Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology最新文献_第6页

Dust Properties of Two New Cavity Structures Nearby Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars: The IRAS Survey 渐近巨星分支星附近两个新空腔结构的尘埃特性:IRAS巡天

Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.3126/jist.v26i2.41556

S. P. Gautam, A. Silwal, Mijas Tiwari, S. Subedi, M. Khanal, A. K. Jha

{"title":"Dust Properties of Two New Cavity Structures Nearby Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars: The IRAS Survey","authors":"S. P. Gautam, A. Silwal, Mijas Tiwari, S. Subedi, M. Khanal, A. K. Jha","doi":"10.3126/jist.v26i2.41556","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/jist.v26i2.41556","url":null,"abstract":"We studied the dust properties of two cavity structures (namely FIC21+54 and FIC16-56) nearby Asymptotic Giant Branch stars using Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) maps. Dust color temperature, Planck function, dust mass, and visual extinction with their distribution within the region of interest were examined. The temperature of dust was found to lie in the range of 22.24 ± 0.81 K to 23.27 ± 0.21 K, and 25.12 ± 0.43 K to 26.17 ± 0.62 K, and the mass of dust was obtained within the range of 4.21 × 1026 kg to 3.6 × 1027 kg, and 2.1 × 1027 kg to 3.31 × 1028 kg, for FIC21+54 and FIC16-56, respectively. Some unusual behaviors on the distribution of dust temperature indicated the effect of nearby sources within the studied structures. Moreover, we observed the trend of dust particles along the major and minor diameters, and plots represented that the particles were oscillating with a sinusoidal pattern in both cavities. The negative slope between 25 µm and 60 µm in far-infrared spectral distribution was encountered for both structures, which portrayed less number density of particles in 60 µm band; interaction between AGB wind and the ambient interstellar medium could be the possible reason behind this. These findings support the prior results for two new cavity structures nearby AGB stars within the galactic plane -10° < b < +10°.","PeriodicalId":16072,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78026678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Antibiotic Susceptibility Pattern of Shigella spp. Isolated from Patients Suspected of Acute Gastroenteritis 疑似急性胃肠炎患者分离志贺氏菌的抗生素敏感性分析

Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.3126/jist.v26i2.41261

B. Basnet, Dhirendra Niroula, J. Acharya, S. Basnyat

{"title":"Antibiotic Susceptibility Pattern of Shigella spp. Isolated from Patients Suspected of Acute Gastroenteritis","authors":"B. Basnet, Dhirendra Niroula, J. Acharya, S. Basnyat","doi":"10.3126/jist.v26i2.41261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/jist.v26i2.41261","url":null,"abstract":"Shigellosis, an intestinal infection caused by Shigella species, is manifested by bloody diarrhea. Due to the surge in multidrug-resistant (MDR) Shigella species, the control of shigellosis has been a big challenge. This study aims to determine the prevalence and assess the antibiotic susceptibility pattern of Shigella species. During our study period of five months from April 2014 to August 2014 at Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital, Teku, Kathmandu, a total of 653 stool samples were collected from the patients suspected of acute gastroenteritis. The standard microbiological procedure was followed for the isolation and identification of Shigella species. Assessment of antibiotic susceptibility pattern of the Shigella species was done by Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method following CLSI guidelines. The study found 25(3.82%) cases were Shigella positive. Among them, 18(72%) were S. flexneri, 6(24%) were S. dysenteriae, and 1(4%) was S. sonnei. The patients in the age group 16-45 years were highly susceptible to infection as the higher proportion 16(64%) of Shigella species were isolated from this age group (p> 0.05). Shigella species were found to be highly susceptible to Cefotaxime (100%), a third-generation cephalosporin. Nalidixic acid, on the other hand, was the least effective antibiotic as 20(80%) of the Shigella isolates were resistant, followed by Ampicillin 18(72%), Cotrimoxazole 13(52%), and Ciprofloxacin 9(36%). A higher proportion of [10(40%)] of our study isolates were MDR. Our results show that Nalidixic acid, Ampicillin, Cotrimoxazole, Ciprofloxacin, and Ofloxacin cannot be used as empirical therapy for the treatment of Shigella infection as Shigella species were highly resistant to these antibiotics. So, for the MDR Shigella infection, we suggest third-generation cephalosporin as an option.","PeriodicalId":16072,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75291266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Structural, Electronic and Magnetic Properties of Defected Water Adsorbed Single-Layer MoS2 缺陷水吸附单层二硫化钼的结构、电子和磁性能

Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology Pub Date : 2021-06-17 DOI: 10.3126/jist.v26i1.37817

H. K. Neupane, N. Adhikari

{"title":"Structural, Electronic and Magnetic Properties of Defected Water Adsorbed Single-Layer MoS2","authors":"H. K. Neupane, N. Adhikari","doi":"10.3126/jist.v26i1.37817","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/jist.v26i1.37817","url":null,"abstract":"Water adsorbed in MoS2 (wad-MoS2), 1S atom vacancy defect in wad-MoS2 (1S-wad-MoS2), 2S atoms vacancy defects in wad-MoS2 (2S-wad-MoS2), and 1Mo atom vacancy defect in wad-MoS2 (Mo-wad-MoS2) materials were constructed, and their structural, electronic, and magnetic properties were studied by spin-polarized density functional theory (DFT) based first-principles calculations. The wad-MoS2, 1S-wad-MoS2, 2S-wad-MoS2, and Mo-wad-MoS2 materials were found stable. From band structure calculations, wad-MoS2, 1S-wad-MoS2 and 2S-wad-MoS2 materials open energy bandgap of values 1.19 eV, 0.65 eV and 0.38 eV respectively. Also, it was found that the conductivity strength of the material increases with an increase in the concentration of S atom vacancy defects in the structure. On the other hand, the Mo-wad-MoS2 material has metallic properties because energy bands of electrons crossed the Fermi energy level in the band structure. For the investigation of magnetic properties, the density of states (DoS) and partial density of states (PDoS) calculations were used and found that wad-MoS2, 1S-wad-MoS2, and 2S-wad-MoS2 are non-magnetic materials, while Mo-wad-MoS2 is a magnetic material. The total magnetic moment of Mo-wad-MoS2 has a value of 2.66 µB/cell, due to the arrangement of unpaired up-spin and down-spin of electrons in 3s & 3p orbitals of S atoms; and 4p, 4d & 5s orbitals of Mo atoms in the material.","PeriodicalId":16072,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77772423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Bacterial Etiology of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid in Tertiary Care Patients and Antibiogram of the Isolates 三级护理患者支气管肺泡灌洗液的细菌病原学及分离菌的抗生素谱

Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology Pub Date : 2021-06-17 DOI: 10.3126/jist.v26i1.37833

S. Adhikari, Ramesh Sharma Regmi, Siddanta Pandey, Paras Paudel, Nischal Neupane, Shyam Chalise, A. Dubey, Sarad Chandra Kafle, K. Rijal

