经济学最新文献

{"title":"Embedding urban food policies into commons thinking: A framework analysis of policies and initiatives","authors":"Cinzia Tegoni,Elisa Carloni,Gianluca Di Fiore,Matteo Brambilla,Claudia Giordano","doi":"10.1177/00420980261486693","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00420980261486693","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51350,"journal":{"name":"Urban Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149152807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Daughter vs. daughter-in-law: Kinship roles and women's time use in India","authors":"Tanu Gupta,&nbsp;Digvijay S. Negi","doi":"10.1111/dpr.70107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.70107","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Women's labour force participation in India remains low despite improvements in education and economic conditions. Household organization and kinship relations may shape women's opportunities for paid work by influencing how unpaid work is allocated among women within the same family.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines whether women's participation and time allocation differ according to their kinship position within Indian joint households. In particular, it compares daughters-in-law with unmarried daughters of comparable age and educational attainment residing in the same household.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We use nationally representative data from India's Periodic Labour Force Survey and Time Use Survey. Using household fixed effects and controlling for age and education, we compare daughters-in-law and unmarried daughters within the same household. Additional comparisons involving married daughters, mothers-in-law, narrower age groups, and households with and without children assess alternative explanations for the observed differences.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Daughters-in-law are less likely to participate in paid employment and substantially more likely to undertake domestic work than unmarried daughters. Time-use estimates show that daughters-in-law spend about 245 additional minutes per day in home production, including domestic chores and caregiving, while spending less time in paid employment, learning, socializing, leisure, and self-care. They also spend more time on religious activities. These patterns remain across several alternative samples and comparisons and are consistent with an important role for kinship position and household hierarchy in women's time allocation.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy Implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Policies seeking to increase women's participation in paid work may need to address household- and community-level norms, bargaining constraints, and expectations surrounding unpaid work alongside conventional interventions focused on skills, employment opportunities, and childcare. Because the analysis is descriptive, these implications should be interpreted as suggestive rather than causal.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"44 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dpr.70107","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Industrialization and social mobility within a city: evidence from interwar Turin","authors":"Giacomo Plevani","doi":"10.1093/jeg/lbag073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbag073","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article asks whether industrialization raises intergenerational mobility within cities. I study Turin, a major Italian industrial hub, using repeated 5 per cent samples of the 1911, 1921, and 1936 population censuses digitized from household family sheets. I construct occupation-based earnings scores and measure relative mobility with the Information Content of Surnames (ICS). Citywide ICS falls by about one-half, and upward mobility from the bottom rises. These gains are sharply concentrated among residents of the industrial belt, where mechanical and metallurgical jobs expand. Area-level ICS measures surname–occupation sorting among current residents rather than childhood exposure to neighborhoods; the evidence indicates that industrialization operated through both local occupational upgrading and within-city reallocation toward the expanding industrial belt.","PeriodicalId":48251,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Geography","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149209724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inventory surprises and futures calendar spreads in grain markets","authors":"Yao Yang,Andrew McKenzie,Andrew Anderson","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbag021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article examines whether corn and soybean calendar spreads respond to unexpected changes in USDA ending stocks forecasts reported in WASDE. Consistent with the theory of storage, we find that positive inventory surprises move adjusted calendar spreads toward full financial carry (i.e., toward zero), whereas negative surprises make them more negative. Our results demonstrate that inventory news matters more when convenience yield is relatively high. In addition, we find that larger WASDE inventory surprises lead to greater volatility in calendar spreads. We also show that surprises generally move futures prices across the forward curve in the same direction, but nearby contracts respond more strongly than deferred contracts. Overall, our results confirm the value of WASDE reports and futures markets in efficiently allocating grain over time.