ERPN: Macroeconomic Influences (Sub-Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Effective Democracy, Economic Growth and Attractiveness to Foreign Investment","authors":"Debarati Basu, S. Mitra, A. Purohit","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3586268","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3586268","url":null,"abstract":"Democratization should make locations more favourable for MNEs internationalizing. Yet the association of democracy with economic growth and foreign investment remains inconclusive. Contrary to and in response to literature, we show that dichotomous and rules-based democracy measures have a U-shaped relation with GDP and FDI. We thus, create a novel index of effective democracy that is continuous and uses rules weighted by implementation. We then show a clear positive linear association of effective democracy with both GDP and FDI. This provides policy stakeholders a more robust way forward in understanding democratization. It also explains the MNE location choice decision better.","PeriodicalId":196512,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Macroeconomic Influences (Sub-Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124109882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Entrepreneurship Vulnerability to Business Cycle. A New Methodology for Identification Pro-Cyclical and Counter-Cyclical Patterns of Entrepreneurial Activity","authors":"Ewa Lechman, Piotr Dominiak","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2713307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2713307","url":null,"abstract":"In literature, there is ongoing discussion whether entrepreneurial activity, approximated by, for instance, changes in self-employment, tends to behave pro-cyclically, counter-cyclically or rather is a-cyclical. Thus far, both theoretical and empirical evidence, where various multiple methodological approaches are used, does not provide clear answer to the latter; while widely offered explanations are scattered and lack robustness. Regarding the latter, some evidence may be traced in works of Kollinger and Thurik (2012), which using data for 22 OECD countries over the period 1972-2007, use Granger-causality tests to verify if entrepreneur activities are leading or lagging indicator over the business cycles; and their findings they show that entrepreneurship is leading indicator of the business cycle. Rampini (2004), using canonical real business cycle model, finds that entrepreneurship behaves pro-cyclical, which is associated with changes in risk aversion during respective phases of business cycle. Carmona et al. (2010), using quarterly data for self-employment and GDP in Spain and the United States, over the period 1987-2004, adopt the cross-correlations and VAR models to demonstrate that the hypothesis on pro-cyclicality of self-employment cannot be confirmed. At the same time, they present rather mixed results for various groups of self-employed. Klapper et al. (2014), using data for 109 countries over the period 2002-2012, find that entrepreneurial behavior demonstrates strong pro-cyclical patterns. More recent evidence may be also found in works of, inter alia, Parker (2002), Parker et al. (2012a,b), Milan et al. (2012), Baptista and Preto (2011). This paper is designed to contribute to the present state of the art, by presenting a novel methodological approach to identification of the relationship between the intensity of entrepreneurial activity and business cycle. Put differently, we aim unveil if entrepreneurship (approximated by changes in self-employment) behaves pro-cyclically, counter-cyclically or a-cyclically. To exemplify our new conceptual approach, we use quarterly data on deflated gross domestic product and self-employment. The empirical evidence presents the case of Italy. The period of analysis is restricted to the years 1995-2014. All statistics are extracted from OECD datasets on Annual Labor Force and Gross Domestic Product.","PeriodicalId":196512,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Macroeconomic Influences (Sub-Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129563887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is the Growth Effect of Financial Development Conditional on Technological Innovation?","authors":"A. Bhatti, M. Haque, D. Osborn","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2371637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2371637","url":null,"abstract":"This paper argues that excessive financial development in combination with high levels of technological innovation or RD rather, it is conditional upon the level of R&D. Further, we find that a high level of R&D is associated with a weak or negative effect of financial development on economic growth.","PeriodicalId":196512,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Macroeconomic Influences (Sub-Topic)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128274626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Austerity Measures Impact on Entrepreneurship, Employment as Well as Income Distribution: A Panel Data Analysis in EU","authors":"M. Georgiou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2186829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2186829","url":null,"abstract":"In the present paper a discussion will be made about the crucial topic of fostering entrepreneurship as the cornerstone of capitalism (by avoiding too hard austerity measures and helping instead entrepreneurship in various ways) so as to make corporations profitable and ultimately create jobs, avoid social unrest, improve income distribution and reduce the ratio “debt/GDP”. The sample covers EU. Data are taken from Eurostat and their elaboration is made feasible through the E-views software package.","PeriodicalId":196512,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Macroeconomic Influences (Sub-Topic)","volume":"20 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120874020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Italian Firms in History: Size, Technology and Entrepreneurship","authors":"F. Amatori, Matteo Bugamelli, A. Colli","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2236737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2236737","url":null,"abstract":"The economic performance of a country depends, among other things, on the strategies and structures of its firms. In the framework that is designed by institutions and policies and determined by technology and macroeconomic cycles, entrepreneurs decide how to allocate available resources in order to face off competitors and to hook up with demand cycles. This paper looks at the evolution of the Italian economy across the last 150 years from a business history perspective. Analyzing Italian firms over the long-term cycles of the global economy and with respect to the different paradigms of the three industrial revolutions, we identify some structural features that explain successes and failures of the Italian economy. In doing this we explicitly connect the micro level of the business enterprise to the macro one of the national business system and explain the comparatively good performance of the Italian economy from the end of the 19th century to the 1970s. Over the last three decades this performance has turned negative, highlighting the role played by the small average size of firms and the failure of institutions to provide incentives for growth.","PeriodicalId":196512,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Macroeconomic Influences (Sub-Topic)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116270550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Doing Business in Brazil: The Road Ahead","authors":"Sweta Chhaochharia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1278482","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1278482","url":null,"abstract":"Corporate Brazil had a unique moment in its history. The healthier economic conditions, strong position in certain industries, and stability were the key behind its success. Growth prospects for the