{"title":"Expectations of incidence, severity, and yield loss.","authors":"N. Kalaitzandonakes, J. Kaufman, K. Zahringer","doi":"10.1079/9781780648088.0064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1079/9781780648088.0064","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 Because little is known about farmers' expectations in soyabean disease control, multiple surveys were conducted to discover them. These surveys were carried out at the Economics and Management of Agrobiotechnology Centre at the University of Missouri, Missouri, USA. Farmers' expectations were examined of the potential presence and impact of disease, as discussed in this chapter. Discussions focus on seedling disease and mid-season root rots, specifically Phytophthora root rot, to gain sufficient detail and insight. Because soyabean disease may not occur in every year and in every field, the surveys began by measuring farmers' perceptions of the following: (i) disease incidence: the frequency at which diseases are present in their fields, (ii) disease severity: the proportion of their fields that is likely to be affected when the disease is present, and (iii) yield loss: the amount of production that is likely to be lost when the disease is present. Together, these three indicators provide a detailed view of the expected damage from disease in a farmer's fields. Using the same indicators, the consistency of farmers' expectations against alternative measures of the true underlying conditions were also evaluated. On average, roughly one-third of all soyabean farmers experience a problem once every 5 years and on only a portion of their acreage. Nevertheless, when these rates are extrapolated to the national level, the value of the loss can be quite large. Broad agreement was found among reported incidence, severity, and yield loss among farmers, Certified Crop Advisers, and state plant pathologists, which lends strong credence to the accuracy of farmers' subjective expectations and disease management decisions.","PeriodicalId":308282,"journal":{"name":"The economics of soybean disease control","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124769239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Soybeans: the emergence of a global crop.","authors":"N. Kalaitzandonakes, J. Kaufman, K. Zahringer","doi":"10.1079/9781780648088.0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1079/9781780648088.0001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 This chapter discusses the history, production, products and exports, consumption and imports, as well as future growth in demand and supply, of soyabean. The economics of disease control in soyabean production is also examined. In particular, the chapter analyses how farmers decide whether to expend resources to protect their soyabeans from disease, how farmers choose among alternative disease control methods, how farmers decide whether to adopt new disease control practices, how farmers' decisions are linked with the research and development strategies of upstream industries that determine the future solutions for disease control and associated losses, and, finally, how consumers and societies are affected by such decisions and strategies.","PeriodicalId":308282,"journal":{"name":"The economics of soybean disease control","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117280878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Soybean disease and production losses.","authors":"N. Kalaitzandonakes, J. Kaufman, K. Zahringer","doi":"10.1079/9781780648088.0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1079/9781780648088.0013","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 To gain some perspective on the relative magnitude of crop loss due to disease, this chapter first takes a brief look at the impact of weeds and animal pests (focusing on insect pests) on soyabean production. Then, soyabean production losses to pathogens in the USA and the world are discussed, as well as the loss variability and the conditioning effects of the environment. The total pest impact is considerable: an estimated 25-40% of agricultural production is lost to pests each year worldwide, despite control efforts. Estimating the production lost to diseases is inherently more challenging due to their diversity. Pathogens display significant differences in basic biology and physiology, mode of attack, preferred environmental conditions, and other characteristics. It is appropriate in many contexts to speak of weeds or insects in the aggregate; it is much less so for pathogens. There is much variation in disease incidence, severity, and the resulting yield loss. This variability plays out across seasons and geographies. Overall, it is estimated that 10-20% of global soyabean production is lost to disease each year.","PeriodicalId":308282,"journal":{"name":"The economics of soybean disease control","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129631920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Disease control methods and effectiveness.","authors":"N. Kalaitzandonakes, J. Kaufman, K. Zahringer","doi":"10.1079/9781780648088.0079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1079/9781780648088.0079","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 As little is known about the practices that soyabean farmers use to control disease on their farm or about their expectations of relative effectiveness, surveys were used to infer them. Discussions focus on seedling disease and mid-season root rots (caused by oomycetes) to obtain sufficient detail and insight. The surveys begin by reviewing the range of disease