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149209762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Real Cost Channel and Optimal Labor Taxation at the Zero Lower Bound","authors":"Haoan Wang,&nbsp;Haochun Ma,&nbsp;He Nie","doi":"10.1111/jpet.70145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jpet.70145","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We study optimal labor income taxation at the zero lower bound in a New Keynesian model with a real cost channel (RCC). With costless state-contingent taxation, optimal inflation and output are invariant to the RCC. A unified wedge identity determines the tax correction that offsets the RCC, increasing the crisis tax hike and attenuating the recovery tax cut under fiscal forward guidance. We then introduce the cost of state-contingent tax revisions, under which the RCC can affect the optimal allocation by altering implementation costs. The difference between optimal taxes contains both the RCC correction and an allocation-adjustment term, with the latter vanishing in the costless benchmark.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47024,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economic Theory","volume":"28 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Threading the needle: The delicate art of designing debt-for-nature swaps","authors":"Alexander Dryden","doi":"10.1111/dpr.70105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.70105","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Debt-for-nature swaps (D4NS) have re-emerged as a potential instrument to address the dual challenges of sovereign-debt distress and environmental degradation. Despite their growing use, particularly since 2021, their effectiveness as a “triple win” for debt relief, fiscal space, and conservation outcomes remains unclear, with existing evidence largely fragmented and case-study-based.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article aims to evaluate the effectiveness of D4NS across their evolution and to identify the conditions under which they can simultaneously deliver meaningful debt relief and environmental outcomes. It asks: how have D4NS performed across different generations and what design features are required to improve their impact?</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The study compiles a transaction-level database of 169 D4NS across 45 countries between 1987 and 2025. Building on earlier historical inventories, the database harmonizes available information on the face value of debt treated, repurchase terms, and environmental proceeds, enabling comparisons across transactions and generations. It introduces a financial assessment framework based on three core metrics: debt volume, repurchase discount, and environmental proceeds. These metrics are used to compare swaps across time and document recurring empirical patterns in their fiscal and environmental performance.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The analysis shows that early D4NS were environmentally effective but small in scale, while later generations achieved larger volumes, but often at the cost of weaker environmental outcomes and limited net debt relief. Nearly 70% of swaps occur during periods of debt distress, indicating that meaningful discounts, and thus fiscal gains, are rarely available outside crisis conditions. Overall, most swaps fail to simultaneously achieve all three objectives.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy Implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>D4NS are not a standalone solution but can play a complementary role in debt and climate strategies if carefully designed. The paper proposes a fourth generation of D4NS centred on a pre-funded distressed-debt facility to capture market dislocations, enabling larger-scale debt relief and improved environmental outcomes through faster and more opportunistic execution.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"44 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dpr.70105","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Caribbean SIDS productivity collapse: Growth accounting evidence and policy pathways for revival","authors":"Olugbenga A. Onafowora","doi":"10.1111/dpr.70097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.70097","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Motivation&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have fallen off-track on multiple Sustainable Development Goals due to a sustained post-2000 productivity collapse that eroded earlier Millennium Development Goals gains. With the 2030 deadline approaching, restoring productive capacity is both an economic and development urgency, with direct implications for SDG 8 (decent work and economic growth), SDG 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure), SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy), and SDG 13 (climate action).&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Purpose&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;This study documents and explains the long-term growth deceleration in Caribbean SIDS and identifies a sequenced structural reform agenda to reverse it. Taking the growth accounting diagnosis of Amundsen et al. (2025) as the empirical baseline, the article asks: which productivity components drive the slowdown, and what reforms could restore growth momentum and re-engage the region with the SDGs? The primary contribution is a policy-oriented companion analysis that links aggregate patterns to microeconomic constraints and develops an actionable, politically realistic, three-phase reform package.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Approach and Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Growth accounting decomposes real GDP growth and potential output across two periods (1981–2000 and 2001–2019) for 15 Caribbean economies, with real GDP growth also reported for 1980–2000 and 2001–2023. Contributions from total factor productivity (TFP), human capital, population, and physical capital are estimated and compared, with robustness checks across capital share, depreciation, and human capital specifications. The findings are linked to microeconomic constraints through firm-level and sectoral evidence framed as hypotheses consistent with the aggregate residual.