工业工程最新文献

{"title":"[Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Dynamics in Typical Lake Basins of China].","authors":"Wen-Ting Huang, Qiang-Yu Dai, Yong Xu, Yu-Xi Feng, Bin Zou, Yun-Gui Lu","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202405006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202405006","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Monitoring vegetation dynamics and isolating as well as quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation cover changes are crucial for providing theoretical support for maintaining regional ecological balance and scientifically planning ecological restoration. This study focuses on the Dongting, Poyang, and Taihu Lake basins. Using multi-temporal normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） data, meteorological data, and land use data and employing methods, such as trend analysis, first-order difference multiple regression analysis, and residual analysis, this research investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of vegetation NDVI changes in these basins from 2000 to 2022, distinguishing between natural growth areas and anthropogenic impact areas. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2022, vegetation in the Dongting, Poyang, and Taihu Lake basins, including both anthropogenic impact areas and natural growth areas, exhibited a greening trend. Overall, compared to precipitation and solar radiation, the NDVI of vegetation in the three major lake basins was more sensitive to temperature. Vegetation growth in these basins exhibited a consistently positive sensitivity to temperature, whereas it predominantly showed a negative sensitivity to precipitation. Climate change has promoted an increase in vegetation NDVI across the three lake basins. In anthropogenic impact areas, human activities predominantly drove the changes in vegetation NDVI, with the effects being bidirectional. Specifically, in the Dongting and Poyang Lake basins, human activities mainly had a positive impact on vegetation NDVI, whereas in the Taihu Lake Basin, the impact was predominantly negative.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 5","pages":"2987-2996"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144102821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Effects of Typical Microplastics on Methanogenesis and Antibiotic Resistance Genes in Anaerobic Digestion of Sludge].","authors":"Ming Xu, Peng Gao, Hao-Qiang Chen, Yuan Gao, Shi-Jin Xiong, Xiang-Hua Wang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202405273","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202405273","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Waste sludge is an important carrier of antibiotic resistance genes （ARGs） and an important place for the enrichment of microplastics （MPs）. To explore the impacts of typical MPs on sludge recycling and harmless disposal, the effects of polyamide （PA）, polyethylene （PE）, and polypropylene （PP） MPs on the methanogenesis efficiency of anaerobic digestion were investigated. Meanwhile, based on metagenomic sequencing, the effects of MPs on ARGs, mobile genetic elements （MGEs）, microbial community structure, and host bacteria during anaerobic digestion were analyzed. The results showed that PA-MPs, PE-MPs, and PP-MPs increased the distribution of methane production by 2.2%, 22.3%, and 28.8%, respectively. MPs promoted methanation by improving the dissolution and hydrolysis efficiency of organic matter, and the enrichment of hydrogenotrophic methanogens by PP-MPs further improved the methanogenic efficiency. PA-MPs contributed to the removal of ARGs, while PE-MPs and PP-MPs had adverse effects on the reduction of ARGs. Horizontal gene transfer mediated by integron and insertion sequences was an important factor in the spread of ARGs. Proteobacteria was the key host leading to the diffusion of ARGs. The removal of pathogens from Bacteroidetes by anaerobic digestion contributed to the reduction of ARGs. The selective enrichment or inhibition of <i>Arenimonas</i>, <i>Acinetobacter</i>, <i>Actinobacillus</i>, <i>Nitrospira</i>, and other important host bacteria by MPs was the major cause for the difference in the removal effect of ARGs.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 5","pages":"3189-3199"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144102670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Urban Ozone Driving Factors Based on Explainable Machine Learning].","authors":"Chao-Long Wang, Lian Xue, Yi-Sheng Zhang, Xiao-Fei Qin, Yuan Fang, Wen-Xin Tao, Jin-Hua Du, Su-Fan Zhang, Guan Wang, Da-Sa Gu, Shan-Shan Cui","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202404320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202404320","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Sixteen sites in the coastal city of Qingdao, including eight national control sites, seven provincial control sites, and one background site, were selected. By coupling the extreme gradient boosting （XGBoost） model with the interpretability SHapley Additive exPlanations （SHAP） module, the impact of meteorological elements and atmospheric pollutant emissions on ozone （O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;） pollution was investigated. The results indicated that from 2019 to 2023, meteorological factors contributed 67.7% to O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; formation, whereas emissions from atmospheric pollutants accounted for 32.3%. Surface solar radiation significantly affected O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; formation from 10：00 to 17：00. A positive correlation existed between temperature and O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; concentration, peaking at 14：00. A relative humidity below 70% was conducive to O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; formation and a relative humidity above 70% had a 94% probability of negatively contributing to O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; production. Particularly between 12：00 and 16：00, relative humidity significantly and positively contributed to O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; formation. When the boundary layer height was below 500 meters, it positively affected O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; concentration, whereas above this height, its impact weakened. In the morning and late afternoon, boundary layer height promoted the formation of