Mathematical Analysis for Transmission of COVID-19最新文献

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Modeling the Impact of Nationwide BCG Vaccine Recommendations on COVID-19 Transmission, Severity, and Mortality 模拟全国卡介苗推荐对COVID-19传播、严重程度和死亡率的影响
Mathematical Analysis for Transmission of COVID-19 Pub Date : 2020-05-14 DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.10.20097121
Nita H. Shah, A. Suthar, Moksha H. Satia, Yash Shah, N. Shukla, J. Shukla, Dhairya Shukla
{"title":"Modeling the Impact of Nationwide BCG Vaccine Recommendations on COVID-19 Transmission, Severity, and Mortality","authors":"Nita H. Shah, A. Suthar, Moksha H. Satia, Yash Shah, N. Shukla, J. Shukla, Dhairya Shukla","doi":"10.1101/2020.05.10.20097121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.10.20097121","url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 was declared as pandemic on 11th March 2020 by WHO. There are apparent dissimilarities in incidence and mortality of COVID-19 cases in different parts of world. Developing countries in Asia and Africa with fragile health system have shown lower incidence and mortality compared to developed countries with superior health system in Europe and America. Most countries in Asia and Africa have national BCG vaccination program while Europe and America do not have such program, or have ceased it. At present, there is no known therapy to treat COVID-19 disease. There is no vaccine available currently to prevent COVID- 19 disease. As mathematical modelling is ideal for predicting the rate of disease transmission as well as evaluating efficacy of possible public health prevention measures, we have created a mathematical model with seven compartments to understand nationwide BCG vaccine recommendation on COVID-19 transmission, severity and mortality. We have computed two basic reproduction number, one at vaccine free equilibrium point and other at non-vaccine free equilibrium point and carried out local stability, sensitivity and numerical analysis. Our result showed that individuals with BCG vaccinations have lower risk of getting COVID-19 infection, shorter hospital stays, and increased rate of recovery. Furthermore, countries with long-standing universal BCG vaccination policies have reduced incidence, mortality, and severity of COVID-19. Further research will focus on exploring the immediate benefits of vaccination to healthcare workers and patients as well as benefits of BCG re-vaccination.","PeriodicalId":109307,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Analysis for Transmission of COVID-19","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130633192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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