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Interactive effects of economic, geopolitical, and climate risks on commodity volatility 经济、地缘政治和气候风险对商品波动的相互影响
IF 4.5 4区 经济学
Journal of Commodity Markets Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100518
Thomas Leirvik
{"title":"Interactive effects of economic, geopolitical, and climate risks on commodity volatility","authors":"Thomas Leirvik","doi":"10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100518","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100518","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study employs a quantile moments approach to examine how economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), and climate risks affect commodity return volatility. By incorporating interaction effects, we show that models ignoring these interactions underestimate volatility by up to 35% during stress periods. The analysis reveals varied effects across different volatility regimes, with transition climate risk intensifying market volatility particularly during turbulent times, whereas physical climate risk exhibits a mitigating effect. These findings offer valuable implications for risk management and policy coordination in commodity markets, highlighting the importance of considering interaction effects both normal and volatile market conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45111,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commodity Markets","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100518"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145320599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Searching for the external validity of social preference games: A guide of field environments based on expert perceptions 寻找社会偏好博弈的外部有效性:基于专家感知的领域环境指南
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107251
Daniel Navarro-Martinez , Sergio Pirla
{"title":"Searching for the external validity of social preference games: A guide of field environments based on expert perceptions","authors":"Daniel Navarro-Martinez ,&nbsp;Sergio Pirla","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107251","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107251","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The last couple of decades have witnessed a lively debate on the external validity of social preference games. Yet, scientific progress in this area has been restrained by the difficulty of delineating the field environments that social preference games should generalize to. Here we present three studies investigating the field environments and behaviors to which social preference games are expected to relate, according to specialist researchers. In Study 1, we systematically reviewed all the papers published in the top 5 economics journals that used social preference games, and we analyzed the field settings explicitly linked to the games by the authors. In Study 2, we used large language models to expand our analysis of the literature beyond the top 5. In Study 3, we conducted a survey among members of the Economic Science Association (ESA) mailing list to investigate the field environments they viewed as most closely associated with different social preference games. Overall, our results provide a rich guide to the types of field settings that are expected to relate to social preference games, according to the people who use them. This guide constitutes a useful reference to organize future research on external validity and make it more systematic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 107251"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145321660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Taking the green pill: Macroeconomic and financial risks of the energy transition in the MATRIX model 吃绿色药丸:MATRIX模型下能源转型的宏观经济和金融风险
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107283
Emanuele Ciola , Enrico Maria Turco , Massimiliano Carlo Pietro Rizzati , Davide Bazzana , Sergio Vergalli
{"title":"Taking the green pill: Macroeconomic and financial risks of the energy transition in the MATRIX model","authors":"Emanuele Ciola ,&nbsp;Enrico Maria Turco ,&nbsp;Massimiliano Carlo Pietro Rizzati ,&nbsp;Davide Bazzana ,&nbsp;Sergio Vergalli","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107283","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107283","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the macro-financial risks of the energy transition using an extended MATRIX model, a multi-agent, multi-sector integrated assessment framework for the Euro Area. The model features endogenous, directed technical change in the energy sector and a decentralized electricity market operating under a merit-order rule. Energy firms switch technologies based on relative profitability, creating feedback loops between R&amp;D, productivity, and competitiveness, that can lead to either a brown lock-in or a green energy transition. We compare conventional environmental policies, such as a brown tax on polluting firms’ profits, a carbon tax on emissions, and green subsidies — both unconditional and R&amp;D-based — with alternative policy mixes, including coordinated monetary policy, green finance, and green industrial policy. Results show that conventional policies modestly increase the likelihood of a green transition, but entail significant GDP losses due to production and financial constraints. Green finance and industrial policy mitigate these costs by easing sectoral bottlenecks and fostering a more effective transition. Finally, the brown tax proves more effective than carbon tax, as polluting firms tend to pass carbon costs onto consumers, reducing its impact.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"239 ","pages":"Article 107283"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145321704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Productive vocation - A methodological proposal for the analysis of territorial factors of localization and specialization as drivers of development 生产性职业-分析本地化和专业化作为发展驱动力的地域因素的方法论建议
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102357
Sergio Soza-Amigo , Claudio Mancilla , Luz María Ferrada , Jorge Parada
