Notas EconómicasPub Date : 2024-02-20DOI: 10.14195/2183-203x_57_4
P. Bação, José Diogo Silva
{"title":"Inflation in Portugal Through the Lens of the Fair Model","authors":"P. Bação, José Diogo Silva","doi":"10.14195/2183-203x_57_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203x_57_4","url":null,"abstract":"This study delves into the dynamics of inflation in Portugal, employing a cost-push model as the analytical framework. The model is estimated using data from 2000Q2 to 2020Q1, a period predating the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the surge in inflation. We then produce forecasts spanning from 2020Q2 to 2023Q2. The forecasts hint strongly at a structural break during this latter period, implying that the model offers insufficient representation of inflation dynamics in Portugal. We conclude with a discussion of the model's strengths and limitations in understanding inflation dynamics, shedding light on critical aspects that impact its explanatory power.","PeriodicalId":120727,"journal":{"name":"Notas Económicas","volume":"223 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140448961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Notas EconómicasPub Date : 2024-02-20DOI: 10.14195/2183-203x_57_3
Tomé Lima, H. Sebastião
{"title":"Native Market Factors for Pricing Cryptocurrencies","authors":"Tomé Lima, H. Sebastião","doi":"10.14195/2183-203x_57_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203x_57_3","url":null,"abstract":"The cryptocurrency market has been growing frantically in number of cryptocurrencies, online exchanges, and market capitalization, which has amplified the need for comprehensive and robust pricing models. Using a database of all eligible cryptocurrencies listed on the CoinMarketCap website, we study the relationship between returns and several potential pricing factors, such as size (market capitalization), momentum, liquidity, and maturity. The analysis was conducted from December 27, 2013, to December 29, 2020, using weekly data for 3'667 cryptocurrencies. Results point out that portfolios of cryptocurrencies with smaller market capitalization, higher reversal, lower liquidity, and lower maturity tend to offer higher returns. The 5-factor model that additionally includes illiquidity and maturity performs better than the 3-factor model previously proposed in the literature, meaning that illiquidity and maturity significantly help capture the cross-sectional cryptocurrency risk premia. The 5-factor model presented seems robust to different procedures to construct portfolios and factors.","PeriodicalId":120727,"journal":{"name":"Notas Económicas","volume":"224 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140448382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices for European Countries","authors":"Spyridon Boikos, Eirini Makantasi, Theodore Panagiotidis","doi":"10.14195/2183-203x_57_1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203x_57_1","url":null,"abstract":"The present article seeks to develop a macroeconomic uncertainty index for the EU Member States based on Google Trends for a period of fifteen years (from January 2008 to December 2022). Monthly data were collected for the 12 countries for four different word-terms, as well as for unemployment rate, inflation and the 10-year Government Bond yield. For simplifying the research the keywords searched were in English and were not translated into the countries’ own languages. Our findings were then compared to existing uncertainty indices. Lastly, we employed Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) with the existing economic indicators to highlight the effect that one standard deviation shock on the uncertainty index has on all three indicators and its ability to accurately depict the future precariousness of the country.","PeriodicalId":120727,"journal":{"name":"Notas Económicas","volume":"567 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140446850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Notas EconómicasPub Date : 2024-02-20DOI: 10.14195/2183-203x_57_2
Marcelo Santos, Susana Garrido, Tiago Sequeira
{"title":"Management and Human Capital Employment: An Overlooked Relationship","authors":"Marcelo Santos, Susana Garrido, Tiago Sequeira","doi":"10.14195/2183-203x_57_2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203x_57_2","url":null,"abstract":"In this article we look at data on management and skills demand of firms in existing databases and we highlight the strong positive relationship between both variables. We develop a model that explains this relationship and calibrate it in order to present quantitative results, which we then compare with our own estimates. We discover that a simple model with management as a technology can replicate well the estimated influence of management in the skills that firms require. We also present evidence of the influence of the sub-items of management on skill requirements and found that aside from the talent component of management, target and performance components greatly influence the demand for skills.","PeriodicalId":120727,"journal":{"name":"Notas Económicas","volume":"257 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140448231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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