经济学最新文献

{"title":"Insider trading with penalties in continuous time","authors":"Umut Çetin","doi":"10.1016/j.jet.2025.106061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jet.2025.106061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper addresses the question of how insiders internalize the additional penalties to trade in a continuous time Kyle model. The penalties can be interpreted as non-adverse selection transaction costs or legal penalties due to illegal insider trading. The equilibrium is established for general asset distribution. In equilibrium, the insider does not disseminate her private information fully into the market prices. Moreover, she always trades a constant multiple of the discrepancy between her own valuation and her forecast of market price right before her private information becomes public. In the particular case of normally distributed asset value, the trades are split evenly over time for sufficiently large penalties, with trade size proportional to the return on the private signal. Although the noise traders lose less when penalties increase, the insider's total penalty in equilibrium is non-monotone since the insider trades little when the penalties surpasses the value of the private signal. As a result, a budget-constrained regulator runs an investigation only if the benefits of the investigation are sufficiently high. Moreover, the optimal penalty policy is reduced to choosing from one of two extremal penalty levels that correspond to high and low liquidity regimes. The optimal choice is determined by the amount of noise trading and the relative importance of price informativeness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48393,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Theory","volume":"228 ","pages":"Article 106061"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144748958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Old money: Campaign finance and gerontocracy in the United States","authors":"Adam Bonica ,&nbsp;Jacob M. Grumbach","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105451","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105451","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Politicians in the United States rank among the oldest globally. This study examines how money in politics contributes to age inequality in political representation. Using record-linkage to construct a novel data set combining the ages of voters, donors, and candidates, we find that the median dollar in US elections comes from a 66-year-old — significantly older than the median voter, candidate, or elected official. Results from within-district and within-donor analyses confirm that age proximity with candidates increases contributions on the extensive and intensive margins. Finally, we simulate candidate fundraising by age under a hypothetical campaign finance voucher policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"249 ","pages":"Article 105451"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144749193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing livability through human need theory: Insights from Vienna","authors":"Tobias Riepl ,&nbsp;Simon Grabow","doi":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.106336","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.106336","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Livability is a central principle in urban planning. However, dominant global indicators like the Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU) Global Livability Ranking fail to capture socio-spatial inequalities due to arbitrary evaluation criteria. To address this gap, we operationalize human need theory to measure foundational livability — defined as the capacity of a place to ensure access to essential services required for need satisfaction, such as healthcare, housing, or culture. We develop the Foundational Livability Indicator (FLI), a novel livability metric grounded in human need theory that combines geospatial methods with two key accessibility dimensions: (i) availability, measured via the container method, and (ii) affordability, estimated through households' residual income after covering essential service costs.</div><div>To demonstrate this approach's value, we apply the FLI to Vienna's 23 municipal districts, a city regularly ranked top by global indicators. Our results reveal significant socio-spatial disparities, including a clear mismatch between service availability and affordability. While availability clusters in central and north-western districts, affordability is higher in the north-west. Consequently, foundational livability is highest in the north-west, moderate in the center, and lowest in southern and eastern districts.</div><div>Our study responds to global calls for grounded, theory-informed livability metrics by introducing an indicator that is robust, replicable, and adaptable to varied contexts. In addition to situating our findings within broader urban trends — such as the cost-of-living crisis — we critically reflect on our methodology and outline avenues for future research, including integrating environmental quality and defining absolute thresholds for foundational livability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48405,"journal":{"name":"Cities","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 106336"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144738213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Neural Conformal Inference for jump diffusion processes","authors":"Hyeong Jin Hyun,&nbsp;Xiao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Bayesian inference for jump diffusion processes (JDPs) remains challenging due to intractable transition densities and the latency of jump times and intensities. This paper introduces Neural Conformal Inference for JDPs (NCoin-JDP), a novel likelihood-free approach that leverages the power of deep neural networks (DNNs). NCoin-JDP bypasses the limitations of traditional methods by establishing a direct mapping between observed data and model parameters using a DNN. This approach eliminates the discretization errors inherent in likelihood-based methods, leading to more accurate inference. Despite the black-box nature of DNNs, we establish the asymptotic theory to quantify