O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; concentration. Easterly （E） to southwesterly （SW） winds had a positive effect on O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations in Qingdao. NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; showed a negative response in the morning （06：00-11：00） and a positive response in the afternoon （12：00-15：00）. PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; had a nonlinear positive correlation with O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;, positively affecting O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; concentration from 07：00 to 14：00 PM and suppressing it from 15：00 to 18：00. Significant differences existed in the dominant factors of O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; concentration across different areas and seasons. In the western Laoshan District, Yangkou, the western site of the Shinan District, and eastern and western parts of the West Coast New Area, surface solar radiation had a noticeably lower impact on O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; than in other locations. The effect of NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; was most significant in the eastern parts of the West Coast New Area, western Laoshan District, and Yangkou. PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; affected O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; formation more in these sites than in others of Qingdao. In spring, the impact of NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; was more significant in the western Laoshan and Shinan Districts. In summer, surface solar radiation was more influential in Yangkou, the eastern and western parts of the West Coast New Area, the western Laoshan District, and the Shibei District, whereas, relative humidity was the key factor in other locations. In autumn, temperature and surface solar radiation were the main factors affecting O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;. In winter, the contribution of NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; was higher than that in different seasons, with anthropogenic emissions playing a more important role in O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; ","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 5","pages":"2642-2653"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144102725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Research Progress on Component Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Dissolved Organic Matter in Water Bodies of the Yangtze River Basin].","authors":"Xian-Qiang Lai, Bo Gao, Dong-Yu Xu","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202402128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202402128","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Dissolved organic matter （DOM） is a complex mixture that includes humus, proteins, and other water-soluble organic compounds. Its characteristics have a notable impact on the environmental behavior of various pollutants in the water environment within a basin. The characteristics of DOM components were conducted in both the mainstream and tributaries, with a discussion of the factors that influence DOM in the Yangtze River Basin. Finally, the future challenges to be addressed were identified. The compositional characteristics of DOM in the waters of the Yangtze River Basin showed significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity, which was mainly manifested by significant differences in DOM concentration, aromaticity, degree of humification, composition, molecular diversity, and source of the main tributaries, lakes, and reservoirs （horizontal and vertical） of the Yangtze River in different geographical locations and seasons. These differences were mainly influenced by climate and hydrology, human activities, and land use patterns along the river basin. Currently, research into the characteristics of DOM components in the Yangtze River Basin is still in its preliminary stages, with a particular focus on surface water bodies. In recent years, the development and application of Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry and other technical means have enabled high-resolution analysis of DOM at the molecular level. It is recommended that a study be conducted immediately on the evolution of DOM component characteristics in the Yangtze River Basin over a long time series, large scale, and multiple media, to further reveal the influence, including changes in DOM component characteristics on the environmental geochemistry of pollutants and their ecological effects on a basin scale.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 5","pages":"2719-2731"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144102852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Driving Force Analysis of Vegetation Cover Change in Greater Khingan Mountains Ecological Functional Area Based on KNDVI].","authors":"Zi-Hao Wang, Bing Wang, Qiu-Liang Zhang, Ru-la Sa","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202404062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202404062","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Greater Khingan Mountains, as the sole cold temperate coniferous forest region in China, possess paramount ecological value and importance. Investigating the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and the underlying driving factors in the Greater Khingan Mountains is crucially important for the ecological preservation of this region, for China's ecological security, and for advancing sustainable development. By utilizing the MOD09GA dataset, we constructed the kernel normalized difference vegetation index （KNDVI） as a metric for assessing vegetation growth conditions. Employing methodologies, such as Theil-Sen slope analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and the Hurst index, we examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of the vegetation within the Greater Khingan Mountains ecological function area and projected its future developmental trends. Utilizing the optimal parameter geographical detector, we identified the key environmental factors influencing vegetation cover changes in the Greater Khingan Mountains. The findings indicate that： ① From 2001 to 2020, vegetation cover in the Greater Khingan Mountains exhibited a progressive decline from north to south in spatial distribution, with the KNDVI increasing at a rate of 0.03 （10 a）^-1. ② From 2001 to 2020, the spatial distribution pattern of vegetation cover in the Greater Khingan Mountains maintained a consistent northeast-southwest orientation, demonstrating a migratory trend towards the northeast. ③ Changes in land use type were determined to be the primary factor influencing vegetation cover changes in the Greater Khingan Mountains ecological function area. ④ Compared to individual factors, the interplay among multiple factors provided a more comprehensive explanation of the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of vegetation cover. These research outcomes offer valuable insights into the intrinsic mechanisms of vegetation change in the Greater Khingan Mountains ecological function area, inform sustainable development strategies, and provide a scientific basis for addressing global climate change challenges.