管理学最新文献_第9页

Probabilistic Forecast Aggregation with Statistical Depth 具有统计深度的概率预测聚合

IF 6.4 2区管理学

European Journal of Operational Research Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2025.06.028

James W. Taylor

{"title":"Probabilistic Forecast Aggregation with Statistical Depth","authors":"James W. Taylor","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.06.028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2025.06.028","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers aggregation methods for interval forecasts and forecasts of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) when there are many forecasters, and past forecast accuracy may not be known. For aggregation, the median and trimmed means have been proposed as simple and robust alternatives to the mean, with some trimmed mean approaches enabling recalibration to widen or narrow the resulting interval or CDF forecast. For interval forecast aggregation, the median and trimming are applied to each bound separately. To try to use the available information better, we treat the bounds as a bivariate point with statistical depth used to order the points in terms of centrality. The deepest point can be viewed as the median interval forecast, and the depth of each point can be used as the basis for trimming. For CDF forecasts, the literature presents aggregation methods for which the median or trimmed mean are obtained for each point on the domain of the distribution. However, if one part of a CDF forecast is outlying, the appeal of using the rest of the CDF forecast is perhaps reduced. We use functional depth to provide a measure of centrality for each CDF forecast, and hence identify the deepest function, which can be viewed as the median forecast. We also use functional depth as the basis for trimming, and consider weighted depth to control the width of the resulting aggregated interval or CDF forecast. We provide empirical illustration using data from surveys of professional macroeconomic forecasters, and an application to growth-at-risk.","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144515806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

AI-augmented government transformation: Organisational transformation and the sociotechnical implications of artificial intelligence in public administrations 人工智能增强的政府转型：公共行政部门的组织转型和人工智能的社会技术影响

IF 7.8 1区管理学

Government Information Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.giq.2025.102055

Luca Tangi , A. Paula Rodriguez Müller , Marijn Janssen

{"title":"AI-augmented government transformation: Organisational transformation and the sociotechnical implications of artificial intelligence in public administrations","authors":"Luca Tangi , A. Paula Rodriguez Müller , Marijn Janssen","doi":"10.1016/j.giq.2025.102055","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.giq.2025.102055","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Implementing artificial intelligence (AI) in public settings requires a fundamental transformation of various social and technical aspects within public administration. However, the transformative efforts required for AI integration and use in government remain underexplored. This study introduces the concept of 'AI-augmented government transformation,' building on sociomateriality and sociotechnical theory, and develops a theoretical framework to explore this phenomenon. By applying this framework and drawing insights from expert interviews, we identify the strategic shifts and socio-technical adaptations essential for integrating AI into public administrations. Our analysis highlights the importance of opening the 'black box' of AI to gain a deep understanding of its underlying technologies and their materialities.</div><div>The findings reveal complex interdependencies between AI materiality and the social and technical systems that public administrations must navigate. Specifically, AI, as a novel materiality, introduces new organizational dynamics, enhances employee capabilities, and alters operational routines and practices. These changes complement technical ones, such as upgrades and advancements in data collection and processing. By investigating the complexities of AI-augmented government transformation, this research offers novel and practical insights for policymakers and practitioners navigating the challenges and opportunities of AI integration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48258,"journal":{"name":"Government Information Quarterly","volume":"42 3","pages":"Article 102055"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Beyond awareness: A behavioral study of travel pledges and the moderating role of environmental attitudes 超越意识：旅游承诺与环境态度调节作用的行为研究

IF 8.9 2区管理学

Journal of Destination Marketing & Management Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdmm.2025.101037

Ailin Fei, Jonathon Day

引用次数: 0

Administrative Overload and Policy Triage: Causal evidence from the Introduction of the Acid Rain Program in the United States 行政超载与政策分类：美国引入酸雨计划的因果证据

IF 4.2 1区管理学

Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1093/jopart/muaf020

Constantin Kaplaner, Christoph Knill, Yves Steinebach

{"title":"Administrative Overload and Policy Triage: Causal evidence from the Introduction of the Acid Rain Program in the United States","authors":"Constantin Kaplaner, Christoph Knill, Yves Steinebach","doi":"10.1093/jopart/muaf020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopart/muaf020","url":null,"abstract":"Recent research suggests that additional public policies can sometimes decrease overall policy effectiveness rather than improve the problem-solving capacity of the state. This occurs when new policies are not supported by additional administrative capacities, leading to an overburdened administration. Public authorities handle the increased workload by employing “policy triage,” which involves reallocating resources among different policies. Despite this straightforward argument, a systematic understanding of these dynamics is lacking in the existing literature. This paper addresses this by examining the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) introduction of the Acid Rain Program. Utilizing a difference-in-differences analysis, it reveals a significant reduction in inspections for industrial sites not covered by the Acid Rain Program as administrators redirected enforcement efforts. These findings, robust against various alternative explanations, highlight the inherent trade-offs in the public sector when policy and administrative expansions are not considered together. To assess broader relevance, we complement our analysis with 28 interviews in Germany, Italy, and Portugal, showing that policy triage is a common response to administrative overload across diverse institutional contexts.","PeriodicalId":48366,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144513244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A reverse Stackelberg model for demand response in local energy markets 本地能源市场需求响应的反向Stackelberg模型

