工业工程最新文献

{"title":"[Spatio-temporal Interactions Between \"Spatial-economic-demographic\" Carbon Strength and Ecosystem Services in the Shandong Section of the Yellow River Basin].","authors":"Zhi-Yu Wang, Chang Lu, Xue-Qin Cai, Xin Zhao","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202404053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202404053","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Exploring the spatio-temporal interactions between \"spatial-economic-demographic\" carbon strength and ecosystem services can effectively reveal the correlation and evolutionary differences between human social development and natural ecology under land-use change and provide a reference for comprehensive and high-quality development in the region under the goal of \"double carbon.\" Taking the Shandong Section of the Yellow River Basin as an example, ecosystem services and carbon strengths of spatial, economic, and demographic dimensions were measured at the county scale from 2000 to 2020, the interaction elasticity index （IEI） was built to quantify the spatio-temporal interactions between each dimension's carbon strengths and ecosystem services, and the pattern of multi-dimensional interaction zoning and countermeasure suggestions were explored. The results showed that： ① The spatial and demographic carbon strengths were mainly changed positively, whereas the economic carbon strength was more negatively changed； the high values of the composite index of ecosystem services were concentrated in the east, and the index showed an overall increasing trend. ② The interaction between spatial and demographic carbon strength and ecosystem services was an ecological absolute decline relationship from 2005 to 2010, the ecological absolute increase relationship increased from 2010 to 2020, and the interaction between economic carbon strength and ecosystem services was dominated by an ecological invisible increase relationship. ③ The pattern of multi-dimensional interaction zoning was characterized by significant spatial and temporal variations, with the number of three-dimensional ideal interaction zones being the highest from 2010 to 2015, and two-dimensional undesirable interaction zones being the most widespread type of zoning. Multi-dimensional spatio-temporal interaction analysis could be used to explore the regional development situation from multiple dimensions, and the Shandong Section of the Yellow River Basin had more \"spatial-demographic\" undesirable interaction zones, the effect of green and low-carbon transformation was not obvious, and the enhancement of ecosystem services was poor and still needs to be improved.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 3","pages":"1573-1584"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143671281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Toxicology of Nanoplastics to Aquatic and Terrestrial Organism: A Critical Review].","authors":"Wen-Tao Hong, Zhen-Yu Li, Fan Wu, Meng-Xi Cao, Hao-Bin Zhao","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202403057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202403057","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Microplastics （MPs） and nanoplastics （NPs） pollution have gradually become a global environment issue. Due to the vast surface area of NPs, environmental pollutants tend to adhere to the surface of NPs and enter into the body of organisms. After being taken in, NPs would accumulate in the organs of the biosome or transfer into the body of their offspring, hampering the health of the offspring. This paper reviews the way NPs enter different organisms, how NPs accumulate in the body of the biosome under different exposure methods, and the role of protein corona in terms of NPs accumulation. Moreover, this paper reviews the toxicological effects and their mechanisms posed by different NPs to the biosome through different exposure approaches. It provides reference to future research on the toxicological effects, environmental risk, and even the possible human health threat of NPs.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 3","pages":"1868-1884"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143671364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Effects of Nanomembrane Covering and <i>Bacillus</i> Inoculant Application on Bacterial Community Structure, Key Clusters, and Substance Transformation Process in Aerobic Manure Composting System of Livestock and Poultry].","authors":"Zheng-Guo Bu, Jie Long, Tao Yang, Xia-Wei Peng, Yong-Shuang Li, Long Wan, Xiu-Qin Wu, Zhi-Hui Bai","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202312091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202312091","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><i>Bacillus</i>, which has good cellulase secretion function, heat resistance, and good environmental adaptability, plays a key role in aerobic composting. In the aerobic composting process, nanomembrane coating can provide a suitable microclimate； however, the role of it in promoting the function of <i>Bacillus</i> inoculants in the aerobic composting system remains clear. In this study, the fermentation experiment of tank aerobic compost was set up, and four aerobic compost treatment groups were established： control group（CK）, single inoculation of <i>Bacillus</i>（CB）, nanomembrane covering（CM）, and nanomembrane covering combined with <i>Bacillus</i> inoculation（BM）. The effects of nanomembrane covering and <i>Bacillus</i> inoculation on aerobic compost were discussed. The effects of microbial community structure on microbial metabolic activity in aerobic compost were analyzed using redundancy analysis and the bacterial ecological network. The results showed that the BM treatment could promote the degradation of organic matter and increase the temperature of the reactor. After adding <i>Bacillus</i>, the enzyme activity of the CM treatment changed more than that of the CK treatment. The relative abundance of Firmicutes and Actinobacteria, which are related to organic matter metabolism, is more abundant when covered by the BM treatment. Simultaneously, the relative abundance of core bacterial cluster 3 showed a significant positive correlation with the material conversion ability of aerobic compost, and the relative abundance of bacterial cluster 3 in the BM treatment group was observed to be higher than that in the other treatment groups.