经济学最新文献

{"title":"Equalising the effects of automation? The role of task overlap for job finding","authors":"Diego Dabed,&nbsp;Sabrina Genz,&nbsp;Emilie Rademakers","doi":"10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102766","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102766","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates whether task overlap can equalise the distributional effects of automation for unemployed job seekers displaced from routine jobs. Using a language model, we establish a novel job-to-job task similarity measure. Exploiting the resulting job network to define job markets flexibly, we find that only the most similar jobs affect job finding. Since automation-exposed jobs overlap with other highly exposed jobs, task-based reallocation provides little relief for affected job seekers. We show that this is not true for more recent software exposure, for which task overlap lowers the inequality in job finding.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48153,"journal":{"name":"Labour Economics","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102766"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144757324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can digital inclusive finance suppress energy ecological footprint? moderated mediation effect test based on technological innovation","authors":"Mianhao Hu ,&nbsp;Yiling Li ,&nbsp;Wenqi Xiong ,&nbsp;Juhong Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104491","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Within the context of energy conservation, emission reduction, and the development of digital inclusion financial (DIF), this study explores the relationship between DIF and the energy ecological footprint (EEF). Using panel data from 30 provinces in China spanning 2011 to 2021, it employs a moderated mediation effect model to empirically analyze the mechanisms through which DIF affects the EEF. The findings reveal that DIF can mitigate the growth of the EEF. Specifically, it achieves this by promoting industrial structure upgrading, which in turn curbs EEF expansion. Furthermore, technological innovation enhances the positive impact of DIF on industrial structure upgrading, thereby amplifying the suppressive effect of industrial transformation on the EEF. Additional analysis highlights that regional difference—such as government digital governance capacity, environmental and financial regulations, digital infrastructure development, and digital usage—significantly influence the extent to which DIF inhibits EEF growth. The study also finds that DIF not only fosters economic inclusiveness but also demonstrates an energy ecological inclusiveness effect. Its marginal utility is particularly pronounced in regions with lower economic development and higher EEF. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the theoretical linkage between DIF and the EEF. It also provides valuable references and decision-making insights for leveraging DIF to enhance energy efficiency and support the achievement of the “dual-carbon” goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14444,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Economics & Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 104491"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144738940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Erratum to “Robust Priors in Nonlinear Panel Data Models”","authors":"Manuel Arellano,&nbsp;Stéphane Bonhomme,&nbsp;Sofia Borodich Suarez,&nbsp;Martin Schumann,&nbsp;Xiaoxia Shi,&nbsp;Gautam Tripathi","doi":"10.3982/ECTA23441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA23441","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 4","pages":"1-3"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144740142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"You Can Lead a Horse to Water: Spatial Learning and Path Dependence in Consumer Search","authors":"Charles Hodgson,&nbsp;Gregory Lewis","doi":"10.3982/ECTA19576","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19576","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We develop and estimate a model of consumer search with spatial learning. Consumers make inferences from previously searched objects to unsearched objects that are nearby in attribute space, generating path dependence in search sequences. The estimated model rationalizes patterns in data on online consumer search paths: search tends to converge to the chosen product in attribute space, and consumers take larger steps away from rarely purchased products. Eliminating spatial learning reduces consumer welfare by 12%: cross-product inferences allow consumers to locate better products in a shorter time. Spatial learning has important implications for product recommendations on retail platforms. We show that consumer welfare can be reduced by unrepresentative product recommendations and that consumer-optimal product recommendations depend on both consumer learning and competition between platforms.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 4","pages":"1299-1332"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144740149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Frontmatter of Econometrica Vol. 93 Iss. 4","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA934FM","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA934FM","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 4","pages":"i-ii"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144740415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Comment on: “Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, With an Application to Immunization in India” by Victor Chernozhukov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo, and Iván Fernández-Val","authors":"Stefan Wager","doi":"10.3982/ECTA23293","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA23293","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We use the martingale construction of Luedtke and van der Laan (2016) to develop tests for the presence of treatment heterogeneity. The resulting sequential validation approach can be instantiated using various validation metrics, such as BLPs, GATES, QINI curves, etc., and provides an alternative to cross-validation-like cross-fold application of these metrics. This note was prepared as a comment on the Fisher–Schultz paper by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fernández-Val, forthcoming in Econometrica.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 4","pages":"1171-1176"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144740471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bayesian CART models for aggregate claim modeling","authors":"Yaojun Zhang ,&nbsp;Lanpeng Ji ,&nbsp;Georgios Aivaliotis ,&nbsp;Charles C. Taylor","doi":"10.1016/j.insmatheco.2025.103136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.insmatheco.2025.103136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes three types of Bayesian CART (or BCART) models for aggregate claim amount, namely, frequency-severity models, sequential models and joint models. We propose a general framework for BCART models applicable to data with multivariate responses, which is particularly useful for the joint BCART models with a bivariate response: the number of claims and the aggregate claim amount. To facilitate frequency-severity modeling, we investigate BCART models for the right-skewed and heavy-tailed claim severity data using various distributions. We discover that the Weibull distribution is superior to gamma and lognormal distributions, due to its ability to capture different tail characteristics in tree models. Additionally, we find that sequential BCART models and joint BCART models, which can incorporate more complex dependence between the number of claims and severity, are beneficial and thus preferable to the frequency-severity BCART models in which independence is commonly assumed. The effectiveness of these models' performance is illustrated by carefully designed simulations