IF 6.4 2区管理学

European Journal of Operational Research Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2025.06.017

Juan Sepúlveda, Luce Brotcorne, Hélène Le Cadre

{"title":"A reverse Stackelberg model for demand response in local energy markets","authors":"Juan Sepúlveda, Luce Brotcorne, Hélène Le Cadre","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.06.017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2025.06.017","url":null,"abstract":"In an era where renewable energy resources are increasingly integrated into our power systems, and consumer-centric approaches gain traction, local energy markets emerge as a pivotal mechanism for empowering prosumers. This paper presents a novel bilevel optimization model that uniquely blends the dynamics of peer–to–peer energy markets with the physical realities of power distribution networks. The innovation steems from introducing a tariff design approach based on affine functions to shape prosumer behavior towards operationally efficient and secure energy exchanges. This is critical as previous market designs often overlooked the physical constraints of power flows, leading to potential risks in voltage regulation and economic efficiency. The lower level of the model encapsulates the interactions among prosumers in a generalized Nash equilibrium problem (GNEP), modeling active and reactive power injections of prosumers. The upper level, representing the role of the distribution system operator, strategically computes tariffs to steer the market to an operationally efficient equilibrium. The paper relies on the classical Nikaido–Isoda (NI) reformulation to characterize the GNEP, a key aspect in leveraging a proof of strong stability of the lower–level solution. Computational experiments on various IEEE test feeder instances reveal the model’s capacity to efficiently align prosumer behavior with operational objectives, utilizing only the tariff information, thereby simplifying the decision-making process in complex distribution systems.","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144515807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unlocking playful dimensions: Developing and validating a scale for assessing video game-related hedonic experiences 解锁游戏维度：开发和验证评估电子游戏相关享乐体验的量表

IF 15.6 1区管理学

Journal of Innovation & Knowledge Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jik.2025.100753

Amir Zaib Abbasi , Ding Hooi Ting , Helmut Hlavacs , Bradley Wilson , Mousa Albashrawi , Yogesh K. Dwivedi

{"title":"Unlocking playful dimensions: Developing and validating a scale for assessing video game-related hedonic experiences","authors":"Amir Zaib Abbasi , Ding Hooi Ting , Helmut Hlavacs , Bradley Wilson , Mousa Albashrawi , Yogesh K. Dwivedi","doi":"10.1016/j.jik.2025.100753","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jik.2025.100753","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to develop and validate an instrument to measure video game-related playful consumption experiences (PCEs), assessing a player’s imaginal, emotional, and sensory experiences during video gameplay. We initially conceptualize the theoretical framework of video game-related PCEs. Next, we develop a scale through three analytical phases. In the first phase, exploratory factor analysis is conducted with 225 Malaysian video game players. In the second phase, the partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) is applied to a sample of 444 Malaysian gamers to validate the scale at a higher-order level and evaluate the conceptual model’s acceptability. In the third phase, the PCE scale’s nomological validity is established using the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) by analyzing 294 Pakistani PUBG players with the PLS-SEM approach. All hypotheses based on the TRA network are supported. This study uniquely applies the hedonic theory of consumption to operationalize PCEs, assessing gamers’ playful experiences. Additionally, it extends the TRA by elucidating attitude formation through PCEs in PUBG gameplay.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46792,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Innovation & Knowledge","volume":"10 4","pages":"Article 100753"},"PeriodicalIF":15.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144490965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Transforming leader reflexivity into follower performance: The vital role of vertical knowledge exchange and participative decision-making 将领导者反身性转化为追随者绩效：垂直知识交换和参与式决策的重要作用

IF 10.5 1区管理学

Journal of Business Research Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2025.115558

Jianghua Mao , Yan Zhang

引用次数: 0

Investigating how collective action mitigates the harm of algorithmic decision making through framing and frame transformation 研究集体行为如何通过框架和框架转换减轻算法决策的危害

IF 5.7 2区管理学

Information and Organization Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.infoandorg.2025.100585

Suresh Cuganesan

{"title":"Investigating how collective action mitigates the harm of algorithmic decision making through framing and frame transformation","authors":"Suresh Cuganesan","doi":"10.1016/j.infoandorg.2025.100585","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.infoandorg.2025.100585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How does collective action mitigate the negative outcomes or harm caused by algorithmic decision making (ADM) to recipients of its decision outputs? This study investigates this question, particularly considering the complexities of transparency and ADM operator reluctance to make changes. It applies a framing perspective drawn from the social movements literature to a longitudinal analysis of a case of governmental use of ADM. The study contributes to prior literature by revealing how ADM transparency, that is, understanding of ADM and its outcomes, can manifest at two levels: situational and systemic. Situational transparency frames understandings of how ADM operates in particular localized situations, and sees harm as deriving from how the system intersects with these specifics. Systemic transparency operates at an aggregated level, frames understandings of how ADM operates across social situations, and sees harm as inherent in the system itself. Both raise important and complementary questions about ADM systems and their effects. In addition, the study reveals how collective action mitigates harm through purposeful strategy combinations that develop transparency and achieve frame transformations that intensify pressure on operators to change. When ADM transparency at the situational level indicates harm, frame transformations that amplify normative pressures are likely to elicit harm-mitigating change unless ADM operators are resistant. In contrast, when ADM transparency at the systemic level reveals harm, frame transformations that create coercive pressures are required because these compel ADM operators to fundamentally redesign or abandon their systems despite the adverse impacts for them.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47253,"journal":{"name":"Information and Organization","volume":"35 3","pages":"Article 100585"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144490816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