{"title":"Bacterial Etiology of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid in Tertiary Care Patients and Antibiogram of the Isolates","authors":"S. Adhikari, Ramesh Sharma Regmi, Siddanta Pandey, Paras Paudel, Nischal Neupane, Shyam Chalise, A. Dubey, Sarad Chandra Kafle, K. Rijal","doi":"10.3126/jist.v26i1.37833","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/jist.v26i1.37833","url":null,"abstract":"Bronchoalveolar Lavage (BAL) is a medical technique by which cells and fluids from bronchioles and lung alveoli are withdrawn for diagnosis of disease or evaluation of treatment. Patients with various pulmonary infections follow the procedure of BAL for the disease diagnosis as it has high sensitivity and reliability in diagnosis. To examine the bacterial etiology of BAL fluids among tertiary care patients with pulmonary infections, a cross-sectional study was conducted over a period of three months from August to November 2018. A total of 149 BAL fluid samples were examined and the bacterial agents were isolated and identified by conventional microbiological methods. Out of the 149 samples, 142 samples were culture positive. Among 6 different isolates (4 Gram-negative and 2 Gram-positive), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (45 %) was predominant followed by Klebsiella pneumoniae (25.3 %). A higher infection rate was seen among males (62.4 %) and in the age group 60-70 years (30.0 %). In addition, 25.4 % (36/149) samples were positive in Acid Fast staining. Bacterial recovery from the BAL fluid was significantly associated with the gender and age of the patients (p<0.05). Gentamycin was the least resisted (1.5 %) by Gram-negative isolates followed by Polymyxin-B (3 %). For Gram-positive isolates, Ofloxacin was the most effective drug resisted by none of the isolates followed by Gentamycin. Among the 157 isolates, 125 (79.6 %) were MDR and 35.0 % of Enterobacteriaceae were ESBL producers. Detection of bacterial agents from BAL fluid can be a basis for successful antimicrobial therapy for patients with pulmonary infections.","PeriodicalId":16072,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79098709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

A Review on Current Practices of Plastics Waste Management and Future Prospects 塑料废弃物管理现状及展望

Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology Pub Date : 2021-06-17 DOI: 10.3126/jist.v26i1.37837

N. L. Bhandari, Sulakshana Bhattarai, G. Bhandari, Sumita Subedi, K. Dhakal

引用次数: 2

Impact of Flow Variation on Hydropower Projects in Budhigandaki River Basin of Nepal 尼泊尔Budhigandaki河流域流量变化对水电工程的影响

Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology Pub Date : 2021-06-17 DOI: 10.3126/jist.v26i1.37831

S. Marahatta, L. Devkota, D. Aryal

{"title":"Impact of Flow Variation on Hydropower Projects in Budhigandaki River Basin of Nepal","authors":"S. Marahatta, L. Devkota, D. Aryal","doi":"10.3126/jist.v26i1.37831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/jist.v26i1.37831","url":null,"abstract":"Daily flow data from 1964 to 2015 of Budhigandaki River at Arughat were analyzed to assess the impact of flow variation at different time scales to the run of the river (RoR) type of hydropower projects. The data show very high inter-annual variation in daily, monthly and seasonal flows. The long term annual average flow at Arughat was 160 m3/s and varies from 120 to 210 m3/s. The long-term averages of loss in flow for both dry and wet seasons based on daily flows for three design discharges (Q90, Q60 and Q40) were found to be respectively -0.72, -1.76 and -1.54 m3/s for dry season and 0.0, -0.27 and -2.26 m3/s for wet season. Although long-term average loss is small, uncertainty increases with the increase in design discharge. The long-term dry season power loss is about 3 % for the RoR projects of the basin however, its annual variation is large. There is a probability of losing the quantum of energy generation by nearly 40% in some years and gaining by about 30 % in some other years in dry season. The impact of flow variation on power production was negative in both dry and wet seasons for RoR projects of Budhigandaki basin. This study concludes that uncertainty arising from daily flow variation should be assessed while estimating energy generation in hydropower projects. Intra-annual flow variation is, thus, to be taken into consideration while calculating the power generated by the RoR plants; and it should be reflected in power purchase agreement.","PeriodicalId":16072,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89885814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Evaluation of the TRMM Product for Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Precipitation over Nepal (1998-2018) TRMM产品对尼泊尔降水时空特征的评价(1998-2018)

Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology Pub Date : 2020-12-25 DOI: 10.3126/jist.v25i2.33733

Kalpana Hamal, Nitesh Khadka, Samresh Rai, B. Joshi, Jagdish Dotel, Lilaram Khadka, Niraj Bag, Shravan Kumar Ghimire, D. Shrestha