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 3","pages":"1915-1923"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143670093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Effects of Combined Pollution of Cd and Microplastics on Winter Wheat Based on the PLS Model: Phytotoxicity and Soil Properties].","authors":"Yue Chen, Hai-Kuan Cheng, Fu-Peng Chen, Chen-Chen Feng, Di Lin","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202403098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202403098","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>To explore the effects of heavy metals, microplastics, and their combined action on the growth, physiological ecology, and soil physicochemical properties of winter wheat （<i>Triticum aestivum</i> L.）, we sought to identify the major controlling factors and thus to provide a theoretical basis for revealing the physiological ecology response mechanism and ecological restoration of contaminated soil. Soil culture treatment experiments were conducted to study the effects of the heavy metal cadmium （Cd） （0 mg·kg^-1 and 5 mg·kg^-1） and polypropylene microplastics （PP-MPs） with different particle sizes （10 μm and 500 μm） and mass concentration （0, 0.5%, 1.0%, and 5.0%） on winter wheat growth, photosynthetic physiology, antioxidant enzyme activity, leaf anatomy, canopy temperature, soil nutrients, and soil enzyme activity. Moreover, a partial least squares （PLS） model was used to quantify the relationship between physical and chemical indicators and winter wheat growth status and to identify the major controlling factors. The results showed that the plant height, leaf area, and total biomass of winter wheat decreased by 10.3%-59.9%, 5.8%-94.2%, and 20.0%-84.0%, respectively, under the pollution condition of small particle size PP-MPs alone and combined with Cd. In addition, photosynthetic characteristics, such as photosynthetic efficiency and chlorophyll content of wheat leaves were significantly inhibited under the conditions of both pollutants. With the increase of pollution stress, the canopy temperature of the wheat population increased, and the leaf thickness decreased. Compared with that in CK, the superoxide dismutase （SOD）, peroxidase （POD）, and catalase （CAT） of leaves increased by 13.4%-99.0%, 45.5%-122.7%, and 2.8%-89.2%, respectively, and the interaction between them was extremely significant （<i>P</i>&lt;0.01）. In addition, Cd and PP-MPs also slightly increased the contents of soil organic matter, alkali-hydrolyzed nitrogen, available phosphorus, and available potassium and significantly improved the activities of soil urease, acid phosphatase, and dehydrogenase. In summary, the combined Cd-PP-MPs pollution had synergistic inhibition effects on the above indicators, and the inhibiting effects of 10 μm PP-MPs were significantly stronger than those of 500 μm. PLS results showed that soil acid phosphatase was the key control factor affecting the growth and development indices of winter wheat under the combined pollution stress of Cd and 10 μm PP-MPs, and soil available phosphorus was the key influencing factor of 500 μm large-particle size PP-MPs. The results provide reference for evaluating the ecological effects of heavy metal Cd and MPs combined pollution in the soil-plant system.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 3","pages":"1815-1830"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143671239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Analysis of Nitrate Sources in Different Rivers Flowing into the Sea Based on Nitrogen and Oxygen Isotopes].","authors":"Zhuo-Hang Xin, Peng-Juan Chang, Zhi-Hong Liu, Chang-Chun Song","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202401105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202401105","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The nitrogen flux from terrestrial input is the primary source of nitrogen load in estuarine areas, leading to ecological issues, such as coastal eutrophication and hypoxia. Systematically identifying the nitrogen sources from different rivers draining into the sea is a prerequisite for controlling the nitrogen pollution in estuarine areas. Based on the nitrogen and oxygen isotopes of 179 sampling sites across 12 rivers in Liaoning and Hebei Provinces, the nitrate sources of different rivers were systematically identified. Moreover, the stable isotope analysis in the R （SIAR） model was employed to quantitatively calculate the contribution rates of various pollution sources to river nitrate. The results indicated that nitrification was the primary process of nitrate transformation. For all 12 rivers, the contribution rate of animal manure and sewage ranged from 13.9% to 90.1% and that of soil nitrogen ranged from 4.3% to 54.0%. Additionally, for the Liaojiawa River, Xuanhui River, and Nanpai River in Cangzhou City, agricultural fertilizers were observed to have relatively high contribution rates, ranging from 25.2% to 64.4%. Overall, the nitrogen loads in these 12 rivers were highly disturbed by anthropogenic activities and the primary sources of nitrate varied among different rivers. Therefore implementing targeted and differentiated control measures in watershed nitrogen control and management is important.