环境科学与生态学最新文献

{"title":"Radon exhalation rate prediction and early warning model based on VMD-GRU and similar day analysis.","authors":"Shijie Fang, Yifan Chen, Xianwei Wu, Nuo Zhao, Yong Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jenvrad.2024.107593","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jenvrad.2024.107593","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>To improve the safety and reliability of radon exhalation rate monitoring systems, this study introduces an early warning method that integrates a VMD-GRU prediction model with a similar day analysis. Initially, radon exhalation rate data are decomposed into components with different informational content using the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) algorithm. Each component is forecasted by using the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) algorithm, and these forecasts are aggregated to estimate the overall radon exhalation rate. The effectiveness of the VMD-GRU model is validated through comparisons with ELMAN, LSTM, GRU,VMD-ELMAN and VMD-LSTM models. Finally, by combining the VMD-GRU model's outcomes with the similar day analysis, the system performs real-time monitoring and anomaly detection of radon exhalation rates. The results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively identifies and early warnings to abnormal radon fluctuations, significantly enhancing the precision of anomaly early warnings and providing robust decision support for radon monitoring and control, thus paving new paths for similar early warning systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":15667,"journal":{"name":"Journal of environmental radioactivity","volume":"281 ","pages":"107593"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142769348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Examining the presence and effects of coherence and fragmentation in the Gulf of Maine fishery management network.","authors":"Derek Katznelson, Antonia Sohns, Dongkyu Kim, Evelyn Roozee, William R Donner, Andrew M Song, Jasper R de Vries, Owen Temby, Gordon M Hickey","doi":"10.1007/s10113-024-02328-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10113-024-02328-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Natural resource management networks cohere due to mutual dependencies and fragment, in part, due to the perceived risks of interaction. However, research on these networks has tended to accept coherence a priori rather than problematizing dependence, and few studies exist on interorganizational risk perception. This article presents the results of a study operationalizing these concepts and measuring the distribution of three types of dependence (capital, legitimacy, and regulatory) and two types of perceived risk (performance and sanction) among nearly fifty stakeholder groups and organizations participating in the management of fisheries in the binational Gulf of Maine. The analysis reveals an organizationally diverse network with several stakeholder types participating, with communications clustered binationally, with low levels of perceived risk in interacting, and interdependencies cohering the network. The types of interorganizational dependence present varied across dyadic relationships, but legitimacy dependence, based on shared understandings that organizations should work together, was the most present and had the largest effect on collaboration-oriented network traits. Sanction risk was more common than performance risk but had the most substantial negative effect. The results suggest an opportunity for additional studies of interorganizational dependance and perceived risk to operationalize and measure the sources of network coherence and fragmentation and their effect on collaboration.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-024-02328-y.</p>","PeriodicalId":54502,"journal":{"name":"Regional Environmental Change","volume":"25 1","pages":"3"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11624248/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142803492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shifting Precipitation Regimes Influence Optimal Germination Strategies and Population Dynamics in Bet-Hedging Desert Annuals.","authors":"William S Cuello, Sebastian J Schreiber, Jennifer R Gremer, Pete C Trimmer, D Lawrence Venable, Andrew Sih","doi":"10.1086/733105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/733105","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractClimate change will affect both the mean and the variability in environmental conditions and may have major negative impacts on population densities in the future. For annual plants that already live in an extreme environment like the Sonoran Desert, keeping a fraction of their seeds dormant underground (for possibly years at a time) is critical to survive. Here, we consider how this form of bet hedging (i.e., delayed germination) for 10 Sonoran Desert annuals mediates responses to precipitation shifts. We use a demographic model parameterized with long-term field and precipitation data to explore how forecasted changes in precipitation impact annual plant species' population densities. We then examine how instantaneous evolution of optimal germination fractions in the shifted precipitation regimes bolsters population densities. Our results indicate that overall less rainfall and, to a lesser extent, increased variance in rainfall drive population levels down. Instantaneous evolution of optimal germination fractions in new regimes benefited species' populations only marginally, and only for small to moderate shifts in precipitation. Thus, even rapid evolution is unlikely to save populations experiencing larger shifts in precipitation. Finally, we predict that specialists that can capitalize on wet-year bonanzas or are water use efficient will be the most resilient to precipitation shifts as long as their seed survivorships are sufficiently high.