management options available to soyabean farmers, the main mechanisms by which they control disease, and the factors that condition their effectiveness. Farmers have three general categories of disease control methods available to them: agronomic practices, chemical controls, and genetic resistance in the seed. Current agronomic practices, such as conservation tillage and early planting, have cost-efficiencies and yield benefits that appear to far outweigh, for most farmers, whatever negative impact they might have on disease incidence and severity. Pre-emptive disease control practices, such as the use of genetic resistance and fungicide seed treatments, are more broadly used and are expected to be effective by most farmers, including many with no recent disease incidence experience. Responsive control practices are used only in limited ways. Risk management practices, such as crop insurance and replant warranties, can condition farmer disease management decision making and involve considerations that go beyond disease pathogen control. Despite facing extreme uncertainty, soyabean farmers, as a group, appear capable of forming reliable expectations about disease incidence, severity, and yield loss, as well as about the means to control the disease. For their management decisions, farmers rely on many different information sources, both private and public.","PeriodicalId":308282,"journal":{"name":"The economics of soybean disease control","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126044173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Supply of inputs for disease control.","authors":"N. Kalaitzandonakes, J. Kaufman, K. Zahringer","doi":"10.1079/9781780648088.0130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1079/9781780648088.0130","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 When making decisions about disease control in any given growing season, farmers' choices for prevention and treatment are often limited by the decisions of scientists, engineers, and managers made many years in advance. Inputs such as seed treatments and genetic resistance are supplied by commercial crop protection and genetics firms that invest heavily in R&D. The collective economic decisions of such input suppliers shape the supply of inputs for soyabean disease control and are the focus of this chapter. It begins by examining the physical, technical, regulatory, and market conditions that have affected the discovery and development of various chemical controls and genetic resistance traits used to combat soyabean disease. Next, the chapter looks at the existing and future pipelines of such inputs and draw conclusions about the overall supply of disease control inputs available to soyabean farmers now and in the future. It focuses on chemical controls and genetic technologies developed to combat seedling disease and mid-season root rots (caused by oomycetes) when gaining insight from detail is necessary.","PeriodicalId":308282,"journal":{"name":"The economics of soybean disease control","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122421106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An economic framework of disease management.","authors":"N. Kalaitzandonakes, J. Kaufman, K. Zahringer","doi":"10.1079/9781780648088.0053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1079/9781780648088.0053","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 This chapter presents an economic framework of farmers' decision making on disease damage abatement in soyabean production. The farmer's essential disease management task is to determine whether the yield loss from disease in any given field and year will surpass a threshold known as the economic injury level and therefore whether it will be cost-effective to prevent or treat the disease. Coming to this decision is the subject matter of the damage abatement model. Subjective expectations held by farmers about future conditions, including pathogen populations and the damage they cause or the relative effectiveness and cost of various practices that may prevent that damage, guide the decision. Measurement errors, structural uncertainties, and inherent unpredictability in key decision variables make the formulation and updating of subjective expectations a challenge for farmers. Negotiating this thicket of uncertainty is therefore the essential challenge in the economics of disease control in soyabeans.","PeriodicalId":308282,"journal":{"name":"The economics of soybean disease control","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116571182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic benefits from innovation.","authors":"N. Kalaitzandonakes, J. Kaufman, K. Zahringer","doi":"10.1079/9781780648088.0152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1079/9781780648088.0152","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 Most soyabean farmers use chemical fungicides and resistant cultivars to limit yield losses from disease when they expect damage from pathogens to exceed the economic injury level. The suppliers of such inputs actively invest in R&D to regularly improve them by developing more efficient genetic resistance traits or novel active ingredients and improved formulations. This chapter examines who benefits from such innovations and to what extent. To illustrate how large the benefits from innovations in soyabean disease control may be, as well as how such benefits may be distributed among various stakeholder groups, the chapter focuses the empirical analysis on a single innovation - a conjectural genetic trait offering broad resistance against seedling