PublicHealthRN: Disease Outbreaks & Public Health (Topic)最新文献

Avoiding Crowded Places During COVID-19: Simple Choice or Complex Strategic Decision? COVID-19期间避免拥挤的地方:简单的选择还是复杂的战略决策?

PublicHealthRN: Disease Outbreaks & Public Health (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-04-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3822441

M. Stroom, Piet Eichholtz, N. Kok

{"title":"Avoiding Crowded Places During COVID-19: Simple Choice or Complex Strategic Decision?","authors":"M. Stroom, Piet Eichholtz, N. Kok","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3822441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3822441","url":null,"abstract":"Policies focused on avoiding crowded places are considered essential in combating the swift diffusion of COVID-19 infections. Adhering to these policies, however, has proven to be more challenging for the population than initially expected. We argue that ambiguity in the recommendation to “avoid crowded places” implicitly forces individuals to make a complex strategic decision. Using a large, representative survey, we examine the effect of key factors, such as context and personal characteristics, on the decision to visit a crowded place amongst 1,048 Dutch citizens. We find that people use information about the crowdedness on the streets to (inaccurately) predict the behavior of others, in order to either optimize their own decision or violate the recommendation. Moreover, we show that education, age, health risk attitude, and COVID-19 exposure all influence the likelihood of going out. Although our results show that a majority of the population intends to abide to policy recommendations, the lack of up-to-date, location-specific information often leads to unintentional violation of the recommendations, ultimately leading to crowded areas.","PeriodicalId":274233,"journal":{"name":"PublicHealthRN: Disease Outbreaks & Public Health (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115175889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

EHR Investments, Relative Bed Allocation for Covid-19 Patients and Local COVID-19 Incidence and Death Rates: A Simulation and An Empirical Study 电子病历投入、新冠肺炎患者相对床位配置与当地新冠肺炎发病率和死亡率:模拟与实证研究

PublicHealthRN: Disease Outbreaks & Public Health (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-02-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3793919

P. Patel, M. Tsionas, Srikant Devaraj

{"title":"EHR Investments, Relative Bed Allocation for Covid-19 Patients and Local COVID-19 Incidence and Death Rates: A Simulation and An Empirical Study","authors":"P. Patel, M. Tsionas, Srikant Devaraj","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3793919","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3793919","url":null,"abstract":"During the COVID-19 pandemic, raising the hospital bed capacity was essential to ‘flattening the curve.’ However, due to short-run stickiness in hospital bed capacity, operational flexibility in managing the relative bed allocation for COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients was the key to hospital supply chain efficacy. The lateral and vertical flows of information, knowledge, and resources facilitated by electronic health record (EHR) systems could improve the efficacy of relative bed allocations on local COVID-19 outcomes through improved coordination. Drawing on the organizational information processing theory (OIPT) we use both simulation and empirical tests. Using a simulation model, we find that under varying levels of relative bed allocations, coordination among local healthcare providers is associated with a flatter SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) curve. Using weekly hospital data (3,640 hospitals and a total of 73,706 hospital-week observations from July 31st, 2020 to February 12th, 2021), relative allocation of beds under higher EHR was associated with lower 7-, 14-, and 21-day forward-looking COVID-19 case and death rate at the county-level. Our empirical results are robust to a variety of specifications, a contiguous border-county pair analysis, and 2SLS estimates. The findings have implications for policymakers and stakeholders of the local healthcare supply chain.","PeriodicalId":274233,"journal":{"name":"PublicHealthRN: Disease Outbreaks & Public Health (Topic)","volume":"121 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125567767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How Early? Worldwide Evidence from Early Mask Mandates and Other Policy Interventions on COVID-19 Infection and Death 多早?全球范围内关于COVID-19感染和死亡的早期口罩规定和其他政策干预措施的证据

PublicHealthRN: Disease Outbreaks & Public Health (Topic) Pub Date : 2021-02-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3804077