the approximation error of our algorithm. Additionally, we calibrate the uncertainty of our estimations using conformal prediction, providing theoretical guarantees of equivalence with the Bayesian posterior. NCoin-JDP demonstrates competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods. We showcase its effectiveness through numerical simulations and apply it to real-world data (S&amp;P 500 and NASDAQ, 1993–2024) to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on the US economy. All numerical studies are reproducible in <span><span>https://github.com/anonymous1116/NCoin-JDP</span><svg><path></path></svg></span>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 106061"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144739500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is energy aid a panacea for energy poverty? Evidence from developing countries","authors":"Xiao-Yu Xu ,&nbsp;Jia-Hui Peng ,&nbsp;Ke-Liang Wang ,&nbsp;Zhen-Hua Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114809","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114809","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy poverty remains a critical barrier to sustainable development in the 21st century, particularly in developing countries. Energy aid, which includes financial assistance, technology transfer, and policy cooperation from developed nations and international organizations, has been increasingly utilized to alleviate energy poverty. However, the effectiveness of energy aid in reducing energy poverty and the mechanisms through which it operates remain underexplored. This study employs a panel dataset covering 48 developing countries from 2010 to 2019 to empirically examine the impact of energy aid on energy poverty. Using the system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) approach, the findings confirm that energy aid significantly reduces energy poverty. Moreover, the study identifies two key mechanisms: (1) energy aid promotes energy structure upgrading, facilitating the transition to cleaner energy sources and improving energy accessibility and affordability; and (2) governance quality plays a crucial moderating role, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of energy aid utilization. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of energy aid varies by income level, population density, and the severity of energy poverty, with aid being more effective in higher-income and lower-density regions. These findings offer useful guidance for policymakers, highlighting the need for well-planned energy aid programs, stronger governance, and better energy infrastructure to ensure fair and lasting energy access.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"206 ","pages":"Article 114809"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144748867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic viability and risk management of auger mining in Indonesia using real option valuation under volatile market conditions","authors":"Abdullah Alghani,&nbsp;Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105690","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105690","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coal is one of the commodities that contribute the most to Indonesia's GDP, as well as to other coal-exporting countries such as Australia, China, India, and others. Currently, many coal companies in Indonesia face challenges in optimizing their coal reserves to increase profitability. One method that has proven effective from both technical and economic perspectives is auger mining. However, with global coal prices declining in 2023 after experiencing a significant increase following the pandemic in 2022 (Iea, 2023), the economic feasibility of auger mining for companies, particularly in the long term, has come into question. This research is the first study aimed at assessing the economic feasibility of auger mining using DCF simulation, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), and Real Option Valuation (ROV) Binomial Lattice, based on a real-case problem under uncertain coal market conditions, and evaluating the risks of its implementation.</div><div>This study aims to assess the feasibility of auger mining based on three scenarios: Auger Type A (higher productivity with higher mobilization cost) under Standard and Aggressive Utilization, and Auger Type B (lower productivity with lower mobilization cost) under Standard Utilization. Based on the analysis using the DCF method, all three scenarios yield positive economic values (NPV, IRR, and PI). However, the Auger Type A Standard Utilization scenario was selected for further analysis using the MCS and ROV methods, as it is considered the most realistic scenario both technically and in terms of medium-level economic valuation compared to the other two scenarios. According to the DCF analysis, the Auger Type A Standard Utilization scenario has an NPV of $1.71 million, with a break-even point that is relatively close to the base-case coal price ($52.24/ton), decreasing by only $5.27 (10.08 %). The risk of the project having a negative NPV in the future is 25 % (MCS) and 38 % (ROV). The ROV – Binomial Lattice analysis provides an added option value of $0.16 million if the project is terminated at any future point.</div><div>Based on these results, the auger project does have a positive NPV but is considered moderate-to-high risk. Therefore, several recommendations are needed to improve the project's valuation and minimize risks, such as minimizing operational costs, including the break-even coal price in work contracts, optimizing the values of Physical Availability (PA) and Utilization Availability (UA), and negotiating flexibility for terminating the project in the future if the NPV becomes negative.