disease and mid-season root rots (caused by oomycetes). The analysis begins with the farmer's decision to adopt the innovation. The chapter abstracts from farmers' expectations on disease incidence and severity, the relative effectiveness of different disease control methods, prices, costs, and other such considerations.","PeriodicalId":308282,"journal":{"name":"The economics of soybean disease control","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122582261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Costs, profits, and farm demand for disease control.","authors":"N. Kalaitzandonakes, J. Kaufman, K. Zahringer","doi":"10.1079/9781780648088.0099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1079/9781780648088.0099","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 This chapter considers how soyabean farmers choose disease control methods for their farms and how their collective choices add up to form the aggregate demand for disease control inputs in soyabean production. Within the context of disease control, soyabean farmers gather information from a variety of sources, including their own direct experience, and form subjective expectations regarding disease incidence and severity, the effectiveness of the various control measures, and market prices. Based on these expectations, they choose the practices that maximize farm profits, or, more broadly, their utility. Even small changes in farmer expectations can shift the optimum choice for disease control. As a result, soyabean farmers must regularly update their expectations to make effective economic decisions in disease control. Actual disease control practices that soyabean farmers use in their fields are found to be consistent with the practices that maximize profits in stylized economic models. Hence, soyabean farmers appear to make effective economic decisions in disease control in spite of incomplete information, uncertainty, and intense computational demands in their profit-maximizing calculus.","PeriodicalId":308282,"journal":{"name":"The economics of soybean disease control","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121256885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Disease incidence, severity, and conditioning factors.","authors":"N. Kalaitzandonakes, J. Kaufman, K. Zahringer","doi":"10.1079/9781780648088.0036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1079/9781780648088.0036","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 To understand how soyabean farmers form expectations about the incidence and severity of disease, how they choose among different control practices, and how they decide when to use them, this chapter focuses its empirical analysis on a specific class of soyabean diseases, i.e. seedling disease and mid-season root rots (caused by oomycetes), and a specific region, the USA. Like all soyabean diseases, their incidence, severity, and impact on yield are variable and difficult to anticipate. Strategies for their control are broadly applicable to other soyabean diseases. As such, insights from this more focused analysis can be generalized to other classes of diseases and other regions. The chapter begins by examining the biological details of the selected diseases (the underlying pathogens, their life cycles, etc.), the factors (environmental and cultural) that condition their incidence and severity in any given year and agricultural field, and the disease control strategies that might be available to soyabean farmers.","PeriodicalId":308282,"journal":{"name":"The economics of soybean disease control","volume":"30 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114124353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Farm demand for innovation in disease control.","authors":"N. Kalaitzandonakes, J. Kaufman, K. Zahringer","doi":"10.1079/9781780648088.0114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1079/9781780648088.0114","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\u0000 This chapter analyses the farmer's decision to adopt an improved input for disease control with a decision tree model similar to the one used in the previous chapter. In particular, the chapter examines the case where a novel genetic trait offering broad resistance against oomycetes is developed and made available to farmers. It begins by developing a standard decision tree model to examine the farmers' choice of whether to plant the new oomycete-resistant seed. The expected pay-off from the new seed is compared with those from other available control practices and the profit-maximizing choices determine the demand for the innovation. It then uses sensitivity analysis to examine how this demand changes when the price of the new seed fluctuates. Next, the potential market demand for such an innovation is examined through a national survey of US soyabean farmers. Because the innovation is not commercial, the willingness to pay (WTP) of farmers is measured as an appropriate proxy. As before, expert Certified Crop Advisers are also surveyed to produce objective benchmarks and assess whether farmers' WTP estimates are consistent with those of experts as well as with the standard model of profit-maximizing behaviour. Finally, the chapter derives a projected market demand curve for the new oomycete-resistant seed and illustrates how adoption can be influenced by its market price.","PeriodicalId":308282,"journal":{"name":"The economics of soybean disease control","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125357044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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