In vitro to in vivo translation of artificial intelligence for clinical use: screening for acute coronary syndrome to identify ST-elevation myocardial infarction. 体外到体内翻译的人工智能临床应用：筛查急性冠状动脉综合征识别st段抬高型心肌梗死

IF 4.7 2区医学

Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocaf101

Gabrielle Bunney, Kate Miller, Anna Graber-Naidich, Rana Kabeer, Sean M Bloos, Alexander J Wessels, Melissa A Pasao, Marium Rizvi, Ian P Brown, Maame Yaa A B Yiadom

{"title":"In vitro to in vivo translation of artificial intelligence for clinical use: screening for acute coronary syndrome to identify ST-elevation myocardial infarction.","authors":"Gabrielle Bunney, Kate Miller, Anna Graber-Naidich, Rana Kabeer, Sean M Bloos, Alexander J Wessels, Melissa A Pasao, Marium Rizvi, Ian P Brown, Maame Yaa A B Yiadom","doi":"10.1093/jamia/ocaf101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jamia/ocaf101","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>The integration of predictive models into live clinical care requires scientific testing before implementation to ensure patient safety. We built and technically implemented a model that predicts which patients require an electrocardiogram (ECG) to screen for heart attacks within 10 minutes of their arrival to the Emergency Department. We developed a structured framework for the in vitro to in vivo translation of the model through implementation as clinical decision support (CDS).</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>The CDS ran as a silent pilot for 2 months. We conducted (1) a Technical Component Analysis to ensure each part of the CDS coding functioned as planned, and (2) a Technical Fidelity Analysis to ensure agreement between the CDS's in vivo and the model's in vitro screening decisions.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The Technical Component Analysis indicated several small coding errors in CDS components that were addressed. During this period, the CDS processed 18 335 patient encounters. CDS fidelity to the model reflected raw agreement of 95.5% (CI, 95.2%-95.9%) and kappa of 87.6% (CI, 86.7%-88.6%). Additional coding errors were identified and were corrected.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>Our structured framework for the in vitro to in vivo translation of our predictive model uncovered ways to improve performance in vivo and the validity of risk assessment decisions. Testing predictive models on live care data and accompanying analyses is necessary to safely implement a predictive model for clinical use.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>We developed a method for the translation of our model from in vitro to in vivo that can be utilized with other applications of predictive modeling in healthcare.</p>","PeriodicalId":50016,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144509199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multiple goal conflicts and exploratory innovation: Does alignment between team and organization help or hurt? 多目标冲突和探索性创新：团队和组织之间的一致性是有益还是有害？

IF 8.5 2区管理学

Long Range Planning Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.lrp.2025.102562

Dr Saeedeh Ahmadi, Prof Tom Mom, Alexander Schmidt, Prof Henk Volberda

{"title":"Multiple goal conflicts and exploratory innovation: Does alignment between team and organization help or hurt?","authors":"Dr Saeedeh Ahmadi, Prof Tom Mom, Alexander Schmidt, Prof Henk Volberda","doi":"10.1016/j.lrp.2025.102562","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lrp.2025.102562","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the varying impacts of multiple goal conflicts on employees’ exploratory innovative behaviors. Although innovation is vital for an organization's survival and competitive advantage, the simultaneous pursuit of other goals may create goal conflicts for employees: increasing pressure on their scarce resources, including time and cognitive capacity. While much of the existing research discusses goal conflicts in general or emphasizes their negative performance consequences, we extend this literature by theorizing about two distinct ways individuals may interpret goal conflicts—either as a trade-off (e.g., innovation vs. revenue) or as complementary (e.g., innovation vs. safety)—and how these interpretations affect exploratory innovation. Moreover, we theorize that team–organization alignment moderates these effects. Our findings, based on multilevel, multisource, time-lagged data from a large energy company, indicate that conflicts involving innovation goals do not uniformly impact employee exploratory behavior. Increasing levels of conflict between innovation and safety goals are associated with employees conducting more innovation activities, but the expected negative effect of innovation-revenue conflicts is insignificant. Moreover, in a context of high alignment the innovation-safety conflict triggers employees to innovate more; in contrast, for the innovation-revenue conflict it is the opposite. Our study offers important implications for the literature on multiple goal conflict and highlights the critical roles of employees and their alignment with senior leadership.","PeriodicalId":18141,"journal":{"name":"Long Range Planning","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144515330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0