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"108 ","pages":"Article 105690"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144738263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Fourth Italy: a contemporary account of the Italian economic geography","authors":"Stefania Fiorentino, Nicholas A Phelps","doi":"10.1093/jeg/lbaf032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbaf032","url":null,"abstract":"We update Bagnasco’s work on the Third Italy and its interpretative model of Italy’s economic geography adding a Fourth Italy to the existing taxonomy of productive systems. This new conceptual model frames the emergence of Italian Entrepreneurial Ecosystems (EEs) of start-ups in several cities. We describe their characteristics, localization, and institutional patterns. The Fourth Italy and its cognitive capitalist production highlights some situated agglomeration externalities. Current policies supporting EEs have often exacerbated existing patterns of uneven development, following a logic of economic convergence. We call for place-sensitive policy at the meso-level, to enhance the regenerative power of EEs and the development of the Fourth Italy.","PeriodicalId":48251,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Geography","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144755882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"VAT incidence in real VAT systems","authors":"Giacomo Brusco ,&nbsp;Tejaswi Velayudhan","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105447","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105447","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the price impacts of Value Added Tax (VAT) in the presence of size-based exemptions, which are set relatively high in the firm-size distribution in developing contexts. In addition to the standard determinants of tax incidence, we show that pass-through of VAT to consumer prices will depend on the substitutability of registered and unregistered varieties of taxed goods, on pass-through at upstream stages, and on the extent of segregation between registered and unregistered supply chains. The exemption can also distort the quality of goods produced. We show that these mechanisms are empirically important in the context of a VAT in India, where those who consume at unregistered firms nevertheless bear some of the tax burden.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"249 ","pages":"Article 105447"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144749192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Broadband cities: Bridging urban-rural consumption gap with digital innovation","authors":"Jiaping Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiaomei Gong ,&nbsp;Mingwang Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.106315","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.106315","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While the urban-rural income gap has long attracted scholarly attention, research on the urban-rural consumption gap is relatively scarce. Based on the broadband China policy and panel data from 283 cities, a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model is established to examine the impact of digital technology on the urban-rural consumption gap. The results show that the implementation of the policy significantly reduces the urban-rural consumption gap. Mechanism analysis indicates that at the national level, promoting digital inclusive finance and alleviating first-level digital divide are the potential influence channels. Besides, improvements in market performance, as measured by e-commerce development, only play a mediating role in the central region. However, the findings also suggest that a higher level of digital divide (captured by the urban-rural income gap) may offset these benefits. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the narrowing effect is stronger in economically underdeveloped cities, larger cities, cities at a lower administrative level, and cities with a high level of population aging. These findings shed light on the role of digital technology in promoting inclusive development and provide targeted policy insights for narrowing urban-rural disparities in the digital era.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48405,"journal":{"name":"Cities","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 106315"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144750203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sectoral effects of development aid on post-war violence: spatially disaggregated evidence from the Great Lakes region","authors":"Lucas Kori Leonhard","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107144","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107144","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the 1990s and early 2000s, Africa’s Great Lakes region experienced some of the most devastating conflicts in recent history. Following a fragile peace negotiated in the mid-2000s, international donors allocated over $38 billion in development aid to support stabilization across the region. This study evaluates the effectiveness of these efforts through a spatially and sectorally disaggregated analysis of over 100 districts and provinces in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, and Burundi. To ensure robust inference, I employ a combination of negative binomial regression with coarsened exact matching on subnational administrative units and difference-in-differences estimations on locally defined buffer zones.</div><div>The results demonstrate that the impact of development aid on violence is highly contingent on the sectoral orientation of the projects. Health and social protection projects are consistently associated with a statistically significant reduction in violence, while infrastructure-stimulating projects do not affect the occurrence of violence. In contrast, there are indications that education and economic-developing projects could be problematic. Strikingly, these findings mirror evidence from conflict-affected settings in Afghanistan, suggesting broader patterns in how development aid works in fragile environments.</div><div>This research highlights the limitations of one-size-fits-all development strategies and underscores the importance of tailoring aid to the political, social, and cultural context of recipient communities. It provides important insights for both policymakers and scholars, calling for a more nuanced and context-sensitive approach to post-conflict development cooperation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"195 ","pages":"Article 107144"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144738867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}