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"205 1","pages":"55-75"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142883384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Family Matters: Linking Population Growth, Kin Interactions, and African Elephant Social Groups.","authors":"Jasper C Croll, Hal Caswell","doi":"10.1086/733181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/733181","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractIn many species, individuals are embedded in a network of kin with whom they interact. Interactions between kin can affect survival and fertility rates and thus the life history of individuals. These interactions indirectly affect both the network of kin and the dynamics of the population. In this way, a nonlinear feedback between the kin network and individual vital rates emerges. We describe a framework for integrating these kin interactions into a matrix model by linking the individual kin network to a matrix model. We demonstrate the use of this framework for African elephant populations under varying poaching pressure. For this example, we incorporate effects of the maternal presence and matriarchal age on juvenile survival and effects of the presence of a sister on young female fecundity. We find that the feedback resulting from the interactions between family members shifts and reduces the expected kin network. The reduction in family size and structure severely reduces the positive effects of family interactions, leading to an additional decrease in population growth rate on top of the direct decrease due to the additional mortality. Our analysis provides a framework that can be applied to a wide range of social species.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"205 1","pages":"E1-E15"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142883415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Source characteristics and quantitative estimates of organic carbon composition in the intertidal zones of Jiaozhou Bay, China.","authors":"Ke Liu, Jie Fu, Li Li, Daolai Zhang, Xiaotong Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117338","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117338","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Jiaozhou Bay (JZB) intertidal zone is a significant carbon reservoir that plays a crucial role in transporting and accumulating organic matter; however, quantitative studies of organic matter sources are scarce. In this study, we present bulk parameters of total organic carbon (TOC), TOC/TN, δ¹³C, and biomarker contents in 36 surface sediment samples from the JZB intertidal zones to quantify the contribution of organic carbon (OC) derived from terrestrial/marine sources, such as C₃ plants, C₄ plants, estuarine productivity, sewage outlets, and marine productivity. The results demonstrated that a two-end-member model based on the traditional indicators of TOC/TN or δ¹³C is not appropriate for quantifying the OC source. The presence of C₃ plants, C₄ plants, and sewage outlets in the JZB intertidal zone could lead to errors in determining OC contribution when solely using TOC/TN or δ¹³C. A classical mixing diagram (three-end-member model) utilizing TOC/TN and δ¹³C values revealed that OC contribution was dominated by marine productivity throughout the intertidal zone. In the west, the average OC contribution from marine productivity, estuarine productivity, and C₄ plants was 73.8 %, 14.2 %, and 12.0 %, respectively. In the east, the average OC contribution from marine productivity, estuarine productivity, and sewage outlets was 57.6 %, 24.9 %, and 17.4 %, respectively. The higher OC contribution from marine productivity in the west was attributed to the occurrence of Spartina alterniflora, while the OC contribution from estuarine productivity in the east was primarily due to the presence of more rivers flowing into the JZB compared to the west. By combining biomarkers and OC contents, a significant positive relationship verified the suitability of the end-member values selected for the three-end-member mixing model in the west and east intertidal zones of JZB. This finding was further supported by principal component analysis (PCA) analyses of these proxies. This study demonstrated that OC sources in intertidal zones varied among contrasting coastal environmental conditions and addressed the knowledge gap regarding biogeochemical cycles and ecological protection in the JZB intertidal zones.