domestic and multinationals were bright in such areas as infrastructure, basic materials, consumer goods and retail, and banking. Brazil's economy was mainly export-oriented. The GDP was measured to be $1.8 trillion in terms of purchasing power parity, which made the economy the tenth in the world and the third in America. The strong and continuous appreciation of Real generated more than $9000 nominal per capita GDP in 2007. The industrial sector accounted for three fifths of the South America's industrial output. The scientific and technological development in Brazil attracted around $ 20 billion foreign direct investment (FDI) since 2001, compared to only US$ 2 billion per year in the 1990s. The agricultural sector was also remarkably dynamic. The agricultural sector with the mining sector supported trade surpluses that help the country to pay its external debt. However, Brazil's volatile economic history suggests grounds for caution. The most important obstacle is Brazil's huge informal economy that deforms competition by putting efficient, law-abiding companies at a disadvantage. Secondly, macroeconomic instability - reflected in the high cost of capital - followed by regulations (such as rigid labor laws) that limit productivity is the next important barrier. The case discusses Brazil's business environment from a macro economic perspective. The case also analyses the challenges for the smooth functioning of the domestic and multinational business houses.","PeriodicalId":196512,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Macroeconomic Influences (Sub-Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123685603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Globalisation and Inflation in OECD Countries","authors":"G. Pehnelt","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1022901","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1022901","url":null,"abstract":"During the last two decades, the world has experienced a remarkable process of disinflation, with average inflation rates in industrialized countries falling by 10 percentage points and an even sharper decline of the mean rate of inflation in developing countries. Parallel to the decline in inflation rates, a tremendous increase in economic integration - often referred to as globalisation - has been taking place. In this article, we analyse the effects of globalisation on inflation in OECD countries. We theoretically outline different channels through which globalisation may have influenced inflation dynamics and give an overview on the existing empirical evidence on this issue. In the empirical analysis we show that globalisation has contributed to the disinflation process in OECD countries since the 1980s. Inflation rates became much less prone to domestic parameters, especially the domestic output gap. Global factors such as the output gap of the main trading partners became more important in determining national inflation rates. Furthermore, economic freedom and the degree of globalisation are positively related to the disinflation process. Central bank independence seems to have contributed to the decline in inflation rates among OECD countries process, but the effect is rather modest. Though the inertia of inflation can still be observed, the persistence of inflation has considerably declined since the early 1990s.","PeriodicalId":196512,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Macroeconomic Influences (Sub-Topic)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126983539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Efficiency of Stability-Oriented Institutions: The European Case","authors":"Fabrice Capoen, J. Creel","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.963093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.963093","url":null,"abstract":"Stability-oriented European institutions correspond to the general prescriptions of the ‘new macroeconomics consensus’. This contribution provides an assessment of the pros and cons of these institutions in terms of macro stabilisation and exchange-rate swings drawing on different scenarios. We argue that the institutions which have been associated with the Euro – limits on public deficits and a conservative central bank – have somewhat jeopardized the efficiency of this new exchange-rate regime. Adaptation of institutions is thus needed: either cooperation or coordination may enhance European welfare.","PeriodicalId":196512,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Macroeconomic Influences (Sub-Topic)","volume":"28 5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134475811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Romanian Anti-Inflation Policy on the Road to the European Union","authors":"Clauss Muetter, Duca Ioana","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1347747","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1347747","url":null,"abstract":"The importance of understanding the complex mechanism of inflation and its main generating and amplifying factors justifies the attention and continuous focus maintained by experts, financial institutions, authorities and the independent analysts, especially in developing countries. Inflation is the main imbalance factor that Romanian economy faced during the last 16 years. Despite the positive evolution in the near past, this country is still the one with the highest inflation level among countries during the transition period. Only at the end of 2005 did Romania reach a single digit inflation rate - 8.6 percent, according to the NBR most recent report.The main reasons for this delay are: the late prices' liberalization, compared to the other countries, the inconsistency in the economic programs and the relatively late start of NBR in the strategy of competitive disinflation and re-monetization of the economy using intermediary targets. This type of monetary policy continued until July 2005. Starting August 2005, NBR initiated the inflation targeting, which implies: the public announcement of a quantitative inflation target; the price stability set as main goal of monetary policy (ideally the central bank law should define price stability as primary objective); a wide set of information and good macroeconomic data; the technical capacity of NBR to forecast inflation; the ability to set monetary instruments at levels consistent with the inflation target; an increased level of transparency. This strategy will be applied in Romania until the ERM II, after EU joining, because the NBR has considered inflation targeting to be the most appropriate medium term monetary policy framework. As we know, the adoption of Euro requires countries to participate in the ERM II for two years and meeting the set Maastricht criteria:* Inflation - lowest 3 EU members plus 1.5 percent during one year (approximately 2.3 percent);* Fiscal deficit - below 3 percent of GDP;* Public debt - below 60 percent of GDP;* Long-term interest rates - below average of the three low inflation countries plus 2 percent;* Exchange rates - within the EMS band ( /- 15 percent) for 2 years with stability around the central rate.Despite years of reform and relative macroeconomic stability, Romania still faces many challenges before meeting these criteria. It may need a few years before Romania being ready to enter the monetary union, being a long way from fulfilling the inflation target. It is very difficult to reduce the inflation from 8.6 percent to 2.3 percent. The NBR Governor, quote: \"We say that we will reach to this level in 2008, but, most probably, we will get there in 2010\". The stability of the Currency Board and the relatively low inflation in recent years are likely to make it easier for Bulgaria to enter the ERM II than for Romania, which needs to further stabilize its economy . If is not sufficiently prepared, Romania could postpone the initially set date of 2014 for the switc","PeriodicalId":196512,"journal":{"name":"ERPN: Macroeconomic Influences (Sub-Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124297282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}