{"title":"Limit Order Books, Diffusion Approximations and Reflected SPDEs: From Microscopic to Macroscopic Models","authors":"B. Hambly, J. Kalsi, J. Newbury","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2020.1758176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2020.1758176","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Motivated by a zero-intelligence approach, the aim of this paper is to connect the microscopic (discrete price and volume), mesoscopic (discrete price and continuous volume) and macroscopic (continuous price and volume) frameworks for the modelling of limit order books, with a view to providing a natural probabilistic description of their behaviour in a high- to ultra high-frequency setting. Starting with a microscopic framework, we first examine the limiting behaviour of the order book process when order arrival and cancellation rates are sent to infinity and when volumes are considered to be of infinitesimal size. We then consider the transition between this mesoscopic model and a macroscopic model for the limit order book, obtained by letting the tick size tend to zero. The macroscopic limit can then be described using reflected SPDEs which typically arise in stochastic interface models. We then use financial data to discuss a possible calibration procedure for the model and illustrate numerically how it can reproduce observed behaviour of prices. This could then be used as a market simulator for short-term price prediction or for testing optimal execution strategies.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81396426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Optimal Interaction between a Hedge Fund Manager and Investor","authors":"H. E. Ramirez, P. Johnson, P. Duck, S. Howell","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2018.1506258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2018.1506258","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study explores hedge funds from the perspective of investors and the motivation behind their investments. We model a typical hedge fund contract between an investor and a manager, which includes the manager’s special reward scheme, i.e., partial ownership, incentives and early closure conditions. We present a continuous stochastic control problem for the manager’s wealth on a hedge fund comprising one risky asset and one riskless bond as a basis to calculate the investors’ wealth. Then we derive partial differential equations (PDEs) for each agent and numerically obtain the unique viscosity solution for these problems. Our model shows that the manager’s incentives are very high and therefore investors are not receiving profit compared to a riskless investment. We investigate a new type of hedge fund contract where the investor has the option to deposit additional money to the fund at half maturity time. Results show that investors’ inflow increases proportionally with the expected rate of return of the risky asset, but even in low rates of return, investors inflow money to keep the fund open. Finally, comparing the contracts with and without the option, we spot that investors are sometimes better off without the option to inflow money, thus creating a negative value of the option.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80201631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Real-World Scenarios With Negative Interest Rates Based on the LIBOR Market Model","authors":"S. Lopes, C. Vázquez","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2018.1492348","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2018.1492348","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In this article, we present a methodology to simulate the evolution of interest rates under real-world probability measure. More precisely, using the multidimensional Shifted Lognormal LIBOR market model and a specification of the market price of risk vector process, we explain how to perform simulations of the real-world forward rates in the future, using the Euler‒Maruyama scheme with a predictor‒corrector strategy. The proposed methodology allows for the presence of negative interest rates as currently observed in the markets.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74826891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Option Pricing in Illiquid Markets with Jumps","authors":"José M. T. S. Cruz, D. Ševčovič","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2019.1585267","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2019.1585267","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The classical linear Black–Scholes model for pricing derivative securities is a popular model in the financial industry. It relies on several restrictive assumptions such as completeness, and frictionless of the market as well as the assumption on the underlying asset price dynamics following a geometric Brownian motion. The main purpose of this paper is to generalize the classical Black–Scholes model for pricing derivative securities by taking into account feedback effects due to an influence of a large trader on the underlying asset price dynamics exhibiting random jumps. The assumption that an investor can trade large amounts of assets without affecting the underlying asset price itself is usually not satisfied, especially in illiquid markets. We generalize the Frey–Stremme nonlinear option pricing model for the case the underlying asset follows a Lévy stochastic process with jumps. We derive and analyze a fully nonlinear parabolic partial-integro differential equation for the price of the option contract. We propose a semi-implicit numerical discretization scheme and perform various numerical experiments showing the influence of a large trader and intensity of jumps on the option price.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90666725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Diop, A. Pascucci, M. Di Francesco, G. De Marchi
{"title":"Sovereign CDS Calibration Under a Hybrid Sovereign Risk Model","authors":"S. Diop, A. Pascucci, M. Di Francesco, G. De Marchi","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2018.1554447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2018.1554447","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The European sovereign debt crisis, started in the second half of 2011, has posed the problem for asset managers, trades and risk managers to assess sovereign default risk. In the reduced form framework, it is necessary to understand the interrelationship between creditworthiness of a sovereign, its intensity to default and the correlation with the exchange rate between the bond’s currency and the currency in which the Credit Default Swap CDS spread are quoted. To do this, we propose a hybrid sovereign risk model in which the intensity of default is based on the jump to default extended constant elasticity variance model. We analyse the differences between the default intensity under the domestic and foreign measure and we compute the default-survival probabilities in the bond’s currency measure. We also give an approximation formula to CDS spread obtained by perturbation theory and provide an efficient method to calibrate the model to CDS spread quoted by the market. Finally, we test the model on real market data by several calibration experiments to confirm the robustness of our method.