{"title":"Thoughts on balance-of-payments constrained growth after 40 years","authors":"A. Thirlwall","doi":"10.4337/roke.2019.04.09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/roke.2019.04.09","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers how Thirlwall's balance-of-payments-constrained growth model has fared over the preceding 40 years. Issues dealt with include how the model fits into Harrod's closed-economy dynamic model; whether the model is a tautology; the role of the exchange rate and terms of trade in influencing the long-run growth rate, and whether capital inflows make any difference to the long-run predictions of the model. The conclusion is that it is mainly the structure of production and trade that determines the long-run growth rate of countries, within a balance-of-payments equilibrium framework, as determinants of the income elasticities of demand for exports and imports.","PeriodicalId":291845,"journal":{"name":"Thirlwall's Law at 40","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124854653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Thirlwall's Law at 40","authors":"Esteban Pérez Caldentey, M. Vernengo","doi":"10.4337/roke.2019.04.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/roke.2019.04.01","url":null,"abstract":"This year marks the 40th anniversary of the publication of Anthony P. Thirlwall’s classic paper titled ‘The balance-of-payments constraint as an explanation of international growth rate differences’ (Thirlwall 1979). This article introduced and provided empirical evidence in favor of the proposition that the long-run rate of growth of an economy compatible with balance-of-payments equilibrium can be approximated by the simple rule of the ratio of the growth of exports to the income elasticity of demand for imports. This simple proposition known as Thirlwall’s law is the dynamic analogue of the static Harrod trade multiplier result. In his book International Economics (1933), Roy Harrod had shown that the level of income equaled the level of exports divided by the propensity to import, based on the same assumptions as those of Thirlwall, that is, exports are the only component of autonomous demand, trade is balanced, and the real exchange rate (or terms of trade) does not change (Thirlwall 1997; 2018; McCombie and Thirlwall 1994). It is also similar to the model discussed by Raúl Prebisch in his American Economic Review paper (Prebisch 1959). These ideas were further developed by Nicholas Kaldor, who developed a demand-driven theory of cumulative causation, based on the supermultiplier (Kaldor 1970). Thirlwall’s contribution follows in the Keynesian and Structuralist tradition of these authors. Thirlwall’s law focuses on aggregate demand as the key constraint to economic growth. According to Thirlwall’s law, countries face an external constraint when","PeriodicalId":291845,"journal":{"name":"Thirlwall's Law at 40","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128198052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ignacio Perrotini-Hernández, Juan Alberto Vázquez-Muñoz
{"title":"Endogenous growth, capital accumulation and Thirlwall’s dynamics: the case of Latin America","authors":"Ignacio Perrotini-Hernández, Juan Alberto Vázquez-Muñoz","doi":"10.4337/9781800881471.00006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800881471.00006","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":291845,"journal":{"name":"Thirlwall's Law at 40","volume":"290 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122204133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Thirlwall’s law, external debt sustainability, and the balance-of-payments-constrained level and growth rates of output","authors":"Gustavo Bhering, Franklin Serrano, Fábio Freitas","doi":"10.4337/9781800881471.00008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800881471.00008","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":291845,"journal":{"name":"Thirlwall's Law at 40","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115730943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Growth transitions and the balance-of payments constraint","authors":"Excellent Mhlongo, Kevin S. Nell","doi":"10.4337/9781800881471.00009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800881471.00009","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":291845,"journal":{"name":"Thirlwall's Law at 40","volume":"119 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124724329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Why Thirlwall’s law is not a tautology: more on the debate over the law","authors":"J. Mccombie","doi":"10.4337/9781800881471.00005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800881471.00005","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":291845,"journal":{"name":"Thirlwall's Law at 40","volume":"172 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116885503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is Indonesia’s growth rate balance-of payments-constrained? A time-varying estimation approach","authors":"J. Felipe, Matteo Lanzafame, G. Estrada","doi":"10.4337/9781800881471.00011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800881471.00011","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":291845,"journal":{"name":"Thirlwall's Law at 40","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131580883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Thirlwall’s law and the terms of trade: a parsimonious extension of the balance of-payments-constrained growth model","authors":"Esteban Pérez Caldentey, J. C. Moreno-Brid","doi":"10.4337/9781800881471.00007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800881471.00007","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":291845,"journal":{"name":"Thirlwall's Law at 40","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132516334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"New Structuralism and the balance-of payments constraint","authors":"G. Porcile, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima","doi":"10.4337/9781800881471.00010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800881471.00010","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":291845,"journal":{"name":"Thirlwall's Law at 40","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124456482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}