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 3","pages":"1371-1381"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143671130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Characteristics and Health Risks of Metal Elements in House Dust in Baotou].","authors":"Jing-Wen Wang, Hai-Jun Zhou, Yang-Chao Lü, Bing Sun, Xiao-Tao Fu, Xi Chun, Zhi-Qiang Wan","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202402097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202402097","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>To understand the potential impact of metal elements in house dust in heavy industrial cities on human health, house dust samples were collected from 46 residential quarters of four urban districts of Baotou city. The contents of 13 metal elements were determined, and the pollution characteristics, sources, and health risks of metal elements were analyzed. The results showed that the enrichment factors and geo-accumulation indices of anthropogenic metals （Pb, As, Cu, Fe, Cd, Cr, Ni, and Zn） were extremely high, indicating a high pollution degree. The concentrations, enrichment factors, and geo-accumulation indices of iron smelting-related elements （Fe, Mn, Cr, and V） were in the order of Kundulun district &gt; Qingshan district &gt; Jiuyuan district &gt; Donghe district, which was negatively correlated with the distance from the large iron smelting enterprise. Principal component analysis identified five sources： the iron and steel smelting source, natural source, nonferrous metal smelting source, traffic source, and coal combustion, among which iron and steel smelting and natural sources were the major sources of metal elements in house dust in Baotou. The results of health risk assessment suggested that ingestion and dermal contact were the major exposure pathways of metal elements in house dust in Baotou. The influence of the inhalation pathway could be ignored. All individual metal elements had no carcinogenic risk to adults or children. However, the combined action of all elements posed a certain non-carcinogenic risk to children. Ni, As, and Cr had carcinogenic health risks to both adults and children.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 3","pages":"1362-1370"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143671154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Distributions and Driving Factors of Hydrochemical Compositions in Different Types of Karst Groundwater in Qingjiang River Basin].","authors":"Hao Xie, Hao-Yong Shen, Hai-Dao Zhang, Yong-Sheng Lin, Jun Li, Hui-Ya Liang, Zhi-Heng Wang, Tian-Long Zhu, Sheng-Zhang Zou","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202401091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202401091","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The karst groundwater resource is the key water supply for native residents and industrial and agricultural production in karst regions of southwest China and is even the only water supply for rural regions. Understanding the formation mechanism of hydrochemical compositions is practically imperative to the sustainable development and utilization of karst groundwater resources. The hydrochemical ions of 34 karst spring samples and 12 underground river water samples from the Qingjiang River Basin were measured and analyzed in this study. On the basis of investigating the distribution characteristics of hydrochemical components, methods such as hierarchical clustering analysis, Gibbs model, and relationships between hydrochemical components were used to comprehensively reveal the chemical genesis mechanism of karst groundwater from the perspectives of water-rock interaction and anthropogenic activities, especially in the disturbance mechanism of acidic pollutants on the natural dissolution of carbonate rocks. The results showed that the karst groundwater in the Qingjiang River Basin was weakly alkaline （7.12 ≤pH ≤ 8.69）, and the overall water quality was good. Only the maximum concentration of NO₃^- in the karst spring （80.2 mg·L^-1） exceeded the maximum acceptable limit for drinking purposes （10 mg·L^-1 as N）. The Ca²⁺ and HCO₃^- were identified as the dominant ions, associated with the main water phrase of HCO₃-Ca·Mg in approximately 97.1% of karst spring samples and all underground river water samples. The dominant ions were derived from the strong dissolution of calcite, whereas Mg²⁺、SO₄^2-, and F^- were controlled by the weak dissolution of dolomite, gypsum, and fluorite, respectively. Karst groundwater NO₃^- was derived from the agricultural fertilizers and rainwater input, whereas the H₂SO₄ acid rain input was identified as another important source of karst groundwater SO₄^2-. In addition, the carbonate rocks in the study area were mainly naturally dissolved； however, the input of exogenous acid by humans has changed the original karst hydrogeochemical evolution process and further decreased the carbonate sink flux of karst aquifers, accelerated the decrease rate of karst groundwater table, and increased the pollution risks of karst groundwater.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 3","pages":"1417-1426"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143671226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Impact of Alpine Wetland Succession to Soil Bacterial Diversity].","authors":"Ri-Na Dao, Ying Zhang, Xi-Lai Li, Qiang Li, Lin-Xiong Ma, Xiao-Long Tie","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202403266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202403266","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study aims to explore the characteristics of change and the rules of response of the soil bacterial community structure and diversity during the evolution of alpine wetlands. It also seeks to identify the leading factors affecting changes in the soil bacterial community, with the goal of providing a scientific basis for the restoration and management of alpine wetland ecosystems. Three different types of wetlands （original alpine wetland, alpine wet meadow, and alpine meadow） were selected to represent the succession process of alpine wetlands. The composition and diversity of the soil bacterial communities were analyzed using high-throughput sequencing technology. The findings revealed the following： ① Proteobacteria and Acidobacteria were the predominant bacteria, with their