{"title":"An Empirical Examination of Heterogeneity and Switching in Foreign Exchange Markets","authors":"D. Goldbaum, Remco C. J. Zwinkels","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1963070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1963070","url":null,"abstract":"In order to study the expectation formation of financial institutions in the foreign exchange market we develop and apply a recursive selection and estimation algorithm to a dataset of surveyed foreign exchange market expectations. Responses are classified into two groups and forecasting models are endogenously determined within the groups. Estimation results reveal that a fundamentalist–chartist model is capable of explaining a large portion of foreign exchange market expectations. Fundamentalists are found to have mean-reverting expectations whereas chartists have contrarian expectations. Allowing panelists to switch between models significantly improves the fit of the model, especially at the relatively shorter forecast horizons. We find that the fundamentalist model is increasingly used as the forecast horizon extends. Finally, results indicate that model choice is based on a combination of period-specific and individual-specific determinants.","PeriodicalId":141180,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Comparative Capitalism (Topic)","volume":"363 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122829413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Direct Selling: Collectivist Versus Individualistic","authors":"Preksha Malik","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2147685","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2147685","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a theory that direct selling (or multi-level marketing) exhibits a greater likelihood of thriving in collectivist countries as opposed to individualistic countries. The paper would explain the nature and functioning of direct selling and proceed to explicate the various reasons accounting for the success of direct selling particularly in collectivist countries. In addition, value would be added to the theoretical framework by the empirical data of an important direct selling company i.e. Amway.","PeriodicalId":141180,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Comparative Capitalism (Topic)","volume":"270 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128512836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Fratianni, P. Alessandrini, A. Presbitero, A. Hughes Hallett
{"title":"External Imbalances and Financial Fragility in the Euro Area","authors":"M. Fratianni, P. Alessandrini, A. Presbitero, A. Hughes Hallett","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2055468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2055468","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents two views of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first is that countries in the South of the Eurozone were fiscally irresponsible and failed to implement pro-competitive supply side policies. The second view holds that the crisis reflects a deep divide between the external surpluses of the North and external deficits of the South. Basic stylized facts cast doubt on the explanation based on the first thesis alone. A relatively simple model shows how poor fundamentals can create a debt problem independently of fiscal responsibility. The empirical analysis of the determinants of government bond yield spreads relative to Germany suggests that both views in fact provide useful insights into the roots of the current sovereign crisis. However, differences in growth and competitiveness and capital flows between North and South have assumed a much more dominant role since the onset of the global crisis.","PeriodicalId":141180,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Comparative Capitalism (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124079214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Global Imbalances and Capital Account Openness: An Empirical Analysis","authors":"Jamel Saadaoui","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1961328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1961328","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate if capital account openness has played a major role in the evolution of global imbalances on the period 1980-2003. We estimate, with panel regression techniques, the impact of capital account openness on medium run current account imbalances for industrialized and emerging countries by using a de jure measure of capital account openness (the Chinn-Ito index of capital account openness, 2002, 2006) and a de facto measure of capital account openness (the gross foreign assets measured as the sum of foreign assets and foreign liabilities). By increasing the opportunities of overseas investments, the relative capital account openness has had positive impact on medium run current account balances of industrialized countries (because of downward pressures on domestic investment rates). Conversely, the relative capital account openness has had negative impact on medium run current account balances of emerging countries (because of upward pressures on domestic investment rates). The evolutions of domestic and foreign capital account openness have allowed increasing medium run current account balances in absolute value during this period.","PeriodicalId":141180,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Comparative Capitalism (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127964825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Crisis in Context: Democratic Capitalism and Its Contradictions","authors":"W. Streeck","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1950558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1950558","url":null,"abstract":"The 'financial crisis' and its sequel, the current sovereign debt crisis, appear to be the latest permutations of an old conflict between capitalism and democracy that forcefully reasserted itself after the end of the postwar growth period. Today's calamities were preceded by high inflation in the late 1960s and 1970s, rising public deficits in the 1980s, and growing private indebtedness in the 1990s and 2000s. In each case, governments were faced with popular demands for prosperity and security that were incompatible with market allocation. Inflation, deficits and