Syme, G., Hatton MacDonald, D., Fulton, B. and Piantadosi, J. (eds) MODSIM2017, 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.最新文献

{"title":"Impact of rainfall fluctuations and temperature variations on people movement in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Time Series Analysis of data from Somalia and Ethiopia","authors":"O. Hassan, Gurudeo Anand Tularam","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2017.a5.hassan","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2017.a5.hassan","url":null,"abstract":"Water is highly critical for the existence of humans and other living organisms as well as for all\u0000sorts of life. Agriculture needs water to produce crops and manufacturing industries need it for producing\u0000products and services. Water is immensely critical for energy production and needed in the balance and\u0000sustainability of ecosystem. There has been a considerable rainfall variations that impacted water availability\u0000in Somalia and Ethiopia. Equally, temperature variations have also played a major role in the everyday life of\u0000Somalis and Ethiopians. Together the rainfall fluctuations and temperature variations have been attributed to\u0000climate change. The effects of these issues on people movements away from rural to urban have had little\u0000attention in recent times. This paper addresses the impact of climate change variables on rural - urban migration\u0000in both Somalia and Ethiopia. More specifically, we use time series analysis to examine the interactions\u0000between the rural-urban migration, rainfall and temperature. We model the multivariate data using ARIMA\u0000and VAR models; this is to first conduct univariate analyses for the purpose of predictions, and secondly to\u0000understand the nature of interactions and dependencies by conducting multivariate VAR analysis. This study\u0000determines the most appropriate ARIMA models of rural migration, urban migration rainfall and temperature\u0000of Somalia and Ethiopia as presented in Table 2. Both ARIMA and VAR analyses have produced relatively\u0000good models that are statistically significant and perform well in making short term predictions; a 10 year\u0000period of annual forecast of rural and urban migration as well as rainfall and temperature of Somalia and\u0000Ethiopia were carried out. Then univariate and multivariate analyses have showed that climate change factors\u0000such as “rainfall” and “temperature” variations have a combined granger effect on people migration in both\u0000rural and urban areas in both countries; in fact temperature variations have a significant impact (5% and 10%)\u0000on urban and rural migrations respectively. Climate change effects appear to be driving the migration from\u0000rural to urban. This is also compounding the international migration out of the African continent that is noted\u0000in Europe, Asia and even Australia.","PeriodicalId":183839,"journal":{"name":"Syme, G., Hatton MacDonald, D., Fulton, B. and Piantadosi, J. (eds) MODSIM2017, 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130374964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}