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75364146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A numerically efficient closed-form representation of mean-variance hedging for exponential additive processes based on Malliavin calculus","authors":"Takuji Arai, Yuto Imai","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2018.1506259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2018.1506259","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We focus on mean-variance hedging problem for models whose asset price follows an exponential additive process. Some representations of mean-variance hedging strategies for jump-type models have already been suggested, but none is suited to develop numerical methods of the values of strategies for any given time up to the maturity. In this paper, we aim to derive a new explicit closed-form representation, which enables us to develop an efficient numerical method using the fast Fourier transforms. Note that our representation is described in terms of Malliavin derivatives. In addition, we illustrate numerical results for exponential Lévy models.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80736807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling Credit Risk in the Jump Threshold Framework","authors":"Chun-Yuan Chiu, A. Kercheval","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2018.1465349","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2018.1465349","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The jump threshold framework for credit risk modelling developed by Garreau and Kercheval enjoys the advantages of both structural- and reduced-form models. In their article, the focus is on multidimensional default dependence, under the assumptions that stock prices follow an exponential Lévy process (i.i.d. log returns) and that interest rates and stock volatility are constant. Explicit formulas for default time distributions and basket credit default swap (CDS) prices are obtained when the default threshold is deterministic, but only in terms of expectations when the default threshold is stochastic. In this article, we restrict attention to the one-dimensional, single-name case in order to obtain explicit closed-form solutions for the default time distribution when the default threshold, interest rate and volatility are all stochastic. When the interest rate and volatility processes are affine diffusions and the stochastic default threshold is properly chosen, we provide explicit formulas for the default time distribution, prices of defaultable bonds and CDS premia. The main idea is to make use of the Duffie–Pan–Singleton method of evaluating expectations of exponential integrals of affine diffusions.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80509303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Portfolio Optimization under Fast Mean-Reverting and Rough Fractional Stochastic Environment","authors":"J. Fouque, Ruimeng Hu","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2019.1584532","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2019.1584532","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Fractional stochastic volatility models have been widely used to capture the non-Markovian structure revealed from financial time series of realized volatility. On the other hand, empirical studies have identified scales in stock price volatility: both fast-timescale on the order of days and slow-scale on the order of months. So, it is natural to study the portfolio optimization problem under the effects of dependence behaviour which we will model by fractional Brownian motions with Hurst index , and in the fast or slow regimes characterized by small parameters or . For the slowly varying volatility with , it was shown that the first order correction to the problem value contains two terms of the order , one random component and one deterministic function of state processes, while for the fast varying case with , the same form holds an order . This paper is dedicated to the remaining case of a fast-varying rough environment () which exhibits a different behaviour. We show that, in the expansion, only one deterministic term of order appears in the first order correction.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76705104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Generalised Lyapunov Functions and Functionally Generated Trading Strategies","authors":"Johannes Ruf, Kangjianan Xie","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2019.1584041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2019.1584041","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper investigates the dependence of functional portfolio generation, introduced by Fernholz (1999), on an extra finite variation process. The framework of Karatzas and Ruf (2017) is used to formulate conditions on trading strategies to be strong arbitrage relative to the market over sufficiently large time horizons. A mollification argument and Komlós theorem yield a general class of potential arbitrage strategies. These theoretical results are complemented by several empirical examples using data from the S&P 500 stocks.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89195793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Volatility Targeting Using Delayed Diffusions","authors":"L. Torricelli","doi":"10.1080/1350486X.2018.1493390","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2018.1493390","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT A target volatility strategy (TVS) is a risky asset-riskless bond dynamic portfolio allocation which makes use of the risky asset historical volatility as an allocation rule with the aim of maintaining the instantaneous volatility of the investment constant at a target level. In a market with stochastic volatility, we consider a diffusion model for the value of a target volatility fund (TVF) which employs a system of stochastic delayed differential equations (SDDEs) involving the asset realized variance. First we prove that under some technical assumptions, contingent claim valuation on a TVF is approximately of Black-Scholes type, which is consistent with and supports the standing market practice. In second place, we develop a computational framework using recent results on Markovian approximations of SDDEs systems, which we then implement in the Heston variance model using an ad hoc Euler scheme. Our framework allows for efficient numerical valuation of derivatives on TVFs, whose typical purpose is the assessment of the guarantee costs of such funds for insurers.","PeriodicalId":35818,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87494085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}