financial under-regulation should not be understood as results of faulty economic management but rather as temporary stopgaps to simultaneously satisfy democratic-political claims for social justice and economic claims for profitability. As the site of distributional conflict moved with time from the labor market and industrial relations to the politics of public spending, then to the provision of credit to private households, and from there to international fiscal diplomacy, it became increasingly insulated against popular democratic pressures. At the same time, the political and economic risks associated with the contradictions of democratic capitalism have increased, with potentially disruptive consequences for the social integration of democratic polities as well as for the system integration of advanced market economies.","PeriodicalId":141180,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Comparative Capitalism (Topic)","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132652582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Critique of the Austrian School Interpretation of the 1920-21 Depression","authors":"D. Kuehn","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1591030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1591030","url":null,"abstract":"A series of recent reviews of the depression of 1920-21 by Austrian School and libertarian economists have argued that the downturn demonstrates the poverty of Keynesian policy recommendations. However, these writers misrepresent important characteristics of the 1920-21 downturn, understating the actions of the Federal Reserve and overestimating the relevance of the Harding administration’s fiscal policy. They also engage a caricatured version of Keynesian theory and policy, which ignores Keynes’s views on the efficacy of nominal wage reductions and the preconditions for monetary and fiscal intervention. This paper argues that the government’s response to the 1920-21 depression was consistent with Keynesian recommendations. It offers suggestions for when Austrian School and Keynesian economics share common ground, and argues that the two schools come into conflict primarily in downturns where nominal interest rates are low and demand is depressed. Neither of these conditions held true in the 1920-21 depression.","PeriodicalId":141180,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Comparative Capitalism (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130015674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Formal Theory of Public Opinion in Conflicts","authors":"M. Petrova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1149367","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1149367","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a theoretical model of interaction between a government and ordinary people over the issue of public support for war. I assume that interests of the government are not perfectly aligned with those of citizens, but public support is important for the success of war. The government can send, through mass media, signals to ordinary people, in order to secure public support for military actions. I find that higher costs of influencing media make the war less likely and, conditional on its happening, less costly. There is also a positive effect of uncertainty about the costs of war on public support, but it matters only if media are easy to influence for the government. Empirical evidence from Russian data on public opinion about Chechen conflict is consistent with theoretical predictions.","PeriodicalId":141180,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Comparative Capitalism (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115045618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Varieties of Capitalism, Varieties of Markets: Mergers and Acquisitions in Japan, Germany, France, the UK and USA","authors":"Gregory Jackson, H. Miyajima","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1012210","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1012210","url":null,"abstract":"This paper compares the characteristics of M&A in 1991-2005 across five countries: Japan, France, Germany, the UK and USA. We ask what factors explain the growth of M&A markets across these countries, and what similarities and differences exist in the ways the M&A market operates. We find that the growth of M&A reflects a rather similar combination of sectoral, international, and financial factors. However, despite some convergence toward increasing levels, we find important differences in the characteristics of M&A transactions that reflect institutional differences found within different national 'varieties of capitalism'. We find systematic differences between what Hall and Soskice (2001) call liberal market economies (UK and USA) and coordinated market economies (Japan, France, and Germany) across a wide range of in deal characteristics: takeover bids, the size of stakes purchased, the prior stakes held, the use of private negotiation, degree of hostility, and takeover premium. In line with theories of the social embeddedness of markets (Granovetter 1985), we find that in countries with 'coordinated' market economies, M&A reflects greater 'coordination' of transactions through on going business relations. As such, the market for corporate control does not necessary entail a convergence of national business systems, but a pattern of change influenced by strong continuities.","PeriodicalId":141180,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Comparative Capitalism (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114872717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A New View of the Economic Ability of the Government, Egalitarian Goods and GNP","authors":"V. Papava","doi":"10.1108/03068299310044425","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/03068299310044425","url":null,"abstract":"In modern economics several recognized theses may be called into question. This holds true for factors of production and incomes from them, transfer payments and the problems of their inclusion in the Gross National Product (GNP). In the article these problems are analyzed.","PeriodicalId":141180,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Comparative Capitalism (Topic)","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123039118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}