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 5","pages":"3021-3032"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144102856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Construction and Assessment of Ecological Security Pattern in Gansu Along the Yellow River Based on Zonation-MSPA Coupling Model].","authors":"Jin-Feng Yu, Huai-Yu Du, Jia-Liang Wang, Yuan Zhang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202405065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202405065","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>To effectively realize the ecological protection and restoration of the national land space, exploring the construction of the ecological security pattern of the national land space and the identification of key areas for ecological protection and restoration and proposing targeted restoration strategies to maintain the national ecological security are important. In this study, based on the importance of ecosystem services and ecological sensitivity, the coupled Zonation-MSPA model is used to identify ecological sources, and the circuit theory is used to extract ecological corridors, ecological pinch points, and ecological barriers； to construct an ecological security pattern and evaluate the ecological security pattern by using the graph theoretic method； and to identify and determine the ecological protection and restoration key areas of the national land space in the study area. The study revealed that： ① There were 60 ecological source sites and 112 ecological corridors in Gansu along the Yellow River, including 43 key ecological corridors. ② The ecological security pattern of Gansu along the Yellow River was generally characterized by the spatial feature of \"four verticals, four horizontals, and three zones,\" and the network circuits and connectivity were at a medium level. The key areas for ecological protection and restoration in Gansu along the Yellow River were identified as follows： 126 ecological pinch points, mainly distributed in the Longzhong area, with the current land mainly consisting of arable land and grassland and most of the current land around the ecological pinch points consisting of construction land. There were 475 ecological obstacle sites, including 106 primary obstacle sites and 369 secondary obstacle sites, and the current land was mainly cropland, grassland, and river. Combined with the spatial distribution characteristics of the key areas for ecological protection and restoration in the study area and the current land types to be restored, the restoration measures for each type of key areas for ecological protection and restoration are proposed, which will provide reference for the optimization of the ecological security pattern and ecological restoration in the Yellow River Basin.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 5","pages":"3085-3097"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144102869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Distribution Characteristics, Sources, and Enrichment Causes of Groundwater Fluoride in the Plain Area of Barkol-Yiwu Basin].","authors":"Xiao-Yu Zhang, Yan-Yan Zeng, Jing-Long Zhou, Ying Sun","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202405058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202405058","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>High fluoride （F^-） groundwater has been found in Barkol-Yiwu Basin, and a high F^- concentration will affect the health of local residents. Taking the groundwater in the plain area of Barkol-Yiwu Basin as the research object, the chemical characteristics of groundwater and the spatial distribution of F^- were analyzed using a Durov diagram and descriptive statistics method. Based on the relative importance ranking results of random forest, PMF source analysis revealed the source of F^- and combined it with the groundwater environment and hydrogeochemical effects to determine the enrichment causes of groundwater F^-. The results showed that the groundwater was mainly weakly alkaline fresh water, and the chemical types of high F^- groundwater were mainly Na type and SO₄ type. The variation range of F^- concentration in phreatic water was 0.16-2.54 mg·L^-1, with the excess rate of 18.8%, and the variation range of F^- concentration in confined groundwater was 0.23-1.25 mg·L^-1, with the excess rate of 37.5%. The overall F^- concentration in phreatic water was greater than that in confined groundwater. The high F^- groundwater was distributed in the northeast piedmont area of Barkol Lake, Kuisu Town, the western part of Santanghu Town, Dahongliuxia Township, Xialaoba Township, and Xiamaya Township of Yiwu County. The chemical composition of groundwater was affected by leaching-evaporation concentration, geological environment, and human activities, which contributed 39.1%, 31.6%, and 29.3%, respectively. The causes of F^- enrichment in groundwater mainly included leaching-evaporation concentration, mineral dissolution, and positive cation exchange. The results were important for formulating regional groundwater resources protection and management measures and improving groundwater quality in Barkol-Yiwu Basin.