{"title":"Modelling the Evolution of Wind and Solar Power Infeed Forecasts","authors":"Wei Li, Florentina Paraschiv","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3600775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3600775","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract With the increasing integration of wind and photovoltaic power in the whole European power system, there is a longing for detecting how to trade energy in the ever-changing intraday market from electric power industries. Intraday trading becomes even more relevant in the wake of the European Cross-Border Intraday (XBID) project, which aims at integrating electricity trading across Europe. Therefore, optimal trading strategies to address forecast fluctuations in renewables output are growingly required to be designed. In this study, we model, simulate and predict the evolution of wind and PV infeed forecasting errors over eight days preceding the start of a given quarter-hourly delivery period and updated in 15-min steps. We test comparatively the performance of several stochastic and probabilistic models, and recommend their complementary use, depending on the frequency in which forecast values are adjusted. Since ex-ante updated forecasting errors of renewables infeed are usually not available to researchers, simulations based on our proposed models break the ground for further applications to intraday pricing and optimization.","PeriodicalId":134833,"journal":{"name":"UNSW: Centre for Energy & Environmental Markets (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122864426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Sufficient Exposure to Competition and Its Implications for Energy Entities in EU Public Procurement","authors":"Ignacio Herrera Anchustegui","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3469557","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3469557","url":null,"abstract":"Utilities operating in the water, energy, transport and postal services sectors are in principle bound to the EU/EEA rules on public procurement concerning the purchases of goods, works or services, regardless of whether they are public or private. The reasons for this are historical and technical. These entities were and still are under State influence – either because they remain publicly owned or are controlled and/or supervised by it – and because they tend to operate in network industries with “bottlenecks” in which competition is limited. <br><br>Subjection to the procurement utilities rules implies that these contracting entities will have to carry out tender procedures when purchasing goods that are intended for the pursuit of their activities. This applies either when they operate on the basis of especial or exclusive rights (if they are private) or when they qualify as a contracting authority. <br><br>For energy entities this means whenever an actor that provides or operates energy services such as the production, transport or distribution of gas or heat or electricity, as well as the supply of gas or heat or electricity to such networks, all their purchases will have to comply with the Utilities Directive. ‘Supply’ includes generation/production, wholesale and retail markets. Also, the procurement regime applies to activities relating to the exploitation for the purpose of extracting oil or gas and exploring for or extracting coal or other solid fuels. Thus, generators, distributors, TSOs, and even energy traders could be under the scope of this Directive.","PeriodicalId":134833,"journal":{"name":"UNSW: Centre for Energy & Environmental Markets (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131385187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}