relative abundance exceeding 20.08%. In the alpine wetland, Nitrosomonadaceae and <i>RB41</i> were the dominant bacteria. Meanwhile, Chthoniobacteraceae and <i>Candidatus_Udaeobacter</i> were the dominant genera in the alpine wet meadow and alpine meadow, respectively. ② Although no significant change was observed in community diversity, significant differences were present in the structure of the soil bacterial community at different succession stages （<i>P</i>&lt;0.05）. ③ Metabolism was a core function. ④ The Mantel test and Pearson correlation analysis indicated that soil pH and total phosphorus （TP） content were the primary factors influencing soil bacterial diversity throughout the succession process of alpine wetlands. During the process of reversed succession in alpine wetlands, changes in soil pH and nutrient content occur, and these changes collectively influence the structure and diversity of the soil bacterial community.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 3","pages":"1897-1904"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143671249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Spatio-temporal Variation, Meteorological Condition, and Regional Transport Characteristics of PM_2.5 Pollution Events in Beijing from 2018 to 2022].","authors":"Yuan-Xi Guo, Bao-Xian Liu, Yun-Ting Li, Xiu-E Shen, Shu-Xiao Wang, Qian Song, Chen Chen, Feng Sun, Yang Chen, Rui-Wen Sun, Qian Li, De-Jia Yin, Yue-Qi Jiang, Zhao-Xin Dong","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202403173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202403173","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Based on PM_2.5 monitoring data, meteorological observation data, and a CMAQ-ISAM air quality model, the spatio-temporal variation, meteorological conditions, and regional transport characteristics of 108 PM_2.5 pollution events in Beijing from 2018 to 2022 were analyzed. The results showed that the frequency, the mean concentration, and the peak concentration of PM_2.5 pollution events demonstrated a significant decrease and the decrease degree of moderate and heavy pollution events was significantly larger than that of light pollution events. From the seasonal perspective, the PM_2.5 pollution events nearly disappeared in summer, however, were severe in other seasons. According to the diurnal variation curves, PM_2.5 concentration during heavy pollution events decreased significantly from daytime to the first half of night and did not decrease notably in the second half of the night. In the past five years, the mean concentration of PM_2.5 pollution events was higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest, with the highest in the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Area and the lowest in Yanqing District. From the perspective of spatial evolution, the mean concentration in all districts significantly decreased from 2018 to 2022, with a decrease range of 13-31 μg·m^-3 and a decrease percentage of 11%-25%； the frequency in all districts also decreased significantly, with a decrease range of 35-52 days and a decrease percentage of 56%-68%. The mean wind speed, mean relative humidity, and northwest wind frequency were the three most important meteorological factors that had an impact on PM_2.5 concentration in Beijing. For polluted days, the mean wind speed was 1.6 m·s^-1, the mean relative humidity was 62.4%, and the frequency of northwest wind was 3%. Most of the pollution events began from Eastern Beijing and Southern Beijing. Compared to those throughout the whole city, PM_2.5 pollution events usually occurred 12 hours earlier at the southeast border station and 10, 8, and 5 hours earlier at the southern, southwest, and eastern border stations, respectively. During PM_2.5 pollution events in Beijing, the local contribution was 34%, and the transport contribution was 66%. Out of all nearby provinces, Hebei had the biggest contribution of 33%. With regard to cities, Baoding, Langfang, Tianjin, and Tangshan had the most prominent impact on Beijing's PM_2.5 pollution events, accounting for 9%, 6%, 5%, and 5% of the contribution, respectively. When it comes to transport pathways, the southeast pathway contributed 24% and the southwest pathway contributed 23%. The government must establish a regional joint prevention and control mechanism.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 3","pages":"1265-1274"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143671291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Multi-scenario Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Prediction in Tianjin Based on LEAP Model].","authors":"Bao-Zhu Li, Ya-Jie Liu, Shao-Cong Zhang","doi":"10.13227/j.hjkx.202403081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202403081","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals require China to reduce energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions. Taking Tianjin as an example, the carbon emission inventory was compiled, and the driving degree of each factor was identified by the logarithmic mean index method （LMDI）. Based on this, combined with scenario analysis, the LEAP-TJ model was constructed to explore the trend of terminal energy consumption and carbon emission in Tianjin from 2022 to 2060. The results showed that the economic scale was the first leading factor for the growth of terminal carbon emissions in Tianjin. Energy consumption and carbon emissions will continue to increase in the baseline scenario, and carbon emissions in 2060 will be 2.7 times those in 2021. Under the comprehensive scenario, Tianjin will realize the terminal peak carbon dioxide emissions in 2025, and its carbon emissions will be reduced by 85.1% compared with those under the baseline scenario in 2060, with a remarkable carbon emission reduction effect.</p>","PeriodicalId":35937,"journal":{"name":"环境科学","volume":"46 3","pages":"1492-1501"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143671317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}