{"title":"Evaluation of the TRMM Product for Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Precipitation over Nepal (1998-2018)","authors":"Kalpana Hamal, Nitesh Khadka, Samresh Rai, B. Joshi, Jagdish Dotel, Lilaram Khadka, Niraj Bag, Shravan Kumar Ghimire, D. Shrestha","doi":"10.3126/jist.v25i2.33733","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/jist.v25i2.33733","url":null,"abstract":"Precipitation is a fundamental component of the water cycle and integral to the society and the ecosystem. Further, continuous monitoring of precipitation is essential for predicting severe weather, monitoring droughts, and high-intensity related extremes. The present study evaluated the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation and trends between 1998– 2018 using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (3B43-V7) with reference to 142-gauge observations over Nepal. TRMM moderately captured precipitation patterns' overall characteristics, although underestimated the mean annual precipitation during the study period. TRMM precipitation product well captured the seasonal variation of the observed precipitation with the highest correlation in the winter season. The decreasing seasonal and annual trend was found in both observed and TRMM products, with the highest (lowest) decreasing trend observed during the monsoon (winter) season. It was also noted that the TRMM product showed a smaller bias before 2007, while a large error was found after 2007, especially in the monsoon months. In general, the TRMM product is a good alternative to observe rain gauge measurement in Nepal. However, there is still space for further improvement in rainfall retrieval algorithms, especially in high-elevation areas during the winter season.","PeriodicalId":16072,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology","volume":"182 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84670760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6

Effect of Altitude on Nutrient Concentration, Nutrient Stock and Uptake in Fine Root of Sal (Shorea Robusta Gaertn.) Forest in Terai and Hill Areas of Eastern Nepal 海拔对黄芩细根养分浓度、养分储备及吸收的影响尼泊尔东部德赖和山区的森林

Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology Pub Date : 2020-06-12 DOI: 10.3126/jist.v25i1.29420

K. Bhattarai, T. Mandal, T. Gautam

{"title":"Effect of Altitude on Nutrient Concentration, Nutrient Stock and Uptake in Fine Root of Sal (Shorea Robusta Gaertn.) Forest in Terai and Hill Areas of Eastern Nepal","authors":"K. Bhattarai, T. Mandal, T. Gautam","doi":"10.3126/jist.v25i1.29420","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/jist.v25i1.29420","url":null,"abstract":"The present study was conducted to understand the effect of altitude on the nutrient concentration, nutrient stock, and uptake in the fine root of the Terai Sal forest (TSF) and Hill Sal forest (HSF) in eastern Nepal. Annual mean fine root biomass in 0-30 cm soil depth was found higher in HSF (6.27 Mg ha-1) than TSF (5.05 Mg ha-1). Conversely, fine root production was higher in TSF (4.8 Mg ha-1 y-1) than HSF (4.12 Mg ha-1 y-1). Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium content in fine roots were slightly higher in TSF than HSF. Nutrient concentration in fine roots of smaller size (<2 mm diameter) was nearly 1.2 times greater than that of larger size (2–5 mm diameter) in both forests. In HSF total stock of different nutrients (kg ha-1) in fine root was 55.62 N, 4.99 P, and 20.15 K whereas, these values were 49.49 N, 4.14 P, and 19.27 K only in TSF. However, total nutrient uptake (kg ha-1y-1) by fine root (both size classes) was greater in TSF (48.5 N, 4.3 P, and 18.6 K) than HSF (36.9 N, 3.3 P, and 13.5 K). The variability in fine root nutrient dynamics between these two forests was explained by the differences in fine root biomass and production which were influenced by the combined effect of varied altitude and season. The fine root, as being a greater source of organic matter, the information on its nutrient dynamics is inevitable for the management of soil nutrients in the forest ecosystem.","PeriodicalId":16072,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90530894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

First-Principles Study of Molecular Adsorption of Hydrogen/s on Co-Adatom Graphene 氢/s在共合原子石墨烯上分子吸附的第一性原理研究

Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology Pub Date : 2020-06-12 DOI: 10.3126/jist.v25i1.29418

N. Pantha, S. Thapa, N. Adhikari

{"title":"First-Principles Study of Molecular Adsorption of Hydrogen/s on Co-Adatom Graphene","authors":"N. Pantha, S. Thapa, N. Adhikari","doi":"10.3126/jist.v25i1.29418","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3126/jist.v25i1.29418","url":null,"abstract":"The study of graphene and its allotropes help to understand fundamental science and their role in the industry. The adsorption of transition metal adatom on mono-layer graphene can tune the geometrical, electronic, and magnetic properties of the material according to the requirement for the practical applications. In the present work, the geometrical stability, electronic and magnetic properties, and also the redistribution of electronic charge of single cobalt atom (Co) adsorbed graphene with reference to pure graphene have been investigated to develop a model system for the effective storage of hydrogen. The density functional theory (DFT) based first-principles calculations by incorporating van der Waals (VDW) interactions within DFT-D2 levels of approximation implemented in the quantum ESPRESSO package was used. The band structure and density of states of cobalt-adatom graphene show that the material is metallic and magnetic with a total magnetic moment of 1.55 μB. The change in the electronic distribution of Co-adatom graphene has been found favorable for adsorbing molecular hydrogen/s with greater strength. The increasing number of adsorbed molecular hydrogen/s (n=1 to 7) onto the substrate shows varying binding energy per hydrogen molecule, high enough at low concentration (n=1, 2, and 3), and then decreases slowly on increasing the value of n. The nature of adsorption and binding energy per hydrogen molecule (with a range of 0.116 - 0.731 eV/ H2) are found useful to meet a standard target for hydrogen storage in such materials.","PeriodicalId":16072,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87539110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Trend analysis, modelling and impact assessment of COVID-19 in Nepal 尼泊尔COVID-19趋势分析、建模和影响评估

Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology Pub Date : 2020-05-30 DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.29.20117390

S. Bhandary, S. Shrestha, R. Khatiwada, D. Shah, Nabin Narayan Munankarmi, M. Banjara, Resham Thapa-Parajuli, K. Manandhar, R. Adhikari, R. Tuladhar

{"title":"Trend analysis, modelling and impact assessment of COVID-19 in Nepal","authors":"S. Bhandary, S. Shrestha, R. Khatiwada, D. Shah, Nabin Narayan Munankarmi, M. Banjara, Resham Thapa-Parajuli, K. Manandhar, R. Adhikari, R. Tuladhar","doi":"10.1101/2020.05.29.20117390","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.29.20117390","url":null,"abstract":"With continued global expansion of COVID-19 transmission and mounting threat of the disease, the timely analysis of its trend in Nepal and forecasting the potential situation in the country has been deemed necessary. We analyzed the trend, modelling and impact assessment of COVID-19 cases of Nepal from 23rd January 2020 to 30th April 2020 to portray the scenario of COVID-19 after the first phase of lockdown. Exponential smoothing state-space and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were constructed to forecast the cases. Susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model was fit to estimate the basic reproduction number (Ro) of COVID-19 in Nepal. There has been increase in the number of cases but the overall growth in COVID-19 was not high. Statistical modelling has shown that COVID-19 cases may continue to increase exponentially in Nepal. The basic reproduction number in Nepal being maintained at low level of 1.08 for the period of 23rd January to 30th April 2020 is an indication of effectiveness of lockdown in containing the COVID-19 spread. The models further suggest that COVID-19 might persist until December 2020 with peak cases in August 2020. On the other hand, basic reproduction number of 1.25 was computed for total cases reported for the 22nd March to 30th April 2020 period implying that COVID-19 may remain for at least for a year in the country. Thus, maintaining social distance and stay home policy with an implementation of strict lockdown in COVID-19 affected district is highly recommended.","PeriodicalId":16072,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80972061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 10