateral borders. The empirical analysis shows that the presence and location of oil are significant and quantitatively important predictors of inter-State conflicts after WW2.","PeriodicalId":313914,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interstate Conflict (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133214516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Evaluating Economic Warfare: Lessons from Efforts to Suppress the Afghan Opium Trade","authors":"Jeffrey Clemens","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2201172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2201172","url":null,"abstract":"In the mid-2000s, U.S. anti-opium policy intensified with a goal of reducing the resources available to Afghan insurgents. To achieve this objective, I show that opium suppression efforts must accurately distinguish between insurgent and non-insurgent suppliers. The required level of accuracy will be particularly high if demand for opium is inelastic and if the insurgents’ initial market share is large. Empirically, I show that demand for Afghan opium is relatively inelastic, that the market share of Taliban-heavy areas is large, and that enforcement has primarily impacted non-Taliban territory. Consequently, anti-opium efforts have significantly increased the drug-trade resources flowing to the Taliban.","PeriodicalId":313914,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interstate Conflict (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134574480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Why the Prince Consort Was Right: Nationalism, Economic Development, and Violence, 1800-2000","authors":"C. Mosk","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1969073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1969073","url":null,"abstract":"A common belief is that nationalism is a major source of violence. The present paper disputes this contention. It argues that the European Enlightenment spawned two phenomena that have revolutionized the world: the nation-state and the Industrial Enlightenment. The two are interconnected in the sense that both are predicated on the premise that the creative talents and voice of the masses should prevail, realizing progress in the long-run. Successful nation-state projects achieve these ends by expanding the scope of infrastructure (human capital enhancing, physical and financial). As a result domestic violence rates plummet. At the same time the technological progress unleashed by the Industrial Enlightenment drives down the relative price of exerting military force in successful nation-states. The result is a huge gap in military potential between nation-states and states that are not yet nation-states. The existence of this gap promotes intrusion in the domestic affairs of traditional states by nation-states, ultimately leading to the conversion of states into nation-states. For this reason the world witnessed a massive unleashing of international violence in the period 1914-75, the eponymous Hemoclysm. However at its conclusion the nation-state system has spread globally. Moreover technological progress in the field of military affairs has so transformed warfare that it has become less and less useful as a tool for managing international affairs. This state of affairs has ushered in the long peace and a massive expansion of international trade.","PeriodicalId":313914,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interstate Conflict (Topic)","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125505537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Power Politics in the Central Asian Region: The Interests of the US, Europe and China","authors":"Rubab Hasan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1674247","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1674247","url":null,"abstract":"In 1904, Halford Mackinder called the Eurasian steppes “the heartland of the world”. Owing to the natural resources and the strategic location of the region, Russia, China, the US and the European powers have entered into an intense contest for influence in the region. This power play is sometimes referred as the “new Great Game” bringing back memories of the “Great Game” between the Russian and British empires for control over the region extending from Afghanistan to Central Asia.","PeriodicalId":313914,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interstate Conflict (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125119637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Illusion of Anarchy: Chaos, Complexity and the Origins of World War One","authors":"Dylan Kissane","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1621514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1621514","url":null,"abstract":"In physics, biology and meteorology, scientists have come to understand that the natural systems they study can be extremely sensitive to small events. The so-called ‘butterfly effect’ is testament to such seemingly insignificant events having significant implications for the wider system. Such knowledge has led to an interest in the natural sciences in both chaotic and complex systems and, in turn, has led to social scientists searching for parallels in the systems they examine. However, within the field of international relations theory, there has been little attempt to move towards such new understandings and away from a fundamental belief in anarchy as the defining feature of international politics. This paper offers a critique of this almost-discipline wide stance, drawing on inter-disciplinary approach and suggesting that in the example of the origins of World War One there exists evidence for an international system that is something other than anarchical.","PeriodicalId":313914,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interstate Conflict (Topic)","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127147454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Weak States and Global Threats: Assessing Evidence of Spillovers","authors":"Stewart Patrick","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.984057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.984057","url":null,"abstract":"A key motivation behind recent donor attention and financial resources devoted to developing countries is the presumed connection between weak and failing states, on the one hand, and a variety of transnational threats, on the other. Indeed, it has become conventional wisdom that poorly performing states generate multiple cross-border “spillovers,” including terrorism, weapons proliferation, organized crime, regional instability, global pandemics, and energy insecurity. What is striking is how little empirical evidence underpins such sweeping assertions. A closer look suggests that the connection between state weakness and global threats is less clear and more variable than typically assumed. Both the type and extent of “spillovers” depend in part on whether the weakness in question is a function of state capacity, will, or a combination of the two. Moreover, a preliminary review suggests that some trans-border threats are more likely to emerge not from the weakest states but from stronger states that possess narrower but critical gaps in capacity and will. Crafting an effective U.S. and international strategy towards weak states and the cross-border spillovers they sometimes generate will depend on a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms linking these two sets of phenomena. The challenge for analysts and policymakers will be to get greater clarity about which states are responsible for which threats and design development and other external interventions accordingly. This working paper represents an initial foray in this direction, suggesting avenues for future research and policy development.","PeriodicalId":313914,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interstate Conflict (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123982153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}