众人解决全球问题的优势和劣势。

IF 10.5 1区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Perspectives on Psychological Science Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-07-10 DOI:10.1177/17456916231179152
Stephen B Broomell, Clintin P Davis-Stober
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引用次数: 0

摘要

全球气候变化、COVID-19 大流行病和社交媒体上错误信息的传播只是影响社会的极少数重大问题。我们认为,许多社会问题的大致轮廓都可以用 "群众智慧 "的视角来构建。这种框架可以让研究人员在一个简单的概念框架内重塑复杂的问题,并利用众智的已知结果。为此,我们提出了一个关于群众智慧优缺点的简单 "玩具 "模型,可以轻松地映射到许多社会问题中。我们的模型将个人的判断视为从旨在代表异质人群的分布中随机抽取的结果。我们使用这些个体的加权平均值来代表人群的集体判断。利用这种设置,我们表明子群体有可能产生截然不同的判断,并研究了它们对人群对社会问题做出准确判断的能力的影响。我们认为,未来有关社会问题的工作可以受益于基于人群智慧的更复杂、特定领域的理论和模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Strengths and Weaknesses of Crowds to Address Global Problems.

Global climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the spread of misinformation on social media are just a handful of highly consequential problems affecting society. We argue that the rough contours of many societal problems can be framed within a "wisdom of crowds" perspective. Such a framing allows researchers to recast complex problems within a simple conceptual framework and leverage known results on crowd wisdom. To this end, we present a simple "toy" model of the strengths and weaknesses of crowd wisdom that easily maps to many societal problems. Our model treats the judgments of individuals as random draws from a distribution intended to represent a heterogeneous population. We use a weighted mean of these individuals to represent the crowd's collective judgment. Using this setup, we show that subgroups have the potential to produce substantively different judgments and we investigate their effect on a crowd's ability to generate accurate judgments about societal problems. We argue that future work on societal problems can benefit from more sophisticated, domain-specific theory and models based on the wisdom of crowds.

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来源期刊
Perspectives on Psychological Science
Perspectives on Psychological Science PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
22.70
自引率
4.00%
发文量
111
期刊介绍: Perspectives on Psychological Science is a journal that publishes a diverse range of articles and reports in the field of psychology. The journal includes broad integrative reviews, overviews of research programs, meta-analyses, theoretical statements, book reviews, and articles on various topics such as the philosophy of science and opinion pieces about major issues in the field. It also features autobiographical reflections of senior members of the field, occasional humorous essays and sketches, and even has a section for invited and submitted articles. The impact of the journal can be seen through the reverberation of a 2009 article on correlative analyses commonly used in neuroimaging studies, which still influences the field. Additionally, a recent special issue of Perspectives, featuring prominent researchers discussing the "Next Big Questions in Psychology," is shaping the future trajectory of the discipline. Perspectives on Psychological Science provides metrics that showcase the performance of the journal. However, the Association for Psychological Science, of which the journal is a signatory of DORA, recommends against using journal-based metrics for assessing individual scientist contributions, such as for hiring, promotion, or funding decisions. Therefore, the metrics provided by Perspectives on Psychological Science should only be used by those interested in evaluating the journal itself.
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