and real insurance data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54974,"journal":{"name":"Insurance Mathematics & Economics","volume":"125 ","pages":"Article 103136"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144749841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Critical minerals lists for low-carbon transitions: Reviewing their structure, objectives, and limitations","authors":"Raphael Deberdt ,&nbsp;Nicole M. Smith ,&nbsp;Jordan L. Calderon ,&nbsp;Scott K. McCall","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104252","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104252","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Critical minerals lists have flourished in the past decade, in particular linked to the importance of critical minerals for low-carbon transitions. We identified 27 critical minerals or materials lists across 15 countries and the European Union (EU). These lists are designed to attract public and private attention and investments to secure both domestic and foreign supplies. This review article fills a gap in the existing literature by analyzing the ways in which these lists are defined and utilized by countries engaged in a mineral rush. We focus our attention on three categories of minerals – battery minerals, platinum-group metals (PGMs), and rare earth elements (REEs) that are particularly important to energy transitions. We situate this research in the broader legal and administrative developments that have driven critical minerals policies in the past decade. We provide an in-depth analysis of the commonalities and variations in the raw materials included in these lists, and identify six core limitations of critical minerals lists: (1) unclear links between criticality assessments and mineral prioritization (2) failure to account for the full mineral value-chain; (3) limited strategic alignment between allied nations; (4) limited flexibility in dynamic environments (5) limited consideration for recycling and by-product sourcing; and (6) reliance on incomplete reserve and resource data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 104252"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144739418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Selecting the Most Effective Nudge: Evidence From a Large-Scale Experiment on Immunization","authors":"Abhijit Banerjee,&nbsp;Arun G. Chandrasekhar,&nbsp;Suresh Dalpath,&nbsp;Esther Duflo,&nbsp;John Floretta,&nbsp;Matthew O. Jackson,&nbsp;Harini Kannan,&nbsp;Francine Loza,&nbsp;Anirudh Sankar,&nbsp;Anna Schrimpf,&nbsp;Maheshwor Shrestha","doi":"10.3982/ECTA19739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19739","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>Policymakers often choose a policy bundle that is a combination of different interventions in different dosages. We develop a new technique—<i>treatment variant aggregation</i> (TVA)—to select a policy from a large factorial design. TVA pools together policy variants that are not meaningfully different and prunes those deemed ineffective. This allows us to restrict attention to aggregated policy variants, consistently estimate their effects on the outcome, and estimate the best policy effect adjusting for the winner's curse. We apply TVA to a large randomized controlled trial that tests interventions to stimulate demand for immunization in Haryana, India. The policies under consideration include reminders, incentives, and local ambassadors for community mobilization. Cross-randomizing these interventions, with different dosages or types of each intervention, yields 75 combinations. The policy with the largest impact (which combines incentives, ambassadors who are information hubs, and reminders) increases the number of immunizations by 44% relative to the status quo. The most cost-effective policy (information hubs, ambassadors, and SMS reminders, but no incentives) increases the number of immunizations per dollar by 9.1% relative to the status quo.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 4","pages":"1183-1223"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA19739","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144740328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum: Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution","authors":"Jesús Fernández-Villaverde,&nbsp;Samuel Hurtado,&nbsp;Galo Nuño","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22259","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Part of the focus&lt;/span&gt; of our paper “Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution” was the discussion of the presence of two stochastic steady states (SSSs): a high-leverage (HL-SSS) and a low-leverage one (LL-SSS).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We have found that if the number of points in the grid of aggregate debt &lt;i&gt;B&lt;/i&gt; increases, the HL-SSS disappears for a range of calibrations close to the baseline parameterization. We have not found any evidence regarding the presence of the HL-SSS for other parameterizations. Furthermore, the degree of state dependency on households' impulse response functions (IRFs) is smaller. We must emphasize that this is a purely numerical issue: the neural network algorithm that we propose is correct and the code that we posted online is bug-free. Unfortunately, we did not select enough grid points for &lt;i&gt;B&lt;/i&gt; (a numerical hyperparameter that controls the accuracy of the results) to yield stable numerical results. Nonetheless, what we see as the two main contributions of our paper, namely, the introduction of a new neural network algorithm to solve heterogeneous agent models with aggregate shocks and the nonlinear estimation of continuous-time models, remain unchanged.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Furthermore, the model of financial frictions with heterogeneity is still quite nonlinear, since:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Figure 1 shows, in the phase diagram, the impact of increasing the number of grid points in the dimension of aggregate debt &lt;i&gt;B&lt;/i&gt;. The top left panel replicates Figure 5 in our original paper, where we used four grid points and a forward scheme. In the top right panel, we switch from a forward scheme to an upwind scheme to ensure the stability of our procedure (otherwise, it is numerically difficult to get the algorithm to converge with more than four grid points). In both top panels, we see two SSSs: the HL-SSS and the LL-SSS. In particular, the right top panel shows that switching to an upwind scheme is not central to our argument.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the left bottom panel, we increase the number of grid points to eight (now with the upwind scheme). We can see now that the HL-SSS disappears, and only the LL-SSS remains. The bottom right panel checks the case with 16 grid points for completeness. We have tried alternative calibrations around the baseline one, and this result seems to hold for eight and 16 grid points.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Notice how the PLM for debt displays a nonlinear shape, with a change in concavity happening in the region between the LL-SSS and the DSS. Consequently, despite only crossing once at the LL-SSS, the PLMs for constant equity and debt run almost parallel and very close, as in the version with three crosses in our paper. This explains why the ergodic distribution will occupy a similar region of the state space.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To illustrate this point, Figure 2 displays the ergodic distribution generated with 16 grid points. It covers a region similar to the one plotted in Figure 9 in the paper. The main difference is that, instead of peaking around","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 4","pages":"1491-1496"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22259","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144740468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}