{"title":"Productive vocation - A methodological proposal for the analysis of territorial factors of localization and specialization as drivers of development","authors":"Sergio Soza-Amigo ,&nbsp;Claudio Mancilla ,&nbsp;Luz María Ferrada ,&nbsp;Jorge Parada","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102357","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102357","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents the phenomenon referred to as Productive Vocation (PV), which is a methodological proposal of this study to measure and promote the economic development of territories. PV is defined as the existence of high productive sensitivity (elasticity) in response to a group of structural similarities (labor, productive capacity, functionality, specialization, entrepreneurship, among others) and interaction with other territories. The study focuses on the nodal centers of the Chilean macrozones Norte Chico and Patagonia from 2008 to 2018 as reference territories.</div><div>It was observed that the presence of this PV allows centers to act as true engines of development, with similarity and interaction fostering productive relationships. However, given the differences between the two macrozones, policies must be tailored to each territory, taking into account the variables that sensitize productive exchange.</div><div>Finally, it was observed how smaller centers (or intermediate cities) pressure and complement the larger ones to increase their sensitivities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102357"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145323617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why buy multiple electric vehicles? The roles of vehicle ownership, charging access, and energy choices in California 为什么要买多辆电动车?在加州,车辆所有权、充电通道和能源选择的作用
IF 7.4 2区 经济学
Energy Research & Social Science Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104391
Trisha V. Ramadoss , Alan Jenn , Adam Wilkinson Davis , Gil Tal
{"title":"Why buy multiple electric vehicles? The roles of vehicle ownership, charging access, and energy choices in California","authors":"Trisha V. Ramadoss ,&nbsp;Alan Jenn ,&nbsp;Adam Wilkinson Davis ,&nbsp;Gil Tal","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104391","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104391","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Switching to electric vehicles will help decarbonize personal transportation, but there may be resistance to electrifying all the vehicles in a household. Vehicle ownership is high in the United States, with over half of households owning two or more vehicles. Electric vehicles are a new technology and there is still much unknown about initial adoption, let alone behavior around subsequent purchases. Early research indicates there are obstacles to owning several electric vehicles at the same time. This work is among the first to study this topic, identifying factors that explain the decision to own multiple electric vehicles. Using a series of cross-sectional questionnaire surveys, we identify households that acquired two or more electric vehicles concurrently (25 %) and others that chose to only acquire one (75 %). Electric vehicles comprise vehicles that fully or partially utilize electricity as fuel and can plug-in to charge. Responses are from 4400 California households between 2015 and 2020 who acquired two or more new vehicles, including at least one electric vehicle. We use logistic regression to determine the most influential behaviors, characteristics, and vehicle choices that differentiate these households. Results indicate that there is lower ownership of multiple electric vehicles in households with fewer vehicles or households that own vehicles of certain larger body styles. On the other hand, several other factors correlate with higher adoption including previously owning electric vehicles, access to moderately fast electric vehicle charging at home, household solar, and using an electric vehicle to commute.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 104391"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the impact of payments for environmental services on a bioeconomic supply chain equilibrium 评估环境服务支付对生物经济供应链平衡的影响
IF 3.4 2区 经济学
European Review of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbaf031
Arnaud Z Dragicevic, Jean-Christophe Pereau, Serge Garcia
{"title":"Assessing the impact of payments for environmental services on a bioeconomic supply chain equilibrium","authors":"Arnaud Z Dragicevic, Jean-Christophe Pereau, Serge Garcia","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbaf031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaf031","url":null,"abstract":"This study evaluates the effectiveness of Payments for Environmental Services (PES) in mitigating both climate change and biodiversity loss within bioeconomic supply chains. Employing a variational inequality approach within a multicriteria decision-making framework, complemented by numerical simulations using an optimized machine learning algorithm, we find that reductions of approximately 50 per cent in greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss are attainable. However, PES alone are insufficient to achieve these targets. A comprehensive strategy—combining a moderate reduction in production through economic decoupling, increased environmental awareness, and targeted incentives—is necessary for meaningful reductions. Our findings also indicate that supply chain participants collectively forgo 11.36 per cent of their profits when internalizing environmental externalities. Meanwhile, consumers are willing to pay only a 4.04 per cent premium for sustainable products, implying that a significant portion of these costs cannot simply be transferred to consumers. Consequently, firms must invest in greener production methods and abatement technologies to sustain profit margins while mitigating environmental impacts.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":"130 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145295776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Towards evidence-based approaches to monitoring and evaluatingage-friendly cities and communities: Reflections from the Western Pacific and Nordic Regions 采用循证方法监测和评估老年友好型城市和社区:来自西太平洋和北欧地区的思考
IF 4.7 1区 经济学
Urban Studies Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1177/00420980251375852
Wenqian Xu, Minna Zechner, Thava Viknaraj Sivabalan, Lian Leng Low, Changwoo Shon, Honglin Chen, Arlind Reuter, Diane Turner, Elisa Tiilikainen, Emi Kiyota, Susanne Iwarsson
{"title":"Towards evidence-based approaches to monitoring and evaluatingage-friendly cities and communities: Reflections from the Western Pacific and Nordic Regions","authors":"Wenqian Xu, Minna Zechner, Thava Viknaraj Sivabalan, Lian Leng Low, Changwoo Shon, Honglin Chen, Arlind Reuter, Diane Turner, Elisa Tiilikainen, Emi Kiyota, Susanne Iwarsson","doi":"10.1177/00420980251375852","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00420980251375852","url":null,"abstract":"Age-Friendly Cities and Communities (AFCC) is a key global WHO initiative aimed at fostering environments that promote healthy aging for everyone. As AFCC initiatives continue to expand, there is an increasing need to enhance monitoring and evaluation systems to effectively assess their progress and impact. However, significant knowledge gaps persist, particularly in the development of evaluation methods and AFCC indicators. Drawing on discussions and outcomes from an international, interdisciplinary expert meeting on age-friendly environments held in Shanghai in May 2024, this article offers a synthesis of key insights and reflections. We present examples from AFCCs in the Western Pacific and Nordic regions, and recommendations to enhance monitoring and evaluation with a focus on indicators. This includes defining clear objectives, addressing the diverse needs of target groups, tailoring evaluation