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Findings&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Average real GDP growth fell from 2.64% to 1.45%, while potential growth declined from 3.3 to 1.6 percentage points. TFP contributions collapsed 83% (0.6 to 0.1 pp) and human capital plus population contributions fell 53% (1.5 to 0.7 pp); together these productivity-related factors explain 76% of the deceleration. A three-phase reform agenda follows: regulatory digitalization and e-government (Phase I); financial deepening via digital payments and insolvency reform (Phase II); and renewable energy transition through regional cooperation (Phase III).&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Policy Implications&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Macroeconomic stabilization is necessary but insufficient. Coordinated structural reforms tar","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"44 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pricing RMB Policy Risk: Evidence From Onshore and Offshore FX Option Markets","authors":"Nan He,&nbsp;Tan Wang","doi":"10.1111/irfi.70106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.70106","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper examines how onshore and offshore RMB option markets price potential shifts in China's RMB exchange rate regime. We calibrate a regime-switching option pricing model to USD/CNY and USD/CNH options to recover daily risk-neutral parameters summarizing the pricing of regime-switching risk, including the risk-neutral switching probability, the size of a possible RMB realignment, and exchange-rate volatility under a possible new regime. This allows us to quantify and compare policy-related tail-risk pricing embedded in option prices over the past decade. The results show that CNH options price larger potential RMB devaluations and higher exchange-rate volatility under a possible new regime than CNY options, especially during stress periods, whereas CNY options imply higher risk-neutral switching probabilities. An event study around the introduction of the countercyclical factor further shows that CNY and CNH option-implied risk-neutral distributions evolved differently before and after the policy announcement. These findings point to segmented risk-neutral pricing of RMB policy-related risk across onshore and offshore option markets.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46664,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Finance","volume":"26 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimation of Global Crop Area Elasticities: A Bayesian Approach","authors":"Sunghwi Woo,&nbsp;Shawn Arita,&nbsp;Wyatt Thompson","doi":"10.1111/agec.70150","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70150","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study estimates the crop-specific area elasticities for 10 countries or regions using Bayesian methods to ensure that the results are consistent with the expectations suggested by economic theory and applied economics. Important outcomes are as follows. First, a rich set of elasticities and first derivatives are provided that go far beyond any recently published paper to support applied economic analysis of market commodity supplies and changing land use of key crop-producing countries and regions. Second, double-cropping can induce unexpected area responses, such as positive cross-effects. Third, the expected returns of the major crops in a country, such as corn in the United States and soybeans in Brazil, potentially lead to a greater increase in the total crop area than other crops. Fourth, total land constraints reduce parameter uncertainty but highlight potential differences between reallocating land versus cropland expansion and contraction.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"57 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Institutional Changes, Effective Demand, and Inequality: A Structuralist Model of Secular Stagnation","authors":"Vinicius Curti Cícero,&nbsp;Daniele Tavani","doi":"10.1111/meca.12499","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12499","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper addresses the factors driving economic stagnation and inequality in the US over recent decades. We study a demand-driven model with joint adjustment of the functional distribution and capacity utilization in the short run, and explore the dynamics of wealth accumulation and labor productivity growth in the long run. Our analysis formally explains several stylized facts observed in the US economy in the neoliberal period: the decline in labor share of income, the increase in the top 1% wealth share, the slowdown in labor productivity growth, and the reduction in the income-capital ratio. Institutional changes that weakened workers' bargaining power or strengthened firms' market power have reduced the labor share of income. While these changes may have initially stimulated short-term economic activity and accumulation, their long-term effects are concerning. In particular, a lower labor share negatively impacts labor productivity growth and, in turn, slows down the growth rate of the economy in the long run. To achieve balanced growth, the rate of capacity utilization must eventually decrease. Importantly, our model's long run boils down to a simple 2D dynamical system in the capitalist wealth share and the labor share of income. Our findings demonstrate that an institutionally-driven decline in the labor share exacerbates wealth inequality and ultimately depresses demand in the long run; and that taxation of capital gains can lower both wealth and income inequality. These results point to the importance of policies counterbalancing the labor-crushing developments of the past decades.</p>","PeriodicalId":46885,"journal":{"name":"Metroeconomica","volume":"77 4","pages":"392-409"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2026-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/meca.12499","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}