</p>","PeriodicalId":18215,"journal":{"name":"Marine pollution bulletin","volume":"210 ","pages":"117338"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142729950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soilscapes of Mortality Risk Suggest a Goldilocks Effect for Overwintering Ectotherms.","authors":"Sarah A Waybright, Michael E Dillon","doi":"10.1086/733183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/733183","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractChanging climates are driving population declines in diverse animals worldwide. Winter conditions may play an important role in these declines but are often overlooked. Animals must not only survive winter but also preserve body condition, a key determinant of growing season success. We hypothesized that ectotherms overwintering in soil face a trade-off between risks of cold damage (including freezing) near the surface and elevated energy use at deeper depths. To test this hypothesis, we developed landscapes of mortality risk across depth for overwintering bumble bee queens. These critical pollinators are in decline in part because of climate change, but little is known about how climate affects overwintering mortality. We developed a mechanistic modeling approach combining measurements of freezing points and the temperature dependence of metabolic rates with soil temperatures from across the United States to estimate mortality risk across depth under historic conditions and under several climate change scenarios. Under current conditions, overwintering queens face a Goldilocks effect: temperatures can be too cold at shallow depths because of substantial freezing risk but too hot at deep depths where they risk prematurely exhausting lipid stores. Models suggest that increases in mean temperatures and in seasonal and daily temperature variation will increase risk of overwinter mortality. Better predictions of effects of changing climate on dormant ectotherms require more measurements of physiological responses to temperature during dormancy across diverse taxa.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"205 1","pages":"E16-E33"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142883390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A circumpolar review of the breeding distribution and habitat use of the snow petrel (<i>Pagodroma nivea</i>), the world's most southerly breeding vertebrate.","authors":"Josie Francis, Ewan Wakefield, Stewart S R Jamieson, Richard A Phillips, Dominic A Hodgson, Colin Southwell, Louise Emmerson, Peter Fretwell, Michael J Bentley, Erin L McClymont","doi":"10.1007/s00300-024-03336-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00300-024-03336-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Knowledge of the spatial distribution of many polar seabird species is incomplete due to the remoteness of their breeding locations. Here, we compiled a new database of published and unpublished records of all known snow petrel <i>Pagodroma nivea</i> breeding sites. We quantified local environmental conditions at sites by appending indices of climate and substrate, and regional-scale conditions by appending 30 year mean (1992-2021) sea-ice conditions within accessible foraging areas. Breeding snow petrels are reported at 456 sites across Antarctica and subantarctic islands. Although many counts are old or have large margins of error, population estimates available for 222 known sites totalled a minimum of ~ 77400 breeding pairs. However with so many missing data, the true breeding population will be much higher. Most sites are close to the coast (median = 1.15 km) and research stations (median = 26 km). Median distance to the November sea-ice edge (breeding season sea-ice maximum) is 430 km. Locally, most nests occur in cavities in high-grade metamorphic rocks. Minimum air temperatures occur at inland sites, and maxima at their northern breeding limit. Breeding location and cavity selection is likely determined by availability of suitable breeding substrate within sustainable distance of suitable foraging habitat. Within this range, nest sites may then be selected based on local conditions such as cavity size and aspect. Our database will allow formal analyses of habitat selection and provides a baseline against which to monitor future snow petrel distribution changes in response to climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":20362,"journal":{"name":"Polar Biology","volume":"48 1","pages":"9"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11655582/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142877659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of steroid hormones and their mixtures on western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis).","authors":"Chen-Si Wang, Guo-Yong Huang, Dong-Qiao Lei, Guang-Guo Ying","doi":"10.1016/j.aquatox.2024.107167","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aquatox.2024.107167","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Steroid hormones, including estrone (E1), androstadienedione (ADD), and androstenedione (AED), are prevalent in aquatic ecosystems and pose ecological risks due to their disruptive influence on fish populations. However, little consideration has been given to the endocrine disrupting effects of fish exposed to complex mixtures of hormones in the real world. In this study, adult female western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) were exposed to two concentrations of E1 (100 ng/L for E1L and 5,000 ng/L for E1H), ADD (100 ng/L for ADDL and 10,000 ng/L for ADDH), and AED (100 ng/L for AEDL and 10,000 ng/L for AEDH) as well as four binary mixture treatments (ADDL+E1L, ADDH+E1H, AEDL+E1L, and AEDH+E1H). After 42 d, their basic physiological parameters, secondary sex characteristics, gonadal health, embryo numbers, and HPG axis-related gene expression were evaluated. Results showed that the P/D ratio of hemal spines in AEDH+E1H exhibited a pronounced reduction, approximately half that of E1H. Moreover, the number of embryos in ADDH+E1H and AEDH+E1H was reduced by approximately 3-fold compared to E1H. Correspondingly, G. affinis exposure to ADDH+E1H and AEDH+E1H increased the proportion of degenerated oocytes. Exposure to combined treatments led to significant changes in the transcription of HPG axis-related genes in fish and displayed a certain degree of interaction. Furthermore, cluster heatmap analysis of target genes demonstrated that ADD+E1 and AED+E1 (both high and low concentrations) were far apart from ADD, AED and E1. Collectively, these observations imply the presence of antagonistic interactions in combined treatments, and the negative impact on the growth, maturation, and endocrine system of G. affinis varies accordingly.</p>","PeriodicalId":248,"journal":{"name":"Aquatic Toxicology","volume":" ","pages":"107167"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142724554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Equilibrium Theory of Biodiversity Dynamics: A General Framework for Scaling Species Richness and Community Abundance along Environmental Gradients.","authors":"Jordan G Okie, David Storch","doi":"10.1086/733103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/733103","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractLarge-scale temporal and spatial biodiversity patterns have traditionally been explained by multitudinous particular factors and a few theories. However, these theories lack sufficient generality and do not address fundamental interrelationships and coupled dynamics among resource availability, community abundance, and species richness. We propose the equilibrium theory of biodiversity dynamics (ETBD) to address these linkages. According to the theory, equilibrium levels of species richness and community abundance emerge at large spatial scales because of the population size dependence of speciation and/or extinction rates, modulated by resource availability and the species abundance distribution. In contrast to other theories, ETBD includes the effect of biodiversity on community abundance and thus addresses phenomena such as niche complementarity, facilitation, and ecosystem engineering. It reveals how alternative stable states in both diversity and community abundance emerge from these nonlinear biodiversity effects. The theory predicts how the strength of these effects alters scaling relationships among species richness, (meta)community abundance, and resource availability along different environmental gradients. Using data on global-scale variation in tree species richness, we show how the general framework is useful for clarifying the role of speciation, extinction, and resource availability in driving macroecological patterns in biodiversity and community abundance, such as the latitudinal diversity gradient.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"205 1","pages":"20-40"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142883540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Age-Specific Phenology and Reproductive Success Senescence Vary with Environmental Age in a Wild Bird.","authors":"Suzanne Bonamour, Luis-Miguel Chevin, Christophe de Franceschi, Anne Charmantier, Céline Teplitsky","doi":"10.1086/733182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/733182","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractSenescence is ubiquitous yet highly variable among species, populations, and individuals, for reasons that are poorly understood. It is not clear how environmental conditions affect senescence, especially in the wild. We explored the influence of environment on the degree of laying date age-specific variation and reproductive success senescence in wild blue tits. We disentangled the effects of age from those of previously encountered environmental conditions by introducing two complementary estimates of \"relative environmental age.\" These estimates quantify the cumulative past environment experienced by an individual through two population-level metrics: average breeding failure and adult mortality. Results confirmed that laying date first advanced and annual reproductive success first increased with age up until about 3 years old, when these trends were reversed, consistent with a senescent decline. Both proxies for environmental conditions influenced laying date age-specific rates, such that females experiencing a more favorable environment had faster phenological decline. Conversely, environmental age did not affect reproductive success and its senescence. This study demonstrates that past environment can shape phenological age-specific change beyond the effects of chronological age and suggests that senescence will be best understood by investigating the deterioration of performances with accumulating exposure to detrimental conditions across a variety of traits.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"205 1","pages":"76-89"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142883409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}