methods, and assessing both the processes and outcomes of AFCC initiatives. Regarding AFCC indicators, we argue that several areas require further attention, including the need for a robust framework that emphasizes equity and inclusivity and the varied experiences of older adults. For example, this framework should guide the development of indicators that address older adults’ needs during life transitions, reflect societal transitions, and leverage interconnected age-friendly domains to promote health and well-being. We recommend developing AFCC indicators through participatory and developmental processes that encourage stakeholder engagement, particularly involving older adults. Research is needed to develop context-specific indicators and evaluation tools through local and regional studies, validate the indicators across diverse contexts, and incorporate global best practices for using indicators to achieve policy impact.","PeriodicalId":51350,"journal":{"name":"Urban Studies","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145295991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Agent-based insight into eco-choices: Simulating the fast fashion shift 基于代理的生态选择洞察:模拟快速时尚转变
IF 6.3 2区 经济学
Ecological Economics Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108824
Daria Soboleva , Angel Sánchez
{"title":"Agent-based insight into eco-choices: Simulating the fast fashion shift","authors":"Daria Soboleva ,&nbsp;Angel Sánchez","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108824","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108824","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fashion is a powerful force in the modern world. It is one of the most accessible means of self-expression, thereby playing a significant role in our society. Yet, it is plagued by well-documented issues of waste and human rights abuses. Fast fashion in particular, characterized by its disposable nature, contributes extensively to environmental degradation and CO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> emissions, surpassing the combined outputs of France, Germany, and the UK, but its economic contributions have somewhat shielded it from criticism. In this paper, we examine the demand for fast fashion, with a focus on Spain. We explore the individual decision-making process involved in choosing to buy fast fashion and the role of awareness regarding working conditions, environmental consequences, and education on sustainable fashion in influencing consumer behavior. By employing Agent-Based Modeling, we investigate the factors influencing garment consumption patterns and how shifts in public opinion can be achieved through peer pressure, social media influence, and government interventions. Our study revealed that government interventions are pivotal, with the state’s campaigns setting the overall tone for progress, although its success is conditioned by social media and polarization levels of the population. Importantly, the state does not need to adopt an extremely proactive stance or continue the campaigns indefinitely to achieve optimal results, as excessive interventions yield diminishing returns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 108824"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145314932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Squaring the circle of the circular economy. The need to properly account for scarcity to guide mineral resource management 实现循环经济的目标。需要适当考虑稀缺性,以指导矿物资源管理
IF 6.3 2区 经济学
Ecological Economics Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108817
Cati Torres , Alicia Valero , Antonio Valero , José Manuel Naredo
{"title":"Squaring the circle of the circular economy. The need to properly account for scarcity to guide mineral resource management","authors":"Cati Torres ,&nbsp;Alicia Valero ,&nbsp;Antonio Valero ,&nbsp;José Manuel Naredo","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108817","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108817","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the last decades, extractivism and its derived socio-ecological impacts have increased exponentially, suggesting that prices of minerals are poor indicators of their absolute scarcity. Aware that we need to move towards a more circular economy (CE), we propose a methodology which builds on the use of an exergy-based indicator of absolute scarcity to create the much-needed taxonomy of mineral substances to make CE-oriented policies more effective. This indicator will not only allow overcoming the limitations usually attributed to physical indicators as scarcity's proxy measures. Transcending the usual mass-based approach to absolute scarcity, it warns that depletion is more about the loss of mineral quality than quantity, which is fundamental in a physical world governed by the Law of Entropy where ore grades decline over time. Even more, beyond enabling the calibration of economic tools to ensure we move towards circularity, this indicator can also set the basis for designing depletion charges targeted at raising social awareness and putting upward pressure on prices well before reserves are exhausted. Our methodology will also allow providing new insights into mineral price formation. By warning that we must learn from the biosphere, we argue that society can reach sustainability if it increases the use of renewable resources while moving towards that of abundant, recyclable, and physically easy-to-obtain mineral substances. In so doing, not only we show the importance of interdisciplinary work. We also point to the relevance of integrating weak and strong sustainability approaches in economics, thus avoiding the existing divorce between monetary and physical analyses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 108817"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145314847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal land-for-property real exchange options 土地换财产的最优实物交换方案
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112654
Duarte Moura , Paulo J. Pereira
{"title":"Optimal land-for-property real exchange options","authors":"Duarte Moura ,&nbsp;Paulo J. Pereira","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112654","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112654","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops a real options framework to analyze land-for-property exchange agreements under uncertainty, focusing on the effects of bargaining power and impatience. We show that while bargaining power reallocates value without altering investment timing, impatience leads to earlier investment and destroys surplus, affecting only the impatient party. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating time preferences and negotiation dynamics in the design of incentive-compatible development contracts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"257 ","pages":"Article 112654"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145326601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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