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 5","pages":"2745-2756"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144102456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Evaluation and Analysis of Carbon Reduction Effect of Domestic Waste Incineration Power Generation].","authors":"Chun-Hui Sang, Cao-Cao Chen, Po Wang, Jian-Qiang Guo, Xi-Min Hu, Chong Jia, Jing Liu, Yue Huang, Jing-Qi Dong, Hong-Zhen Zhang, Xiang-Lan Li","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202405249","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202405249","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The annual average carbon dioxide emissions were evaluated from a large-scale domestic waste incineration power generation project in Beijing using the Chinese Certified Emission Reduction （CCER） method. Compared with landfill methods without landfill gas recovery, the carbon reduction effect of this project was quantitatively assessed. The results showed that the baseline carbon emission （calculated by CO₂-eq, the same below） per unit of waste was 1.041 t·t^-1. The carbon emission of waste incineration power generation unit waste was 0.457 t·t^-1. The contribution of leakage emission was relatively low and the carbon emission per unit of waste was nearly zero. The main source of carbon emission came from waste incineration with carbon emission per unit of waste being 0.456 t·t^-1, accounting for 99.89% of the total waste incineration emission. The annual carbon emission reduction for the project, which incinerated 1.83 million t of waste per year, was 1.063 5 million t, with a carbon emission reduction per unit of waste of 0.581 t·t^-1. The results of this case study were important for establishing the carbon emission baseline in Beijing's waste management industry and achieving the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China. It serves as a crucial theoretical foundation for the development of comprehensive and refined carbon accounting standards and policy frameworks in the solid waste management sector.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 5","pages":"2945-2952"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144102722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Pollution Assessment and Source Apportionment of Heavy Metals in Soil of the Xining Basin].","authors":"Ya-Feng Zhang, Guo-Wen Miao, Qiang Ma, Zhen Yao, Lian-Zhen He, Shuai Wang, Xiao Shen, Lu Dai","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202405090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202405090","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>To comprehensively understand the status of heavy metal contamination in the topsoil of the Xining Basin in Qinghai Province, China, 2 396 samples of soil were analyzed for pH and eight heavy metals （Cd, Hg, As, Pb, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn）. This assessment evaluated the pollution levels and traced the origins of contamination using the geo-accumulation index, pollution load index, and potential ecological risk index methods. Spatial distribution characteristics of soil heavy metals were analyzed using inverse distance weighting interpolation, while correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and PMF models were utilized to identify the sources of pollution. The findings revealed： ① The average values of soil Cd, Hg, As, Pb, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn in the study area were 0.21, 0.034, 13.1, 23.5, 75.8, 25.5, 31.9, and 72.2 mg·kg^-1. Compared with the whole area of Qinghai Province, the soil Hg in the study area showed high accumulation, and Cd showed moderate accumulation. ② In the study area, two points （0.1%） exceeded the soil pollution risk control value, and 49 points （1.6%） exceeded the soil pollution risk screening value. The risk indicators were mainly As, Cd, and Cr, and the overall soil condition was good. ③ From a regional point of view, the comprehensive ecological risk in the study area was low. Locally, Hg and Cd were the main pollution risk factors, among which the potential ecological risk of Hg was the largest, followed by that of Cd. ④ Correlation analysis showed that there were two groups of element combination sequences of Cd-Pb-Zn and Cu-Cr-Ni in the study area, and the elements in each sequence had homology. Hg was independent exogenous. ⑤ Source analysis showed that there were three different types of sources of heavy metals in the study area. Factor one was a composite source of natural and industrial emissions, Factor two was a natural source, and Factor three was a source of industrial and transportation emissions. In view of the above conclusions, it is suggested to strengthen the monitoring of natural sources and the blocking of human activity sources, so as to provide a scientific basis for the protection and restoration of the ecological environment of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 5","pages":"3237-3247"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144102833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Prediction and Path Analysis of Carbon Peak in Heilongjiang Province].","authors":"Zhao-Mei Gai, Ren-Tao Liu, Xin-Hua Liu, Ting Yu, Jie Liu","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202404114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202404114","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Heilongjiang Province, as a Chinese heavy industry base and major grain producing area, has faced notable challenges in recent years due to climate change. To effectively predict the trend of carbon emissions, the Bayesian optimization algorithm, isomap algorithm, and support vector machine algorithm were integrated to construct a carbon emission prediction model. The results demonstrated that the integrated prediction model exhibited excellent generalization ability, with a correlation coefficient of 0.99 during the training phase, and maintained generalization ability with a correlation of 0.81 during carbon emission fluctuations for satisfactory prediction accuracy. Carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province were forecast to peak at 381 million tons by 2035 through low-carbon development, five years ahead of baseline projections with a 6.39% cut. This peak would come ten years sooner than that under high-speed growth, reducing emissions by 17.06%. Analysis with the Tapio Decoupling Index Model （2012~2019） showed an unstable decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions but a positive trend in energy intensity vs. emissions. Discussions are underway based on these forecasts and decoupling insights to outline pathways for Heilongjiang to reach its carbon peaking goals earlier.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 5","pages":"2828-2836"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144102841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}