Brian Y. An, S. Porcher, S. Tang, Emily Eunji Kim

{"title":"How Early? Worldwide Evidence from Early Mask Mandates and Other Policy Interventions on COVID-19 Infection and Death","authors":"Brian Y. An, S. Porcher, S. Tang, Emily Eunji Kim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3804077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3804077","url":null,"abstract":"The concept of agility underscores how fast actions, responsiveness to users’ experiences, and adaptive structures enable governments to address problems arising from rapidly changing environments. Applying the concept to government responses to COVID-19, we examine whether a government’s early mandate adoption enhances its eventual efficacy and how different policy instruments compare in both their short and long-run performance. Using worldwide data on the daily evolution of mandate adoption and virus progression, the analysis shows that the mask mandate, especially its early adoption, is consistently associated with lower infection rates in both short- and long-term. By contrast, the other five policy instruments—domestic lockdown, international travel ban, mass gathering ban, business, and school closure—show weaker efficacy. Agility is a critical dimension of policy instruments’ effectiveness, and not all interventions may have the same efficacy. To be agile, governments must weigh the relative efficacies of alternative policy instruments when designing mandates.","PeriodicalId":274233,"journal":{"name":"PublicHealthRN: Disease Outbreaks & Public Health (Topic)","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121672526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

The Value of a Cure: An Asset Pricing Perspective 治愈的价值:一个资产定价的视角

PublicHealthRN: Disease Outbreaks & Public Health (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3731098

V. Acharya, Timothy C. Johnson, S. Sundaresan, S. Zheng

{"title":"The Value of a Cure: An Asset Pricing Perspective","authors":"V. Acharya, Timothy C. Johnson, S. Sundaresan, S. Zheng","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3731098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3731098","url":null,"abstract":"We provide an estimate of the value of a cure using the joint behavior of stock prices and a vaccine progress indicator during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Our indicator is based on the chronology of stage-by-stage progress of individual vaccines and related news. We construct a general equilibrium regime-switching model of repeated pandemics and stages of vaccine progress wherein the representative agent withdraws labor and alters consumption endogenously to mitigate health risk. The value of a cure in the resulting asset-pricing framework is intimately linked to the relative labor supply across states. The observed stock market response to vaccine progress serves to identify this quantity, allowing us to use the model to estimate the economy-wide welfare gain that would be attributable to a cure. In our estimation, and with standard preference parameters, the value of the ability to end the pandemic is worth 5-15% of total wealth. This value rises substantially when there is uncertainty about the frequency and duration of pandemics. Agents place almost as much value on the ability to resolve the uncertainty as they do on the value of the cure itself. This effect is stronger – not weaker – when agents have a preference for later resolution of uncertainty. The policy implication is that understanding the fundamental biological and social determinants of future pandemics may be as important as resolving the immediate crisis.","PeriodicalId":274233,"journal":{"name":"PublicHealthRN: Disease Outbreaks & Public Health (Topic)","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122174793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 23

Going Viral: The History and Economics of Pandemics 病毒传播:流行病的历史和经济学

PublicHealthRN: Disease Outbreaks & Public Health (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3852033

Stephen Davies

{"title":"Going Viral: The History and Economics of Pandemics","authors":"Stephen Davies","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3852033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3852033","url":null,"abstract":"Pandemics are a recurring feature of human history. The COVID-19 virus has several features that mean it poses a particularly severe challenge. It threatens to cause a collapse of hospital systems through a high number of serious cases arising in a short period of time, and this, rather than lethality, that has driven most of the response. Historical comparisons tell us a number of things about pandemics, which remain true in this case: they break out after prolonged periods of increasing economic integration, the initial foci are highly connected cities that are centres of trade and/or governance, and the pattern is usually one of a series of waves, with the second one historically the most damaging. The degree of international integration and the scale and rapidity of travel make it easier for the disease to spread and harder to track it. The effects of pandemics are known from history and can be seen in outline in this case. A severe hit to the supply side of the economy will probably lead to a severe, U-shaped recession. Innovations and changes in consumption and working patterns will be accelerated. A major debt crisis is triggered along with a fall in the value of many assets. There may be higher inflation in a year to two years’ time. We should be aware there will be another pandemic at some point, and for structural reasons this is more likely than was the case a number of decades ago. There are several steps that could be taken to mitigate future risks.","PeriodicalId":274233,"journal":{"name":"PublicHealthRN: Disease Outbreaks & Public Health (Topic)","volume":"160 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133948936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5